BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITY Center for Business and Economic Research BALL...

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BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

East Central Indiana’s Economy

June 8, 2011

Michael Hicks

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

How bad has it really been?

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

2010 Forecast2010 Forecast2010 : Q1 2010 : Q2 2010 : Q3 2010 : Q4

Employment 0.03% 0.24% 0.39% 0.60%

Labor Force -0.14% -0.10% -0.07% 0.01%

Personal Income 1.22% 1.38% 1.47% 0.81%

Manufacturing Income 1.24% 1.96% 2.41% 1.76%

Utilities Income 0.39% 0.21% 0.10% 0.48%

Construction Income 1.43% 2.05% 2.42% 1.66%

Wholesale Income 1.14% 1.46% 1.65% 1.27%

Retail Income 0.71% 0.90% 1.02% 0.61%

Finance & Insurance Income

1.04% 1.25% 1.36% 0.51%

Health Care Income 0.90% 0.91% 0.68% 0.59%

Information Income 1.20% 1.52% 1.72% 1.14%

Transportation Income 1.42% 1.89% 2.17% 1.85%

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

2010 : Q1 2010 : Q2 2010 : Q3 2010 : Q4 Annual

Employment 0.54% 0.34% 0.20% 0.15% 1.23%

Labor Force 0.01% -0.10% -0.19% -0.21% -0.49%

Personal Income 0.75% 1.14% 1.45% 1.39% 4.81%

Manufacturing Income 1.55% 1.73% 1.91% 1.71% 7.07%

Utilities Income 0.53% 0.33% 0.16% 0.20% 1.22%

Construction Income 1.48% 1.77% 2.02% 1.84% 7.29%

Wholesale Income 1.17% 1.31% 1.43% 1.34% 5.34%

Retail Income 0.55% 0.77% 0.95% 0.89% 3.19%Finance & Insurance Income 0.41% 0.92% 1.33% 1.24% 3.96%

Health Care Income 0.79% 0.84% 0.71% 0.65% 3.02%

Information Income 1.00% 1.27% 1.50% 1.40% 5.27%

Transportation Income 1.70% 1.72% 1.77% 1.63% 6.99%

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

(500)

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500

1,000

1,500

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$ M

illions

US Federal Deficit, 1792-2010

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

$ M

illions

US Federal Deficit, 1913-2010 Adjusted for Inflation

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

Why my wife won’t let me buy a Hummer

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY

What I see in the Fall of 2011 and beyond

•The recession is over, this is the recovery

•Manufacturing is returning to trend

•US Consumers will spend again, but at a lower share of income

•States continue to see weak fiscal performance

•High productivity means significant lag in job growth and •Structural unemployment will remain high for several years

•Business very tentative on investment

•Inflation looms on this economy

BUREAU OF BUSINESS RESEARCH BALL STATE UNIVERSITYCenter for Business and Economic Research BALL STATE UNIVERSITY