Post on 26-Dec-2015
Chapter 1
Difference between the SEK/USD FX-swap implied dollar interest rate and the USD libor rate, 3 monthsPer cent
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
jan-
07
mar
-07
maj
-07
jul-07
sep-
07
nov-
07
jan-
08
mar
-08
maj
-08
jul-08
sep-
08
nov-
08
jan-
09
mar
-09
maj
-09
jul-09
sep-
09
nov-
09
jan-
10
mar
-10
maj
-10
jul-10
Finanskrisen startar
Lehman-kraschen
Greklands-krisen
Source: BloombergChart 1:1
Start of the
financial crisis
Lehman Greece
Swedish and international stress index
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 1:2
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
jan-07
apr-07
jul-07
okt-07
jan-08
apr-08
jul-08
okt-08
jan-09
apr-09
jul-09
okt-09
jan-10
apr-10
jul-10
International stress index Swedish stress index
Lehman Brothers
Bear Sterns
Greece
The difference between interest rates on ten year government bonds and the German government bond with the same maturityBasis points
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart: 1:3
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
jan-08 apr-08 jul-08 okt-08 jan-09 apr-09 jul-09 okt-09 jan-10 apr-10 jul-10
Ireland Sweden Portugal Spain Greece
Implied stock market volatilityPer cent, 10 day moving average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Sweden - OMX Europe - STOXX USA - S&P 500 Historical average, OMX
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:4
CDS-premiums on European governments and corporationsBasis points
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
okt-09 nov-09 dec-09 jan-10 feb-10 mar-10 apr-10 maj-10 jun-10
SovX (governments) iTraxx (companies)
Source: BloombergChart 1:4
Government CDS premiums Basis points
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
aug-08 okt-08 dec-08 feb-09 apr-09 jun-09 aug-09 okt-09 dec-09 feb-10 apr-10 jun-10
Ireland Sweden Portugal Spain Greece
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:6
Stock market developmentsIndex, 1 January 2008 =100
Sources: Reuters EcoWin Chart 1:7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10
Sweden - OMXS30 USA - S&P 500 Europe - STOXX Emerging markets - MSCI EM
Risk premiums on the interbank market, 3 monthsBasis points
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10
USA Euro area UK Sweden
Soure: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:8
Central banks balance sheetsPer cent of GDP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10
ECB Bank of England Federal Reserve The Riksbank
Sources: Respective central bankChart 1:9
Federal Reserve balance sheetUSD billions
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
aug-07 dec-07 apr-08 aug-08 dec-08 apr-09 aug-09 dec-09 apr-10 aug-10
Total Assets Securities Held Outright All Liquidity Facilities
Source: Federal ReserveChart 1:10
The Riksbank loans and the guaranteeprogramme’s outstanding volumesSEK billion
Sources: The Riksbank and Swedish National Debt OfficeChart 1:11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
okt-
08
mar
-09
aug-
09
jan-
10
jun-
10
nov-
10
apr-
11
sep-
11
feb-
12
jul-12
dec-
12
maj
-13
okt-
13
mar
-14
aug-
14
jan-
15
jun-
15
Issuance in SEK guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office
Issuance in foreign currency guaranteed by the Swedish National Debt Office
The Riksbank's SEK lending
The Riksbank's USD lending (in SEK)
Budget balance in selected EU countriesPercentage of GDP
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain Sweden
Source: Reuters EcowinChart B1
CDS premiums (5 years) for selected EU countriesBasis points
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
aug-08 dec-08 apr-09 aug-09 dec-09 apr-10 aug-10
Greece Ireland Italy Portugal Spain
Source: Reuters EcowinChart B2
Difference between yields on mortgage bonds and govermnent bond yields with five year maturityBasis points
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 1:12
The difference between the interbank rate and the expected policy rate of different maturitesBasis points
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
jan-07 jul-07 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10
1 month 3 month 6 month 9 month
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:13
Indicative breakdown of the Swedish riskpremium, 3 monthsBasis points
Source: The RiksbankChart 1:14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
dec-06 jun-07 dec-07 jun-08 dec-08 jun-09 dec-09 jun-10
Credit risk premium Liquidity risk premium
EUR/SEK cross currency basis spread, 5 yearsBasis points
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11
Source: BloombergChart 1:15
Credit spreads for US corporate bondsBasis points
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart: 1:16
0
200
400
600
800
1000
jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11-300
200
700
1200
1700
2200
Aaa (left scale) Bbb (left scale) High yield (right scale)
Credit spreads for European corporate bondsBasis points
0
100
200
300
400
500
jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Aaa (left scale) Bbb (left scale) High yieald (right scale)
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 1:17
Chapter 2
The Swedish Banks lending per borrower categorySeptember 2009, per cent of total lending
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 2:1
Households ; 40%
Companies excluding property companies;
18%
Property companies; 43%
The Swedish Banks lending per geographical area September 2009, per cent of total lending
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 2:2
Sweden; 50%
Other Nordic countries; 35%
Baltic countries; 5%
Other countries; 9%
Household borrowing from monetary financial institutionsAnnual percentage change
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
dec-95 dec-98 dec-01 dec-04 dec-07 dec-10
Three month, y-o-y Annual percentage change
Source: The RiksbankChart 2:3
Mortgage equity witdrawals, percentage of disposable incomePer cent
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sweden United Kingdom Australia
Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:4
House pricesPurchase Price Coefficient
0,9
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11
K/T ratio Seasonal adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:5
Tenant-owned apartment prices, three-month moving averageSEK per square metre
Source: www.maklarstatistik.seChart 2:6
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sweden Stockholm regionGöteborg region Malmö regionSweden, exculding metropolitan areas
Time to sale in SwedenNumber of days, median
Sources: Hemnet and www.maklarstatistik.seChart 2:7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10
Single-family dwellings Tenant-owned apartments
Number of housing starts
Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:8
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Household debt and post-tax interest expenditurePercentage of disposable income
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:9
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Debt ratio (left scale) Interest ratio (right scale)
Households' debt ratio in a number of municipalities and in SwedenPer cent
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Vaxh
olm
Velling
e
Dande
ryd
Simris
hamn
Kung
sbacka
Öste
råke
r
Valle
ntun
a
Värm
dö
Strömsta
dEk
erö
Rike
t
Perst
orp
Färgela
nda
Mullsj
ö
Mun
kfors
Berg
Filipsta
dMalå
Öve
rkali
x
Storum
an
Dorotea
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:10
Breakdown of households' new mortgages by fixed interest periodsPer cent
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Variable rate Fixed rate < 5 years Fixed rate > 5 years
Source: The RiksbankChart 2:11
Disposable income of households, final consumption expenditure and savingsSEK million
Source: Statistics SwedenChart 2:12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and fixed gross investmentAnnual percentage change
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and fixed gross investment
Forecast borrowing FSR 2010:2
Fixed gross investment
Forecast investments MPR February 2010
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:13
Corporate borrowing from credit institutions and their securities fundingSEK Billion
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Swedish credit institutions Debt securities in Sweden Foreign credit institutionsDebt securities abroad Trade credits
Source: The RiksbankChart 2:14
Interest coverage ratio in Swedish listed companiesRatio
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart: 2:15
Profitability and debt/total assets ratio in Swedish listed companiesPer cent
0
3
6
9
12
dec-
99
dec-
00
dec-
01
dec-
02
dec-
03
dec-
04
dec-
05
dec-
06
dec-
07
dec-
08
dec-
09
dec-
10
50
55
60
65
70
75
Profitability (left hand side) Debt/total assets ratio (right hand side)
Sources: Bloomberg and the RiksbankChart 2:16
Breakdown of corporate borrowing by period of fixed interestPer cent
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Less than 1 year Between 1 and 5 years More than 5 years
Sources: RiksbankenChart 2:17
Expected default frequency (EDF), outcome och forceastPer cent
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
EDF Forecast FSR 2010:1 Forecast FSR 2009:2
Sources: Moody´s KMV och RiksbankenChart 2:18
Transaction volumes in the Swedish commercial property marketSEK billion
Sources: Savills and the RiksbankChart 2:19
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Swedish investors Foreign investorsSwedish investors Q 2-4 2010 Foreign investors Q 2-4 2010
Real prices of office premises in city centresIndex, 1981 = 100
0
100
200
300
400
500
81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
Stockholm Göteborg Malmö
Sources: Newsec and the RiksbankChart 2:20
Average yield levels for modern office premises in city centresPer cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
dec-86 dec-89 dec-92 dec-95 dec-98 dec-01 dec-04 dec-07 dec-10
Stockholm Göteborg Malmö Five-year government bond yield
Sources: Newsec and Reuters EcoWinChart 2:21
Component factors for annual change in prices for offices in central StockholmPer cent
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Implicit risk premium Rents Ten-year Government bond yield
Short-term rent expectations Annual change in prices
Sources: Newsec, Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:22
Vacancy rate for office premises in city centresPer cent
0
5
10
15
20
25
dec-88 dec-90 dec-92 dec-94 dec-96 dec-98 dec-00 dec-02 dec-04 dec-06 dec-08 dec-10
Stockholm Göteborg Malmö
Source: NewsecChart 2:23
The property companies’ credit structureSEK million
Sources: Reports of the 17 property comp. listed on the NASDAQ OMX Stockholm A-list, q4, 2009 and the Riksbank.Chart 2:24
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
0-1 year 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years > 5 years
jun-09 dec-09
GDP in the Nordic countries and GermanyQuarterly changes in per cent
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
mar jun sep dec mar jun sep dec mar jun sep dec
2007 2008 2009
Denmark Norway Finland Germany
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the RiksbankChart 2:25
Households’ borrowingsAnnual percentage change
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sweden Denmark Norway Finland Germany
Sources: ECB and national statistics officesChart 2:26
Real house prices in the Nordic countries and GermanyIndex, March 2004 = 100
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
mar-04 mar-05 mar-06 mar-07 mar-08 mar-09 mar-10
Sweden Denmark Norway Finland Germany
Sources: the BIS Database, Reuters EcoWin, Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankChart 2:27
Companies’ borrowingsAnnual percentage change
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Sweden Denmark Norway Finland Germany
Sources: The ECB and national statistics agenciesChart 2:28
Corporate defaultsTwelve-month moving average, index, average year 2007 = 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Sweden Denmark Norway Finland Germany
Sources: National statistics agencies and the RiksbankChart 2:29
Expected default frequency for companies in the Nordic countries and GermanyPer cent
0
1
2
3
jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10
Sweden (355) Denmark (119) Norway (177)Finland (116) Germany (656)
Sources: Moody’s KMV Credit Edge and the RiksbankChart 2:30
Expected default frequency for property companies in the Nordic countries and GermanyPer cent
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
maj
-08
jul-08
sep-
08
nov-
08
jan-
09
mar
-09
maj
-09
jul-09
sep-
09
nov-
09
jan-
10
mar
-10
Sweden (19) Denmark (10) Norway (7) Finland (6) Germany (64)
Sources: Moody’s KMV Credit Edge and the RiksbankChart 2:31
GDPAnnual percentage change
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:32
Nominal wagesAnnual percentage change
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:33
UnemploymentPer cent
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: EurostatChart 2:34
Terms of tradeIndex: March 2000 = 100
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:35
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
mar
-00
nov-
00
jul-01
mar
-02
nov-
02
jul-03
mar
-04
nov-
04
jul-05
mar
-06
nov-
06
jul-07
mar
-08
nov-
08
jul-09
mar
-10
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Current accountPercentage of GDP
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09 dec-10
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart: 2:36
Harmonised index for consumer pricesAnnual percentage change
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:37
Real exchange ratesIndex, 2000 = 100
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
dec-00 dec-01 dec-02 dec-03 dec-04 dec-05 dec-06 dec-07 dec-08 dec-09 dec-10
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: BISChart:2:38
Liabilities from banks operating in the Baltic countries to foreign financial institutionsNational currencies; Index, December 2008 = 100
Sources: National central banksChart: 2:39
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
mar
-07
jun-
07
sep-
07
dec-
07
mar
-08
jun-
08
sep-
08
dec-
08
mar
-09
jun-
09
sep-
09
dec-
09
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Household borrowingAnnual percentage change
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:40
Corporate borrowingAnnual percentage change
-20
0
20
40
60
jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Source: Reuters EcoWinChart 2:41
Households´and companies´debts in relation to GDPPer cent
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Sweden
Sources: National central banks and Reuters EcowinChart 2:42
Late paymentsPer cent of outstanding loans
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
dec-
00
dec-
01
dec-
02
dec-
03
dec-
04
dec-
05
dec-
06
dec-
07
dec-
08
dec-
09
dec-
10
Estonia (more than 60 days) Latvia (more than 90 days)Lithuania (more than 60 days)
Sources: Eesti Pank, Financial and Capital Market Commission och Lietuvos BankasChart 2:43
HousepricesIndex, January 2006 = 100
Sources: Latio, Ober Haus, Arco Real Estate Land Board and Lietuvos BankasChart 2:44
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Chapter 3
The major Swedish banks' assets and liabilities per currency, December 2009SEK billion
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:1
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
SEK EUR USD GDP Sweden 2009
Assets
Assets
Assets
Liabilites
Liabilites
Liabilites
The total assets of the major Swedish banks in Sweden and abroad, March 2010SEK billion
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank Summa
Sweden Abroad
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:2
Total
The banks' earningsSEK billion, rolling four quarters
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
mars 06 mars 07 mars 08 mars 09 mars 10
Net interest income Net commission income
Net result of financial items Other income
Profit before loan losses and loan losses (net) in the major Swedish banksTotalled over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 31 March 2010
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:4
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
dec-90 dec-92 dec-94 dec-96 dec-98 dec-00 dec-02 dec-04 dec-06 dec-08 dec-10
Profit before loan losses Loan losses, net
Annual lending growth at the major Swedish banksPer cent
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:5
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
05:4 06:2 06:4 07:2 07:4 08:2 08:4 09:2 09:4 10:2
Net interest income in relation to interest-bearing assets, the net interest income marginPer cent
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
97:4 98:4 99:4 00:4 01:4 02:4 03:4 04:4 05:4 06:4 07:4 08:4 09:4 10:4
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:6
The major Swedish banks' securities-related net commission income, Stockholm Stock Exchange turnover and the stock market indexIndex, Q 1 2003 = 100
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
03:1 04:1 05:1 06:1 07:1 08:1 09:1 10:1
Asset management-related income OMX index Turnover OMX Brokerage income
Source: Bank reports, NASDAQ OMX and the RiksbankChart 3:7
Allocation of total assetsPer cent, December 2009
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank
Loans to public Loans to credit institutions Debt securities Derivatives Other assets
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:8
Swedish major banks' lending in the Baltic countries Left axis EUR billion, right axis per cent
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
07:1 07:2 07:3 07:4 08:1 08:2 08:3 08:4 09:1 09:2 09:3 09:4 10:1
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Lending to the public (left axis) Annual percentage change (right axis)
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:9
Market shares of lending in the Baltic countriesPer cent, March 2010
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Estonia Latvia LithuaniaSwedbank SEB Nordea ÖvrigaOther
s
Geographical distribution of loan losses, in the period second quarter 2009 to first quarter 2010Per cent
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:11
19%
49%
22%
10%
Sweden Other Nordic countries excl Sweden The Baltic countries Other countries
Loan losses per quarterPercentage of lending at the start of the respective quarters
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
08:1 08:2 08:3 08:4 09:1 09:2 09:3 09:4 10:1
Group provisions Individual provisions Write-offsReversals Recoveries Loan-loss level
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:12
Capital ratios of Swedish and international banksPer cent
Source: Standard & Poor’sChart 3:13
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Nordea
HSBC
Holding
s
DnB NO
R Gr
oup
Dexia SEB
Swed
bank
Hand
elsba
nken
KBC Ba
nk
Banc
o Sa
ntan
der
Barcl
ays B
ank
Cred
it Su
isse
Cred
it Ag
ricole
Socie
te G
enerale
LBBW
UniCredit
Intesa Sa
npao
loDa
nske
Ban
k
Deutsche
Ban
kBN
P Pa
ribas
Allie
d Irish
Ban
ksBa
yeris
che L
B
UBS
Citig
roup
Lending in relation to depositsPer cent
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Hande
lsban
ken
Swed
bank
Norde
a
UniCr
edit
SEB
Banc
o Sa
ntan
der
Commerzb
ank A
G
Barcl
ays B
ank
BNP Pa
ribas
RBS H
oldin
gs UBS
Cred
it Su
isse
HSBC Hold
ings
Deutsc
he Ban
k
Sources: Bankscope and the RiksbankChart 3:14
The major Swedish banks' deposits and lendingSEK billion
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
mar-01 mar-02 mar-03 mar-04 mar-05 mar-06 mar-07 mar-08 mar-09 mar-10
Lending Deposits and borrowing Deposit deficit
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:15
The major Swedish banks' sources of funding, March 2010Per cent
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:16
3 35
12
9
22
46
Credit from the Riksbank
Government-guaranteedborrowing via the SwedishNational Debt OfficeInterbank, net
Covered bonds in SEK
Covered bonds in foreigncurrency
Other debt securitiesissued
Deposits
Maturity of the securities of the major Swedish banks, March 2010SEK billion
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:17
430
590 590
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
<1 month 1-3 months 3-12 months
The market funding of the major Swedish banks per currency, December 2009Per cent
Sources: Bank reports and the RiksbankChart 3:18
SEK35%
EUR28%
USD21%
DKK10%
Other currencies6%
Chapter 4
Profit before loan losses and loan losses (net) in the major Swedish banksTotalled over four quarters, SEK billion, fixed prices, 31 March 2010
Sources: Bank reports, SME Direkt and the RiksbankChart 4:1
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
dec-90 dec-92 dec-94 dec-96 dec-98 dec-00 dec-02 dec-04 dec-06 dec-08 dec-10 dec-12
Profit before loan losses Loan losses, net
Main scenario loan losses, net, FSR 2009:1 Main scenario loan losses, net, FSR 2009:2
Distribution of loan losses in main scenario per bank and yearSEK billion
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank
2010 2011 2012
Source: The RiksbankChart 4:2
Distribution of loan losses per region in the period 2010–2012 in the Riksbank’s main scenarioSEK billion and per cent
Source: The RiksbankChart 4:3
58%
1017%
814%
58%
1931%
1322%
Sweden Nordic countries excl Sweden Estonia Latvia Lithuania Other countries
The major Swedish bank with the lowest Tier 1 capital ratio after another Swedish major bank has defaulted on its paymentsPer cent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: The RiksbankChart 4:4
Expected Default Frequency (EDF) for the Swedish corporate sector in the stress test and main scenarioPer cent
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
EDF, stress scenario EDF, main scenario
Sources: Moody's KMV and the RiksbankChart 4:5
The major Swedish banks' Tier 1 and core Tier 1 capital ratios, today and in the stress testPer cent
Source: The RiksbankChart 4:6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Handelsbanken Nordea SEB Swedbank
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q110*
1110
Handelsbanken SwedbankSEBNordea
Q1 10*
1110Q1 10*
1110Q1 10*
111012 121212