Post on 04-Apr-2018
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BuncombeCountyHealthandHumanServicesBoard
February22,2013
BuncombeCounty
EconomicOverview
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199019931980 19811983 20012005
2007?(Jan2013)
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61
Months
PastRecessions&MonthsToReturnToPreRecessionEmployment
Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,NBER
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CurrentRecessionMonthstoPreRecessionEmployment
NorthCarolina(181,176jobs,5%)
Buncombe
(3,809jobs,4%)
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57
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TotalEmploymentAshevilleMetro
4
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
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TotalEmploymentAshevilleMetro
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
11,800
6.6%
5
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TotalEmploymentAshevilleMetro
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
175,000
180,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
+7,500
+4.5%
6
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TotalEmployment:AnnualChange
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Asheville
7
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TotalEmployment:AnnualChange
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Asheville
UnitedStates
8
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TotalEmployment:AnnualChange
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Asheville
UnitedStates
NorthCarolina
9
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BuncombeCountyTopJobGainersbyIndustry2007=0
RetailTrade(+589
jobs,
+4%)
Professional &Tech
Services(+285
jobs,
+6%)
HealthCare(+2,102
jobs,+10%)
Lodging&Food
Services(+533jobs,
+4%)
PublicAdministration
(+395jobs,+7%)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Recession
10
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BuncombeCountyTopJobLosersbyIndustry2007=0
Construction(2,596
jobs,37%)
Manufacturing
(1,437jobs,12%)
Administrative
Services(833jobs,
11%)
EducationalServices
(255jobs,3%)
(3,000)
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Recession
11
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BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByGender2007=0
Female
(6,698jobs,9%)
Male
(8,943jobs,13%)
(12,000)
(10,000)
(8,000)
(6,000)
(4,000)
(2,000)
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Recession
12
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BuncombeCountyEmploymentByGender2007
20%
78%
80%
22%
Construction
HealthCare
Female Male
13
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BuncombeCountyTotalEmploymentByGender
Female
Male
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
14
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BlackorAfrican
AmericanAlone
(1,906jobs,15%)
WhiteAlone
(12,664jobs,10%)
(14,000)
(12,000)
(10,000)
(8,000)
(6,000)
(4,000)
(2,000)
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Recession
BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByRace2007=0
15
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BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByRace2007=0
16
AmericanIndianor
AlaskaNative
(187jobs,19%)
AsianAlone
(471jobs,16%)
MorethanOneRace
(371jobs,18%)
NativeHawaiianor
OtherPacificIslander
Alone
(43
jobs,
14%)
(600)
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Recession
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BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByEthnicity2007=0
17
Hispanic
(1,145jobs,15%)
NotHispanic
(14,487jobs,11%)
(16,000)
(14,000)
(12,000)
(10,000)
(8,000)
(6,000)
(4,000)
(2,000)
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Recession
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BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByEducation2007=0
Bachelordegreeor
above
(1,249jobs,4.6%)
Highschooldegree
(3,128jobs,8.2%)
Lessthan
high
school
(928jobs,6.1%)
Somecollegeor
associatedegree
(2,622jobs,6.8%)
(4,000)
(3,500)
(3,000)
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Recession
18
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BuncombeCountyEmploymentChangeByAge2007=0
2534
(2,544jobs,8%)
3544
(3,524jobs,11%)
4554
(2,895jobs,10%)
5564
(+956jobs,+5%)
65+
(+79jobs,
+1%)
1424
(7,714jobs,30%)(8,000)
(7,000)
(6,000)
(5,000)
(4,000)
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Recession
19
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BuncombeCountyTotalEmploymentByAge
2534
35444554
5564
65+
1424
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
20
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BuncombeCountyPovertyRates
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
PovertyRate(%)
PersonsinPoverty
21
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PovertyRate(%)Comparison
NorthCarolina
UnitedStates
Buncombe
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
22
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BuncombeCountySourcesofPopulationChange
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Natural Domestic International
23
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AnnualPopulationGrowthRates
UnitedStates
NorthCarolina
Buncombe
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
24
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AverageWagePerJob
$37,229
$43,107
$48,301
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Buncombe NorthCarolina UnitedStates
25
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10YChangeinAverageWagePerJob(inflationadjusted)
UnitedStates
NorthCarolina
Buncombe
($500)
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
26
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PerCapitaIncome
$34,467$36,028
$41,560
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Buncombe NorthCarolina UnitedStates
27
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10YChangeinPerCapitaIncome(inflationadjusted)
UnitedStates
NorthCarolina
Buncombe
($1,500)
($1,000)
($500)
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
28
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BuncombeCountyChangesinComponentsofIncome
29
62% 60%55%
23% 23%
21%
15% 17%
23%
1991 2001 2011
PersonalGovernment
Transfers
InvestmentIncome
Earning&Wages
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10YChangeinBuncombeIncome(inflationadjusted)
Earnings&Wages
InvestmentIncome
Personal
Government
Transfers
($200,000)
($100,000)
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
$Thousands
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10YChangeinPersonalGovt.Transfers(inflationadjusted)
Retirementand
disabilityinsurance
benefits
Medicalbenefits
Income
maintenance
benefits
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
$Thou
sands
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BuncombeAgeProfile
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
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BuncombeAgeProfile
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
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20122022BuncombeAgeProfileNetChange
(400)
(200)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
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SummaryObservations
35
Wearegrowing
Therecessionended5+yearsagobut
westillhaveawaystogo
Industries
leading
growth: HealthCare
Retail
Lodging&
Food
Professional&TechnicalServices
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SummaryObservations
36
HardestHit
Construction
Manufacturing
Administrative
ServicesYoungWorkers
Men
Nonwhites
HighSchoolEducated
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SummaryObservations
37
Povertyis
at
ahistoric
high
Populationgrowthholds,althoughata
slowerpace
Wages&Incomestagnate
GovernmentTransferbenefitsexpand
One
half
future
growth
will
be
+65
year
olds
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Buncombe*ExistingHomeSales
*IncludesMadisonCounty
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
HomesSold AverageSalesPrice
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Buncombe*ExistingHomeAverageSalesPrice
Annual%ChangeByQuarter
*IncludesMadisonCounty
13%12%
28%
22%21%
15%
0%
16%
9% 8%7%
3%
10%
6%
12%
2%
4%
7%
10%
1%
2%
4%
11%
6%
11%
7%
0%
1%
6%6% 6%
4%
4%
9%
2%
2%
15%
10%
5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AverageSalesPrice
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Buncombe*ExistingHomesSold
Annual%ChangeByQuarter
*IncludesMadisonCounty
50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
HomesSold
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BuncombeResidentialBuildingPermits
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
0
50
100
150
200
250
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
SingleFamily MultiFamily Value
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ResidentialRealEstateSummaryObservations
42
Thenumberofexistinghomessoldhasbeenup(yearover
year)forthelastsixquarters
Averagepricesofexistinghomessoldisdowninthefinal
quarterof2012by2%,butwasupinthethreepreceding
quarters
2012residentialpermitsdominatedbysinglefamilyunits
2012singlefamilypermitsgreaterthanin2011or2010
Totalpermitactivitystillwaybelowpast(47%below2008
value,40%below2008units)
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Sources
43
USBureauofLaborStatistics:Slide2
NorthCarolinaEmploymentSecurityCommission:Slides39
USCensusBureau:Slides1024,41
USBureauofEconomicAnalysis:Slides2531
NorthCarolinaOfficeofStateBudgetandManagement:Slides3234
NorthCarolinaAssociationofRealtors:Slides3840
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ContactInformation:
TomTveidt
SYNEVAEconomics
tom@syneva.com
www.syneva.com
828.734.5021