The Disruptive FutureDr Norman LewisDirector of Technology ResearchOrange UK‘From idea to global product’4th IBBT Brokerage Event9 May Ghent

• More than any time in history,the Telecoms industry faces

a crossroads…

• One path leads to despairand utter hopelessness…

•The other to total extinction.

•Let us pray that we have the wisdom

to choose correctly…• Apologies to Woody Allen

Voice and time

Insane moments…

The definition of insanity is to dothe same thing over and overagain …

and expect different results !

Albert Einstein

Disruption ahead!

•A billion people in advanced

economies may have between

them two billion and six billions

spare hours

•a day....

•It would take the 340,000 workers

employed by the motion picture

and recording industries

in the United States...

•...assuming each worker worked

forty-hour weeks without taking

a single vacation...

•...between three and

eight and a half years...

•to equal the amountof free time

a billion people haveeach day!

•Beyond the sheer potential quantitative

capacity, however one wishes to discount it to

account for different levels of talent,

knowledge, and motivation,

a billion volunteers have qualities that make

them more likely to produce what others want

to read, see, listen to,

or experience...•Yochai Benkler The Wealth of Networks

The Pantomime Moment

…behind you!

The customer of thefuture

The Future of Innovation

Digital Children

Risk culture and childhood

Children and young people’sengagement and experience

with the new media isprofoundly shapedby their social life

The rise of bedroom culture

…and a decline of street culture

Digital Children

Digital technologyis used by childrento overcome theirexperienceof isolation throughcommunicatingwith their peers

A clash of cultures?

Parents regard new technology as an educational

tool while children regard it as a medium of

entertainment and connectivity;

Parents approach to the new media is underwritten

by the imperative of risk minimisation while children

use it in part to gain a measure of freedom from

adult supervision.

The evasion of the adult gaze

The changing character of childhood –particularly the shift from outdoors toindoors - means children want digitalapplications that are under theircontrol, help them to pass time,provide entertainment, connect withpeers and evade adult supervision

Self-expression as a state of being

Young people are facing not so mucha problem of communication but thatof self-expression

Identity and reputation

Creativity and sharing

The search foracknowledgmentis the key toonline activity

self-expression

as itself

a form of

communication

Communicationhas become modified

the communication of contenthas become less significant than the

network of communication

Collage cultureand digital expertise Young people are drawn to technologies that

are readily personalised and which can be used

individually;

Maintaining one’s social status depends on

the ability to personalise new technology;

Skills are acquired incidentally while popular culture

becomes a palette with which to paint the self.

Web2.0

Passive to active

Application-led to service-led

Client-server to peer-basedtopologies

One-size-fits-all to personalisation

Proprietary to open source

Six rules of Web 2.0…• Users Add Value:

• Look at eBay – the users are the application

• Network Effects by Default:• Create networks as a by product of users' self-interest

• The Perpetual Beta:• Applications are no longer software artefacts but ongoing services

• Software Above a Single Device:• Apps on single devices will be less valuable than those connected

• Data is the Next 'Intel Inside':• Hard to recreate data leads to competitive advantage

• A Platform beats an Application Every Time:• Re-use the data services of others

OPENECOSYSTEMS

Threats and Opportunities

Children are not naturallygood with technology

We still need R&D!

Cannibalism

R&D, predictability andexpected outcomes

Proliferation of Dubious Patents

• …the growth in the number of patents is nowexceeding the increase in R&D expenditure whichindicates that ‘cheap’ patents are being used as asubstitute for more R&D

• James Bessen & Robert Hunt

Era of short-term pragmatism andinstitutionalised risk-aversion

Enormous creative potential

Interdisciplinary problem solving

The future has alreadyhappened - its just

unevenly distributed

The future’s bright….?

Thank you

norman.lewis@orange-ftgroup.com