Post on 15-Mar-2018
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Charles Situma (charles.situma@yahoo.com)
Vincent Mate Imala (vineima@yahoo.com)
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
DEPARTMENT OF RESOURCE SURVEYS &
REMOTE SENSING
(DRSRS)
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Institutional and Human Capacity
Satellite
Antenna
Survey aircraft
Established in 1976
In 1984 upgraded to a full-
fledged Department (DRSRS)
72%
28%Professional/T
echnical Staff
Administratio
n/Support
Staff
102 staff
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Fleet of Aircraft
4
DRSRS acquired a new survey
aircraft• Cessna with modern intercom
•Aircraft arrived on 16-7-2011
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
RC 30 Survey Camera
• Black and white film
• Colour film
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Administration
Director
Deputy Director
Technical Services
Accounts Supply Chain
Library Aerial Surveys
Ground Surveys
Remote Sensing
Data Management
Air Services
Assistant Director
Others
DRSRS STRUCTURE
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
DEPARTMENT OF RESOURCE SURVEYS AND REMOTE
SENSING (DRSRS)
MANDATE
DRSRS is mandated to capture,
store, update, analyze and
disseminate geo-spatial data and
information on earth-based natural
resources/environment to enhance
spatial planning and decision
making for sustainable development
Data collected and generated
form the basis for research,
development of management
plans and formulation of land
use policies
MISSION
“To generate, provide and
promote geo-information
on earth-based resources
in support of planning,
management and
decision-making for
sustainable
development”.
VISIONDRSRS strives to be a national centre of
excellence in geo-information services
on earth-based natural resources for
sustainable development
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
DRSRS Methods of Data Acquisition
OUTPUTS
Maps
Statistic
Models
Report
Multi-Stage Sampling Concept
Stage 1: Remote Sensing
Approach Orbiting Space Satellite (3,000 - 35,000
km)
Advantages: - Cheap, faster, synoptic,
covers
wide area and easily
comparable
Stage 3: Ground
Surveys/Measurement Attribute identification, scale
accuracy and socio-economic surveys
Cost Implication: Often expensive and time
consuming
Stage 2: Aerial Surveys
Low-High Flight Aircraft Aerial Photography (100-3,000m)
Animal Census (100-200m)
Costs Implication: Dependent on size
of
area, sampling resolution and efforts
Scale
Scale
Satellite Imagery - Land cover
High Level Photography:
Land cover / use
Wildlife Livestock
Conventional
Scientific
Methods
GIS Servers
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Overview of Crop Monitoring in Kenya
Started in 1984 following prolonged drought
episode
The impact was
Famine and hunger affected 60% of the
population
Over 17% of livestock were decimated
The cost incurred affected normal
Government development plan
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Impacts of Drought
Example: Year 2000 Drought Devastation
The government declared the episode a national disaster
WFP incurred US$ 102 million on food reliefin 2000 -2001
Example: Year 2008/9 Drought Devastation
Government spent in excess of US $. 169 million on relief food to combat the drought emergency
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
STRATEGY
• Launched a crop monitoring programme
using remote sensing techniques
•The Department of Resource Surveys and
Remote Sensing (DRSRS) was tasked to
undertake this exercise
•DRSRS mandated to provide statistical
estimates on area and yield under crop
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Overview of Crop Forecast in Kenya
Maize and wheat are the main staple food in Kenya
accounting for over 80 percent of total cereals used
at a household level
Rice is the third most consumed cereal
Each year the Food Steering Committee (FSC) of the
Office of State, Special Programmes require
information on Area, Yield and Production of these
cereals
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Overview of Major Food Crops in Kenya
Cereals: Maize, Wheat, Rice, Sorghum, Millet
Root
Tubers:Irish Pototoes, Sweet Pototoes,
Cassava, etc
Pulses Beans, peas, etc
Nuts Ground nuts, Cashew Nuts, etc
Livestock
ProductsMilk, Meat, etc
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Population density/Sq.Km
Low : <50
Moderate: 51 - 100
High: 101 - 500
Very high: >501
0 300 600 Kilometers
N
Legend
Spatial
Population
Distribution
60’s-70s
80’s-90’s90’s – 2000’s
70’s – 80’s
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Population growth and Shrinking land base of Kenya
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
2,60
2,70
2,80
2,90
3,00
3,10
3,20
3,30
3,40
3,50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1948 1962 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009
Gro
wth
rate
(%
)
Pop
ula
tion
(M
illi
on
s)
Years
Total Annual Intercensal growth rate (%)
Changes in population demography (1948-2009)
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Kenya’s projected rural and urban population, 1950-2050
By 2030, it is projected that 33 per cent of Kenyans will live in urban areas
Population as of 2010
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Users of maize and wheat crop data
RCMRD
FEWSNET
Universities/Research
Min of Agriculture
Bureau of Statistics
Min of State -FSC
Aerial
Photos
Satellite
Images
NDVI Crop
Area
Crop
Yield
Crop
Prod
NGOs
Private Firms
Individuals
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
METHODS
•Crop area stratification
•Estimation of area crop using vertical aerial photography
•Determination of crop yield per hectare
•Computation of crop production
•Computation of consumption
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Agriculture expansion between 1990’s and 2000’s
• Population of Kenya in 2009
census = 38,610,097 people
•20 % of Kenya support crop
cultivation significant to the
economy
•Kenya requires approx 31 - 34
million bags of maize and 9 -11
million bags of wheat annually
•Balance in food deficit met by
substantial quantities of rice,
potatoes and pulses produced
locally and also from imports
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Satellite Data for Determination of Crop Strata
•16 Landsat satellite
scenes cover agricultural
area of 33 scenes
•Cost: free for Landsat
•Cost: Aster = US D 1,520
•Economical
•Poor accuracy
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Satellite Data for Determination of Crop Strata
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
METHODS: ESTIMATION AREA
Aircraft:
•High winged twin or single engine
(P68 or Cessna )
•Flying height of 488 m (1600 ft)
Camera:
•A 35 mm camera, 20 mm wide-angle
lens
Photographs:
•Vertical
•Scale is approx. fixed at 1:22,000
•Area on ground 46 ha
GPS:
Set to UTM WGS 84 datum or Geographic
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
5Km
2.5Km
Photograph taken
Sample Dot-Grid for Vertical Photograph
Photos covering entire crop stratum
are: 10,000
Area under crop: 14,500 Sq Km
Cost: US D 72,375
Cost per photo: USD 7.8
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
# # # # # # # # # #
# # # # # # # # # #
# # # # # # # # # #
# # # # # # # # # #
##########
# # # # # # # # # #
# # # # # # # # # #
# # # # # # # # # #
# # # # # # # # # #
# # # # # # # # # #
# 100 Dot grid
N
100 0 100 200 Meters
Photo Interpretation: Dot-Grid technique
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Photo Interpretation: 100 Dot-Grid
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Photo Interpretation: 150 Dot-Grid
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Photo Interpretation: 200 Dot-Grid
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 50 100 150 200 250
Acc
ura
cy (
%)
No. of dots used
Accuracy levels in Photo Interpretation
Source: Sinange, 1996
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
S.F = Oρ/η
Where:
S.F = Sampling Fraction of the strata
Oρ = Total No. of sample (points) photos observed
with crop
η = Total No. of Points (photos) taken in district
strata
n
Hence: A = S.F ΣC (1/ Oρ *100)
i
Where:
A = Area of survey stratum (ha)
S.F = Sampling Fraction of the strata
Oρ = Total No. of sample photos observed with crop
n = nth photo in the strata
i = ith photo in the strata
Area of Crop
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
METHODS: DETERMINATION OF CROP YIELD
Tussled maize
Applies Remote Sensing
Techniques a ratio of near-
infrared and red band reflectance
(NIR-VIS)/(NIR+VIS) is a
surrogate for primary production
Tektronix J16 digital radiometer
•NIR -700 - 1300nm
• VIS - 400 - 700nm
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Relationship between Yield and ratio of R/IR –Embu District in 1984
y = 0,176x + 1,1745
R² = 0,6874
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Y
i
e
l
d
(
B
a
g
s
/
h
a)
Ratio of Red to Infra-Red
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Nakuru (R² = 0.957)
Narok (R² = 0.991)
Nyamira (R² = 0.994)
Mt Elgone (R² = 0.843)
Koibatek (R² = 0.962)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Pro
du
ctio
n (
90
Kg
bag
s)M
illio
ns
Yield by district (bags/ha)
Regression in Maize yield vs Production in selected districts 2004-07
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Regression……………………Cont’d
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Collateral Information
Crop calendar
LGP
Seasonal progression of rainfall pattern
Agronomic practices
Soil moisture
ETP
Crop growth model
Source: MoA, 2004
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Crop calendar
Wheat LR LP-P LP-S P W G TF M H H/CM
Maize
SR M H LP-P LP-S P W G
LR LP-P LP-S P W RW G TF M H H H/CM LP-P
H/CM H/CM
MO
NT
H
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Abbreviation Activity Abbreviation Activity
LP-P Land preparation - Primary TF Tussling/Flowering
LP-P Land preparation - Secondary M Maturing/Matured
P Planting H Harvesting
W Weeding CM Crop Marketing
RW Re-Weeding SR Short Rain
G Growing LR Long Rain
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Crop calendar Cont’d
Lake Region & Southern North Rift/Western Central & Eastern Coast
BOMET BUNGOMA EMBU KILIFI
BONDO KEIYO KIAMBU KWALE
BURET KERICHO KIRINYAGA MALINDI
BUSIA KOIBATEK LAIKIPIA
BUTERE/MUMIAS LUGARI MACHAKOS
GUCHA MARAKWET MAKUENI
HOMA BAY MT ELGON MARAGUA
KAKAMEGA NAKURU MBEERE
KISII CENTRAL NANDI MERU CENTRAL
KISUMU NYANDARUA MERU NORTH
KURIA TRANS NZOIA MERU SOUTH
MIGORI UASIN GISHU MURANGA
NAROK WEST POKOT NYERI
NYAMIRA THARAKA
NYANDO THIKA
RACHUONYO
SIAYA
SUBA
TESO
TRANS MARA
VIHIGA
Long rains maize
planting begin in
Feb - March,
harvesting in
July-Aug
Long rains
maize planting
begin in March -
April, harvesting
in September -
Dec
Long rains
maize planting
begin in
March,
harvesting in
July-Aug
Long rains
maize
planting begin
in March,
harvesting in
June-July
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Maize harvesting
Tussled maize
Land preparation
Maize marketing/ storage
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
No
v-8
2
No
v-8
3
No
v-8
4
No
v-8
5
No
v-8
6
No
v-8
7
No
v-8
8
No
v-8
9
No
v-9
0
No
v-9
1
No
v-9
2
No
v-9
3
No
v-9
4
No
v-9
5
No
v-9
6
No
v-9
7
No
v-9
8
No
v-9
9
No
v-0
0
ND
VI d
ev
iati
on
fr
om
no
rma
l
time
anomalies
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan-8
2
Jan-8
3
Jan-8
4
Jan-8
5
Jan-8
6
Jan-8
7
Jan-8
8
Jan-8
9
Jan-9
0
Jan-9
1
Jan-9
2
Jan-9
3
Jan-9
4
Jan-9
5
Jan-9
6
Jan-9
7
Jan-9
8
Jan-9
9
Jan-0
0
ND
VI
de
via
tio
ns
fro
m n
om
al
Time
Anomalies
Kajiado district, 2008
Isiolo district, 2008
Anomalies
Anomalies
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
SAMBURU
IS IOLO
LA IKIPIA
2 MAY 00
LA IKIPIA
IS IOLO
SAMBURU
2 MAY 98
LA IKIPIA
IS IOLO
SAMBURU
2 MAY 99
SPOT 4 NDVI images showing rainfall variability within
a period of three years 1998 to 2000
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Prediction of Crop
Production
Production = Area * Yield
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Maize consumption/Production 1985-2010
Average consumption rate being 98 Kg per
person per year (FEWSNET, 1997)
Source: Situma and Agastiva, 2010)
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,51
98
5
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Qu
an
tity
in
MT
Domestic production National consumption
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2004 2005 2006 2007
Bag
sM
illio
ns
Year
Consumption Production
Wheat
Average consumption rate of wheat being 27 Kg per person per year (FEWSNET, 1997)
Source: Situma et al (DRSRS Technical 2004-2007)
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Conclusion
The area and yield under maize and wheat
can reliable be predicted from vertical aerial
photography and radiometers as a rapid
method of crop assessment
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
Driers
Silos
Storage
P = Y*A
PRODUCTION & STORAGE
Workshop on Crop Yield Forecast: 12-14/10/2011: INRA, Rabat, Morocco
END
MERCI
THANK YOU
ASANTE SANA