Bankability and return on investment of wind energy

projects: effect of local wind measurements on the cost

of financing and optimal performance

16 May 2013

Michiel Müller

© ECOFYS | |

What's new?

Michiel Müller 16/05/2013

windcube

(LeoSphere)

ZephIR

(ZephIR ltd.)

Wind Iris

(Avent Lidar Technology)

OCS 210

(Bluescout)

SpiDAR

(Pentalum)

Windar

(Windar Photonics)

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And what's the implication?

• Wind resource assessment

• Power curve validation

• Performance management

Michiel Müller 16/05/2013

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General method

Terrain Wind speed

Meteorological

model

Wind climate

Technique

Yield

model

AEP

Wind Resource Assessment Yield Prediction

Michiel Müller 16/05/2013

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Wind speed – Climate based

10 m

Source: Upwind

Source: KNMI

~10s km

Michiel Müller 16/05/2013

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Wind speed – Climate based

CONS PROS

Quality/consistency of data

(in NL: KNMI) Availability of data

Measurement height Low cost

Location Long-term

Ecofys disclaimer Many sites

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Do we have simple terrain in the

Netherlands?

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Open farmland, (polder) Close to coast, city, industry

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Wind speed – On-site measurements

2-4 D

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Impact of measurement on uncertainty

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Wind speed – On-site measurements

CONS PROS

Planning Acceptability/bankability

Cost Least uncertainty/Lowest risk

Short-term Best financing conditions

MCP needed

Other characterisation of wind

climate: turbulence, extremes,

wind shear

Michiel Müller 16/05/2013

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Uncertainties in WRA+YP

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Remaining uncertainties

• Future climate

• Other (future) developments

• Pv-curve

• Availability

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Requirements overall

• Independent

• Transparant (traceable)

• Quality

• Reputation

• References

• State of the art

Michiel Müller 16/05/2013

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Requirements wind speed data

On-site wind measurements

• Type of device (mast,

remote sensing)

• Duration

• Observation height

• Quality

• Documentation

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Requirements wind speed data

Wind speed information

• Meteorological data

• Quality

• Always needed for reference

• Modelled data

• Mesoscale model results

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Wind measurements

• Best practice up till now

• IEC compliant mast with cup anemometers

• calibration

• 2/3 hub height

• Industry acceptance

• LiDAR acceptable

• Equivalent wind speed concept

• New IEC standard

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LiDARs at Test site Lelystad

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Ecofys position paper (1)

LiDAR as good as mast, if:

• Type has been tested sufficiently

• Specimen has been validated against mast

• Procedure and data collection IEC compliant

Currently only Leosphere and Zephir meet criteria

Ecofys is of the opinion LiDAR can be comparable

with mast

Michiel Müller 16/05/2013

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Campaign strategies

• Climate-based assessment. No LiDAR or on-site

met mast

• On-site met mast for one year, 2/3 hub height.

No LiDAR

1. LiDAR stand-alone on-site, single position

2. On-site met mast for one year, 2/3 hub height.

LiDAR next to mast for 3 months

3. On-site met mast for one year, 2/3 hub height.

LiDAR at 4 sites (seasonal sampling)

Michiel Müller 16/05/2013

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Effect on uncertainty

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Other opportunties for LiDAR

• Capital efficient portfolio wind resource strategy

• Pv-curve validation in situ

• Performance management

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Capital efficient portfolio wind resource

strategy

Effect of seasonality (3 months campaign)

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Capital efficient portfolio wind resource

strategy

Effect of seasonality (all seasons covered)

12 months

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Pv-curve validation in situ

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Consolidating Islands of Information

Infrared Thermography

Vibration Analysis

Non-Destructive Testing

Lubrication Analysis

Motor Circuit Analysis

Operator Rounds

Maintenance Rounds

Visual Inspections

Data Historians

PLC’s

SCADA

DCS

Recommended Tasks

Analysis Results

PROCESS CONTROL TOOL

DCS

PLC’s

Data Historians

SCADA

INSPECTIONS

Visual Inspections

Maintenance Rounds

Operator Rounds

RCM

Analysis Results

Recommended Tasks

PREDICTIVE TOOLS

Infrared Thermography

Motor Circuit Analysis

Non-Destructive Testing

Lubrication Analysis

Vibration Analysis

Asset

Performance

Management for

Wind Power

Michiel Müller 16/05/2013

© ECOFYS | |

Take home

• Terrain in the Netherlands may be complex

• Measurements (full year) reduce uncertainty

• LiDAR can replace met mast (position paper I)

• Sharing LiDAR between campaigns can increase

cost effectiveness (position paper II)

• LiDAR/met mast combination for large sites

• Rapid deployment of LiDAR enables power curve

validation

• Asset performance management can improve

value of wind farms

Michiel Müller 16/05/2013

For more information, please contact:

Michiel Müller, Unit Manager Wind Energy

tel: +31 (0)30 662-3885

e-mail: m.mueller@ecofys.com