Post on 30-Oct-2019
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Potentials, Challenges and Uncertainties
11/28/13 Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH slide 1
01. Company Facts and partners 02. Potential: Production methods for renewable CO2-based fuels 03. Challenge: Road-to-Market 04. Uncertainty: Politics, Markets and Willingness-to-Pay 05. Control Power: Enhanced Business Model
Content
11/28/13 Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
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PtL Demo Plant Fuel1 Start-up in 2014
11/28/13 Power-to-Liquids as a new Energy Option / Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Power-to-Liquids as a new Energy Option
11/28/13
Who is sunfire? Company facts & partners
slide 4 Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Management and company facts
11/28/13
Senior Management
Carl Berninghausen (CEO), EBS, Karibu, Thermea, e.a. Christian v. Olshausen (CTO), TU Dresden, P&G, Daimler Fuel Cells
Dr. Oliver Posdziech TU Dresden, EBZ
Björn Erik Mai TU Berlin, Webasto, staxera
Mario Heinrich HTW Dresden, Audi, staxera
Fuel Systems
Dietmar Rüger TU Dresden, Choren Industries
Nils Aldag EBS, Desertec Foundation
Business Administration Business Development Stacks
Employees 53 (47 engineers and technicians, 6 business graduates)
Infrastructure Test environment for stacks, systems and PtL & PtG
History sunfire founded in 2010 (staxera 2005), staxera merged into sunfire in 2012, Bilfinger entry in 2012
The sunfire team has developed one of the most robust and cost competitive SOFC-stacks.
slide 5 Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Sales & marketing
Cooperation Bilfinger/sunfire – a perfect fit for PtL & PtG
11/28/13 slide 6
Core engineering
Core compo-nents
• Commissioning-support • Operation- and optimizing-support • Core components for maintenance and
repair
General contractor
Construc-tion
• Maintenance • Technical engineering • Modifications, upgrades,
updates
Decom-missioning
Invest Operation Desinvest
Corporate sales & marketing but individual focus on core competencies
sunfire: Engineering & core components
Bilfinger: General contractor & construction Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Power-to-Liquids as a new Energy Option
11/28/13
An enormous Potential: PtL & PtG based on High Temperature Steam Electrolysis
slide 7 Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Patented efficiency advantage
Hydrogen
Water
Syngas
Hydrocarbons
Steam and CO2
CO2 Waste heat
Electr. Power (100%)
LT Electrolysis (PEM, Alkaline)
Steam
High Temperature Steam Electrolysis increases the process efficiency significantly. PtL: 50% à 70%, PtG: 55% à 80% (approximate values, based on LHV)
slide 8 11/28/13 Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Patented efficiency advantage
Hydrogen
Water
Syngas
Hydrocarbons
Steam and CO2
CO2
Heat recovery (16%)
Electr. Power (84%)
HT-Elektrolysis (SOEC)
Steam
High Temperature Steam Electrolysis increases the process efficiency significantly. PtL: 50% à 70%, PtG: 55% à 80% (approximate values, based on LHV)
slide 9 11/28/13 Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Production method Power-to-Liquids
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sunfire‘s Power-to-Liquids process consists of three components: SOEC (Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cell), RWGS-conversion and fuel synthesis
RWGS-Conversion
CO2+H2à CO+H2O
Fuel Synthesis
2H2 + CO à -CH2- + H2O
Hydrocarbon Fuels High present economical potential
SOEC
H2O-Steam H2O
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Production method Power-to-Gas
11/28/13 slide 11
Methanation is a relatively simple process. The increased efficiency due to the SOEC is still applicable. However, the economical potential of SNG is lower than for synthetic liquid fuels due to the cheap and still long time available natural gas.
SOEC Sabatier-Process
CO2 + 4 H2
à CH4+ 2 H2O
SNG
H2O-Steam
Simple Nickel-catalyst
No complex product separation
H2O
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
11/28/13
A challenging process: sunfire’s Road-to-Market
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Power-to-Liquids as a new Energy Option
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Road-to-Market or “How to overcome the Valley of Death”
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Spec. costs of SOCs
Production volume
R&D (SOFC & SOEC)
Small demo projects (e.g. Callux)
PtL- & PtG- demonstration CHP & PtG CHP, PtG & PtL
Offgrid SOCs (e.g. telecom)
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Road-to-Market Strategy and timeline
11/28/13
Power-to-Liquids Power-to-Gas Gas-to-Power Markets microCHP Off-grid smallCHP Chemicals Storage Fuels
1-2.5 kW >2.5 kW >25 kW >10 MW >2 MW >50 MW
2013 2014 2015 2016 …
Field test Pre-commercial & market entry
R&D project (Storage / Chemicals / Fuels)
Demonstration & commercialization
Power-to-Gas and Liquids (SOEC)
SOFC
slide 14 Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
PtL Demo Plant Fuel1 Storage / Chemicals / Fuels
11/28/13
R&D project
• Construction of a Power-to-Liquids pilot plant targeting the verification of the chemical process & the development of a SOEC prototype
• Government-funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research • Project costs: € 12m (sf: € 8m)
• Project duration: May 2012 - June 2015 (start of operation in 2014)
Project consortium
Power-to-Liquids demo plant Fuel1 in Dresden
slide 15 Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
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Groundbreaking for demo plant at 22nd of July 2013 & construction progress after three months.
PtL Demo Plant Fuel1 Storage / Chemicals / Fuels
11/28/13 Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Power-to-Liquids as a new Energy Option
11/28/13
Still uncertain: Markets & Willingness-to-Pay
slide 17 Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Aviation
Markets for PtG and PtL
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PtG PtL
Products
Markets
SNG Methanol
Gasoline/ Diesel Kerosene
Waxes
Production method
Energy storage
Traffic
Premium fuels
Quota fuels Chemical
industry
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Power-to-Liquids Willingness-to-Pay vs. cost
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0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20
SNG -‐ Quota Fuel
Gasoline/ Diesel -‐ Quota Fuels
Wax -‐ Chemical Industry
Kerosine -‐ AviaGon
€ / kWh
Willingness-‐to-‐Pay
ProducGon Cost
Willingness-to-Pay currently uncertain
Fourfold Quota
Fourfold Quota F. P.
The willingness to pay for sunfire-fuels is clearly higher than 0.10 €/kWh(LHV). The reason is the obligatory addition of renewable fuels to fossil ones with respect to 2009/28/EG – as well as the intended fourfold crediting of PtX-fuels to this quota (see source at the bottom).
Source of proposed amending: http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/fuel/docs/com_2012_595_en.pdf
Mandatory renewable fuel addition
Mandatory renewable fuel addition
Fossil Portion Fourfold Quota
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Power-to-Liquids as a new Energy Option
11/28/13
Control Energy Market: Enhanced Business Model for PtL and PtG
slide 20 Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Control Energy
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20
40
60
80
GW Consumption
Generation
Control Energy is used to compensate temporary differences between consumption and generation of electricity.
Positive Control Energy
Negative Control Energy
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
11/28/13 slide 22
Call for Bids Minimum Offer Activation Time
Primary Control Energy weekly 1 MW < 30 seconds automated
Secondary Control Energy weekly 5 MW < 5 minutes automated
Minute Reserve daily 5 MW < 15 minutes partly automated
Types of control Energy
Primary Control Energy
Secondary Control Energy
Minute Reserve
30 s 5 min 15 min
Order of Activation
Control Energy
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Source of information www.regelleistung.net
Control Energy
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Demand-Rate Auction for Secondary Control Energy
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
Source of Data: www.regelleistung.net
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
€ / MWh_el
Offert Minute Reserve (Summation) in MW
Highest „Called“ Price
25 MW for 130 €/MWh
0 500 1000 1500 2000
2500
400
300
200
100
0
Needed Pool of available minute reserve
Summation of offered Secondary Control Energy MWh_el
02.07.2013 Seite 24
100%
Plant Capacity
Up to 30%
Plant Capacity
70 - 100%
Plant Capacity
An enhanced Business Model for the “Energiewende”: PtL and PtG as economical Control Reserve
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
PtL, PtG
Negative Control Energy
Synthetic Liquid Fuels
Synthetic Natural Gas
Electricity Stock Market
Production Costs Earnings
An enhanced Business Model for the “Energiewende”: PtL and PtG as economical Control Reserve
11/28/13 slide 25
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
U(liza(on of PtL plant in posi(ve control mode [%]
Annu
al Profit [€
/MW_el]
U(liza(on of PtL plant in CH2 produc(on mode [%]
CH2 -‐ Gewinn
Regel. -‐ Gewinn
CH2 Profit
Control Profit
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH
An enhanced Business Model for the “Energiewende”: PtL and PtG as economical Control Reserve
The generally positive effect of PtL and PtG for 1. A robust electricity grid and hence supply 2. 100% renewable primary energy supply in all other CH-based energy sectors also enables the plant to increase its total economical profit.
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0 20 40 60 80 100
Annu
al Profit [€
/MW_el]
U(liza(on of PtL plant in CH2 produc(on mode [%]
Gesamt -‐ Gewinn
∑
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
U(liza(on of PtL plant in posi(ve control mode [%]
Annu
al Profit [€
/MW_el]
U(liza(on of PtL plant in CH2 produc(on mode [%]
CH2 -‐ Gewinn
Regel. -‐ Gewinn
Optimum at approx. 70 %
CH2 Profit
Control Profit
Total Profit
Business Model for Power to Gas/Liquids - Wolfgang Verdegaal - sunfire GmbH