Kristin Dziczek

Director, Industry, Labor & Economics Group

Center for Automotive Research

New Materials/New Skills for the Trades

New Materials/New Skills for the Trades

Study commissioned by Alcoa Foundation—Now the Arconic Foundation

Premise: Implementing lightweighting solutions will change skill needs for current and future skilled trades workers

Focus: Impact of technology and process innovations in forming and joining metals and composites over the next 10 years

Occupations: Those involved in designing, analyzing, and building automotive tools, dies, molds, jigs & fixtures and that require intensive training/education programs (apprenticeships of 2+ years)

Research participants:

Arconic Inc. American Tooling Center, Inc. AP&T Atlas Tool Inc. Comau S.p.A. E&E Manufacturing Company Inc.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles Ford Motor Company General Motors Ivy Tech Community College Kaiser Aluminum

Macomb Community College Nemak Shiloh Industries, Inc. International UAW United States Department of Labor

Stricter fuel economy and emissions standards are driving use of advanced materials.

• U.S. EPA, NHTSA, and CARB are in midst of Mid-Term Evaluation

• Even if there are changes as a result of MTE:

• California + 13 States may not follow

• Rest of the world will not slow regulatory pace

• There are workforce and training implications of the technology changes and the pace of regulatory reform:

• New Materials

• New Forming Technologies

• New Joining Technologies

“Strength is never just weight—either in men or things. Whenever anyone suggests to me that I might increase weight or add a part, I look into decreasing weight and eliminating a part!” Henry Ford My Life and Work 1923

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Talent Implications of Technology and Tooling Industry Changes

There are three main talent challenges facing automotive tool and die producers—both at the large automakers and

suppliers, and at small shops:

New materials & new processes

1

An aging workforce, and… Implications of trade and purchasing

decisions on apprenticeships.

2 3

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Source: CAR Research

Note: Between 2010 to 2020 the mix of material represents the mix throughout the industry as some vehicles in the fleet still use predominantly mild or lower grade steels while few higher end vehicles use ultra high strength steels with aluminum. Automotive engineers want the right material at the right place but are currently constrained with issues such as mixed-material joining, supply chain risk, infrastructure etc. In the future, no single material wins the race to lightweighting. Future vehicles will have highly optimized mixed-material body structure; therefore, From 2025 to 2040 the material percentages represents material mix in a single vehicle.

Material Percentage Use by Year 2010 to 2040

Emerging Manufacturing Processes and Enablers 2015 to 2035

Source: CAR Research

The automotive industry needs more tooling hours, more tool and die workers, and greater productivity to meet planned product cadence.

3,055,000

3,780,000

5,550,000

CY2017 CY2018 CY2019

Estimated Tooling Workload Hours Based on FCA, Ford & GM Planned Major/Minor Product Changes

Source: CAR Research

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Tool and Die Employment in Motor Vehicle and Parts Manufacturing, 2011-2015

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seventy-seven percent of the current U.S. tool and die workforce is over age 45; there is tremendous replacement hiring.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Tool & Die Workers--Age Distribution for All Industries, 2015

Michigan, South Carolina, New York, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama have the most automotive tool and die job postings.

Source: Burning Glass, 2017

Automotive Tool and Die Labor Demand, 2016

Top Three Regions for Total Tool & Die Demand 1. Grand Rapids-Wyoming,

Michigan (MSA) 2. Detroit-Warren-Dearborn,

Michigan (MSA) 3. Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia,

North Carolina-South Carolina (MSA)

Tool & die workers are in high demand, and repair is the number one skill requirement. Top 10 Specialized Skills in Demand for Motor Vehicle and Parts Industry Tool and Die Workers, 2016 (number of job postings that list the skill)

Source: Burning Glass, 2017

Tool & die workers need to be expert troubleshooters and communicators. Top 10 Baseline Skills in Demand for Motor Vehicle and Parts Industry Tool and Die Workers, 2016 (number of job postings that list the skill)

Source: Burning Glass, 2017

Tool & die workers need to have:

Source: Burning Glass, 2017

• Lifelong learning commitment • Machining knowledge • Ability to read engineering drawings • Problem solving abilities • An understanding of metallurgy and the chemical properties of the materials

their tools will form • Knowledge of physics, processing, and types of joins affect formed part • How to prioritize critical adjustments to achieve dimensional tolerance of overall

part or assembly

Average annual wages in motor vehicle assembly manufacturing tool and die have not kept pace with inflation.

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Inflation-adjusted Average Annual Wages for Tool and Die Workers in Motor Vehicle Manufacturing, 2009 & 2016

Average annual wages in motor vehicle parts manufacturing tool and die have also not kept pace with inflation. Inflation-adjusted Average Annual Wages for Tool and Die Workers in Motor Vehicle Manufacturing, 2009 & 2016

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average annual wages in independent tool and die manufacturing (all industries) have gone up only for those at the 75th percentile. Inflation-adjusted Average Annual Wages for Tool and Die Workers in Tool, Die, Mold, Jig, and Fixture Manufacturing, 2009 & 2016

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

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The U.S. imported $553B in metal cutting tools and dies in 2016.

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Source: U.S. International Trade Commission

How will new apprentices learn the tooling build phase (so they can support and repair tools in production) if they’ve never built a tool?

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Recommendations:

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• Address Training and Apprenticeships as a Common Good

• Build Stronger Industry Partnerships with Community and Technical Colleges • Strategic Direction

• Instructors

• Equipment

• Change Industry Practices • Purchasing

• Productivity

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Kristin Dziczek kdz@cargroup.org