Post on 06-Aug-2015
DOES JAPAN NEED NUCLEAR TO REDUCE CARBON EMISSIONS?
Jessica Lovering Senior Energy Analyst
JAPAN’S EMISSIONS IN CONTEXTPe
r Cap
ita C
O2
Emis
sion
s (m
etri
c to
ns)
6
10
14
18
22
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
USAGermanyJapanFranceChina
France
Per C
apita
Ele
ctri
city
Pro
duce
d (k
Wh/
pers
on)
0
2250
4500
6750
9000
2000 2013
Fossil Low-Carbon
Germany
2000 2013
Japan
2000 2013
France
Per C
apita
Ele
ctri
city
Pro
duce
d (k
Wh/
pers
on)
0
2250
4500
6750
9000
2000 2013
Fossil Low-Carbon
Germany
2000 2013
Japan
2000 2013
ExportsExports
Exports
AIR POLLUTION & TRADE DEFICIT
Post-Fukushima, Japan increased its use of fossil fuels by 185 TWh (+40%) annually.
This results in roughly 4,000 additional deaths from air pollution, 40,000 serious illnesses, and 1 million minor illnesses.1
First trade deficit in 30 years, due to imported fossil fuels and higher energy prices for manufactured exports.
1. Markandya, A. & Wilkinson, P. Electricity generation and health. Lancet 370, 979–990 (2007).
Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy
CO2
Emis
sion
s (M
Mt)
800
925
1050
1175
1300
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy
CO2
Emis
sion
s (M
Mt)
800
925
1050
1175
1300
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy
CO2
Emis
sion
s (M
Mt)
800
925
1050
1175
1300
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy
CO2
Emis
sion
s (M
Mt)
800
925
1050
1175
1300
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy
CO2
Emis
sion
s (M
Mt)
800
925
1050
1175
1300
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Japan’s CO2 Emissions from Energy to 2050
CO2
Emis
sion
s (M
Mt)
300
550
800
1050
1300
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
ActualAbe 2013 TargetIEA Current PoliciesIEA New PoliciesIEA 450 PPM
THE NEED FOR NUCLEAR
Today
2040
Annual Generation (TWh)0 100 200 300 400
Nuclear Renewables
IEA 450 ppm Target
HISTORIC GROWTH IN LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY
Elec
tric
ity G
ener
atio
n (T
Wh)
0
125
250
375
500
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
NuclearRenewables
NECESSARY GROWTHEl
ectr
icity
Gen
erat
ion
(TW
h)
0
125
250
375
500
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
IEA 450 PPM Target
GROWTH IN RENEWABLESEl
ectr
icity
Gen
erat
ion
(TW
h)
0
35
70
105
140
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
HydroBiomassSolarWindGeo
GROWTH IN RENEWABLESEl
ectr
icity
Gen
erat
ion
(TW
h)
0
35
70
105
140
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035
IEA 450 PPM Target
LAND USE
1. McDonald, R. I., Fargione, J., Kiesecker, J., Miller, W. M. & Powell, J. Energy sprawl or energy efficiency: climate policy impacts on natural habitat for the United States of America. PLoS One 4, e6802 (2009).
Additional Land Needed for IEA’s 450 Scenario
Nuclear
Hydro
Bio
Wind
Geo
Solar
Square Kilometers0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
CAN JAPAN DECARBONIZE WITHOUT NUCLEAR?
No.
Difficult to decarbonize even with nuclear.
Industry and economy dependent on cheap domestic energy.