www

Rethinking globalisation in the light of Contraction and CONVERGEnce

Vala Ragnarsdottir

Dean of Engineering and Natural Sciences

University of Iceland

www.convergeproject.org

The CONVERGE team here today• From the University of Iceland – in addition to me

– Sigrún María Kristinsdóttir– Charlotte Jónsdóttir Biering

• From the University of Lund, Sweden– Harald Sverdrup– Deniz Koca

• From the Schumacher Institute, Bristol– Ian Roderick– Alice Marie Archer– Emmelie Brownlee– Julia

Converge: Progress towards equity within the Earth’s biophysical

boundaries

The aim of the CONVERGE project

• Develop the idea of CONVERGE with societal, economic and ecological perspectives in connection to globalisation

• Test CONVERGE as a framework for holistic indicators

• Evaluate whether national, EU and international policies and agreements are opposite or support convergence processes and test the CONVERGE framework with communities and stakeholders

Aims cont.

• Evaluate how different methods of community engagement can work towards the development of sustainable communities in the North and South, and test the CONVERGE framework with stakeholders

• Find convergence methodologies from case studies

• Use interdisciplinary methodologies to evaluate outcomes, and develop new understanding in a crossdisciplinary framework

Aims cont.

• Recommend how CONVERGE can fit into the inner and outer policies of the EU

• Distribute CONVERGE to different users through a variety of media

Focus on food

• Communities tested– Iceland (an island – 320,000 people)– Bristol city (400,000 people)– Villages in Tamil Nadu (SCAD)

– Communities where framework presented• Lund, Sweden• Gödöllö, Hungary

Stakeholder workshops

• 3 workshops with systems analysis inbetween

• One meeting where framework presented

• Systems dynamics model given to participants

Methodology to develop the CONVERGE framework:

systems thinking

• The Natural Step• The ISIS compass• Systems analysis

– Systems dynamics

• Stakeholder workshops

How do we use the Earh´s resources and an equitable manner?

Sverdrup et al.

Ecological footprint

The Earth is shrinking

19007.91

19505.15

19872.60

20052.02

20301.69

20501.44

YEARHectar of surface per person

Ecological footprint = the land we need to provide daily needs and take up the waste. Now we are using 1.5 Earths per year.

Earth boundaries – we have surpassed 3 of 9

Ocean acidification

Ozon in stratosphere

Rockström et al. 2009

Cycling of N

Cycling of P

Water useLand use change

Biodiversity loss

Atmosphericareosols

Pollution

Climate change

Growth 1750-2000

Polulation GDP Dams Wateruse

Urbanpopulation

Paperuse

Cartransport

Telephones

Tourists

McDonalds

7 billion people

Perpetual growth?

Sverdrup og Ragnarsdottir 2011

Peak energy

Coal 2015Oil 2005

Global energy 2020

ASPO

Hubberts ,,peak” curves

for 12 key metals

Sverdrup Ragnarsdottir Koca 2011

Gold 2000 Silver 2030 Copper 2040

Zinc 2030 Lead 2020 Indium 2050

Iron 2030 Molybdenum 2050

Chromium 2050

Nickel 2050 Platinum 2030

Phosphate 2000

Peak fish Peak phosphate…

Fishing Phosphate

2000Sverdrup og Ragnarsdottir 2011

From cradle to grave – to cradle to cradle

Biomimickry

Other important problems

• Financial systems that don´t understand natural limits

• Greed• Corruption

Human needs

Subsis-tence

IdlenessPartici-pation

Protection AffectionUnder-

standing

Creation Identity Freedom

Manfred Max-Neef et al

Cycles of nature

Slow geological cycles (volcano eruptions and weathering)

Slow geological cycles (sedimentation and mineralization)

Closed system with respect to matter1) Nothing disappears2) Everything disperses

Open system with respect to energy

« Photosynthesis pays the bill »

Sustainability is about the ability of human society

to continue indefinitely within

these natural cycles

How we influence cycles

Large flows of materials from the Earth’s crust

Introduce persistent compounds foreign to nature

Physically inhibit nature’s ability to run cycles

Barriers to people meeting

their basic needs worldwide

TNS system conditions: In a sustainable society

...the systematic increase in concentrations of substances from the Earth’s crust,

...the systematic increase in concentrations of substances produced by society,

...the systematic increase of physical degradation and destructions of natural systems,

...to conditions that systematically undermine people’s capacity to meet their needs.

We’ve eliminated our contribution to…

From vision to action plans

Baseline

Creative Solutions

Prioritisation

Future

Think out of the box

,,We cannot solve problems by using the same way of thinking as we had when we created them”

Albert Einstein

Sustainability is...

A set of conditions and trends

in a given system that can

continue indefinitely

AtKisson 2008

Sustainable development is...

A directed process of

continuous innovation and

systemic change

in the direction of sustainability

AtKisson 2008

• N =NatureEnvironment, resources, ecosystems, climate, cultivation

• A = EconomyProduction, consumption, employment, energy, fertiliser

• S = SocietyGovernment, culture, institutions, schools, common issues, education for sustainability, nature protection in constitution, voters

• V = Well beingIndividual health, families, education level, quality of life, happiness, healthy food

Nature

Economy

Society

Well being

Sustainablity compass– indicators

AtKisson 2008

Steps towards sustainability• Think long term• Understand systems• Know limits• Protect nature• Change commerce• Show equity• Support innovation

(AtKisson 2008)

Systems thinker

• Looks for the big picture• Looks for the cycle that links cause and effect• Sees how things change with time• Looks for new angles• Evaluates the effect of short term and long term

actions• Finds unexpected afleiðingar

AtKisson 2008

Soil + rock + oil = people

Ragnarsdottir og Sverdrup 2010

Closing the nutrient cycles

Ragnarsdottir og Sverdrup 2010

Organic farming – Vallanes NE Iceland

Agroforestry

How much food can we produce in cities?

Vision of Herbert Girardet

Kristín Vala Ragnarsdóttir

Cuba – city cultivation

• Cuba went through

“peak oil” 20 years ago

- Learned Permaculture– Up to 90% of vegetables

cultivated in cities and towns

– Car parks, gardens, roofs, pateos, balconies

– Peoples health has improved

– Communities have strengthened

Your brainstorming now

• An huge eruption has lasted for 3 months in Iceland.

• All flights in the northern hemisphere are off.• Oil is expensive and few ships arrive with food;

few trucks distribute food to supermarkets. • The city of Bristol and nearby counties have a

joint emergency meeting and decide that all food needs be produced in Bristol and its bioregion.

• The question is how?

Spaceship Bristol-bioregion

1. Imagine sustainable Bristol1. How does it look like?

2. Where are we now? (baseline) – remember that the baseline today is not the same as after a 3 month eruption in Iceland

3. Then find steps from the future to the present (connect step 1 to step 2)

Coffee break

Dig for victory

Remember how the gardens were changed from flower beds to

vegetable patches during the war!

Talk to your mothers/grandmothers!

Conventional fertilizer

• N:P:K in different proportions

• When phosphate mines empty and energy is limited – what fertiliser will we use?

A few suggestions

• Close all cycles

• Waste from one process used as resource for another

• Societal equity is prevalent

• Convergence for sustainability is the progress towards human equity within biological planetary boundaries.

• In a converging society, every global citizen has the right to a fair share of the Earth’s bio-capacity and the opportunity for secured human wellbeing.

• In a converging society, people have the opportunity to meet their basic human needs.

• In a converging society, nature is systematically cared for, maintained and restored.

• A converging society is aware of the fact that everything humans have and use comes from nature. In a converging society, nature’s resource inflow to society is recognized and the focus is on using resources in the least harmful way possible.

• A converging society deals with its outflow (waste), using the four R’s as a guideline – reduce, recycle, refuse and reuse. It is a circular society (as opposed to a throw-away society) that has learned from nature.

CONVERGE principles

Principles cont

• A converging society is aware of the fact that everything humans have and use comes from nature.

• In a converging society, nature’s resource inflow to society is recognized and the focus is on using resources in the least harmful way possible.

Principles cont.

• A converging society deals with its outflow (waste), using the four R’s as a guideline – reduce, recycle, refuse and reuse. It is a circular society (as opposed to a throw-away society) that has learned from nature.

Harald and Deniz take over