BREAKING:Whileoverallviolencehasdeclinedin2018,conflictisspreading

21December 2018:Despite a decrease in total fatalities this year, themajority of countriesexperiencedmoreconflict,expandingthescopeofpoliticalviolenceacrossAfrica,Asia,andtheMiddleEast.TheArmedConflictLocation&EventDataProject(ACLED)’s2018datashowthatboth the number of new locations experiencing violence and the number of armed actorsengaginginviolencehaverisensince2017.ACLEDdataalsoconfirmthatconflicthotspotslikeAfghanistan, Yemen, and Syria still have the highest rates of organized violence and highestdeathtolls,withacombinedtotalofnearly100,000reportedfatalitiesthisyear.

Commenting,ACLEDResearchDirectorRoudabehKishi:“Lookingatwhereeventcountsandreported fatalities are highest can help to identify conflict hotspots. But, relying on theseaggregate figures alone misses the whole picture of what happened in 2018. While politicalviolence decreased overall in volume, it also expanded. In 2018,more locations saw violence,more conflict actors emerged,more actors targeted civilians than before, andmore countriessaw disorder increase than decrease within their borders. Overall, the footprint of conflictexpandedsignificantly.”

TopTrends:● Political violence is spreading: The number of locations in which conflict occurred

increasedby11%worldwide

● Conflictactorscontinuetoproliferate:TherewasasubstantialincreaseinthenumberofactorsparticipatinginconflicteventsacrosstheareasofACLEDcoverage,witha16%increaseinthenumberofdistinctactorsactivefrom2017to2018

● Despite the growing prevalence of non-state actors, state actors remain the mostviolentactorsworldwide: Stateactors inYemen,Syria, andAfghanistanwereactive inthehighestnumberofconflicteventsin2018

● Conventionalwarfaredominates:Themost violent countries in theACLEDdataset in2018 are those with large conventional conflicts: Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Iraq.Together,thesefourcountriesmakeupnearly70%ofallorganizedviolenceeventsrecordedbyACLEDin2018

RegionalHotspots:● ThewarinAfghanistanisthemostlethalconflictintheworld:Afghanistanwasbyfar

thedeadliestcountrycoveredbyACLEDin2018,withnearlyasmanyfatalitiesasSyria andYemen combined, and 30%of all fatalities reported byACLEDduring the year at morethan41,000*

● Syria and Yemen remain flashpoints: The conflicts in these two countries had the highest number of organized political violence events in 2018 and were also themost dangerousplacesforcivilians.Syriaalonemadeupnearly40%ofthetotalnumberof violenceeventsrecordedfor2018,whilethiswasthedeadliestyearforYemensince ACLEDbeganmonitoringthewarin2016,withover28,100fatalities

● Syriaisthedeadliestplaceforcivilians:In2018,nearlyasmanycivilianswerekilledinSyria(over7,100)aswereinNigeria,Yemen,Afghanistan,andthePhilippinescombined(over 7,600 total) – the next four countries topping the list of deadliest countries forcivilians*

● The Philippines is a war zone in disguise: Over 1,000 civilians were killed in thePhilippinesin2018–morethaninIraq,Somalia,ortheDRC–highlightingthelethalityofDuterte’sstateterrorcampaigndubbedthe‘WaronDrugs’

This analysis is drawn from ACLED’s forthcoming report, Year in Review: 2018, by ACLEDResearchDirectorRoudabehKishiandResearchAnalystMelissaPavlik. Itwillbe issuedalongwithourannualdatareleaseinJanuary2019.

AUS-based 501c3 established in 2014,ACLED is the highest quality,mostwidely used, realtimedataandanalysissourceonpoliticalviolenceandprotestaroundtheworld.ACLEDistheonlydataproject providing publicly accessible realtime coverage of trends in 2018 that allows users toconductanalysisacrossarangeofdifferentmeasuresandmanifestationsofdisorder.Dataarefreetodownloadhere.

IfyouwouldliketouseACLEDanalysisorvisuals,pleasereviewourTermsofUseandAttributionPolicy.

Forinterviewrequestsandpressinquiries,pleasecontact:SamJones,CommunicationsOfficercommunications@acleddata.com

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*Note:“Fatalitynumbersarefrequentlythemostbiasedandpoorlyreportedcomponentofconflictdata.Theyareoftendebatedandcanvarywidely.Conflictactorsmayoverstateorunderreportfatalitiestoappearstrongtotheoppositionortominimizeinternationalbacklashagainstthestateinvolved.Andthenumberscanbeoffsimplybecauseit’sdifficulttocollectexactdatamid-conflict.WhileACLEDcodesthemostconservativereportsoffatalitycountstominimizeover-counting,thisdoesnotaccountforbiasesthatexistaroundfatalitycountsat-large.”InthecaseofAfghanistan,fatalitycountsareevenmoreunreliablegiventhenatureofreporting,andsomaybeovercountedhere,evendespiteACLED’sconservativefatalityestimating.Theunreliabilityoffatalityestimatesatlarge,andintheAfghancaseinparticular,cannotbeoverstated.

ACLED’s fatality estimates only include deaths directly caused by violence. Civilian fatality estimates only includecivilianskilledasaresultofdirectciviliantargeting;itdoesnotincludecollateralcivilianfatalities.Assuch,thenumberis assumed to represent an underestimate of total conflict-related civilian fatalities. Find more information aboutACLED’smethodologyforcodingfatalitieshere.