Global Overview of Energy with Emphasis on Sustainable

Sources:

Present Situation and Future Scenarios

ICSU’s Global-Regional Integration Workshop on Sustainable Energy

Mexico City, April 8th, 2013

Décio Luiz Gazzoni

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2

World Energy Demand

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

4

8

12

16

20

G to

e

Source: EIA: "International Energy Outlook 2010”

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32000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000

20

40

60

80

100

Renewable Conventional

Perc

ent

Renewables will get more share!

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4Source: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037183&contentId=7068609

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

20

30

40

50

60Proved reservesAnnual con-sumptionYears to go (R/P)

Prov

ed re

serv

es (b

illio

n ba

rrel

s)

Cons

umpt

ion

(bb)

and

R/P

(ye

ars)

There is enough oil for decades

4

5

1860

1865

1870

1875

1880

1885

1890

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

US$/

barr

el

Source: http://www.pdf-txt.com/xls/crude-oil-price.html

Oil prices are looking up

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

5,000

10,000

15,000 CoalOilNat Gas

Mt

of C

O2

Source: IEA Key world energy statistics

Other: 120 Mt (2010)

Emissions are looking up too

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Geography of oil reserves

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A new world is possible!

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The proliferation of supportive government policies

Rising costs of conventional energy

Dramatic reductions in renewable energy costs

Economies of scale in manufacturing

Claims for a cleaner environment

Diverse nature of motivations

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Security of energy supply Autonomy, resilience Jobs Industrial development Financial profit Portfolio risk mitigation Price risks of fossil fuels Rural energy access Climate change Environmental sustainability Nuclear accidents and wastes.

Diverse nature of motivations

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The ten major questionsThinking inside the box... but mainly outside the box!

How?How

much?

Who?

Where?

When?

What?

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Ways to invest in renewable energy

Local levels: new trends

National levels: growing markets

Globally: technology, costs and

markets

Let´s assume

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How much renewable energy?18% of renewables8% traditional; 10%

modern

IEA (1993) = 10% RE in 2030

50% of new electricity from RE in 2011

Sustained Growth (Shell) = 50% RE in 2050

IEA (2011) = 35% RE in 2050

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How much renewable energy?

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

20

40

60

80

100

Greenpeace (2012)

GEA "Efficiency" (2012)

IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)

IEA WEO New Policies (2012)

Exxon Mobil (2012)

Perc

ent

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15

How much renewable energy?

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20500

20

40

60

80

100

Greenpeace (2012)

GEA "Efficiency" (2012)

IEA ETP "2DS" (2012)

IEA WEO New Policies (2012)

Exxon Mobil (2012)

Perc

ent

RE will grow at higher rates

More intense close to 2050

Conservative bet: > 35%

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Is RE more expensive?

Common sense says yes, but...16

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Should consider:

Fuel and technology subsidies

Environmental costs

Fossil fuel price risk

Or less expensive?

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RE will cost less

Innovation +Externalities +

Rationalization =

Decreasing RE prices = RE costs less to the

society

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What is the future of policies?

Countries with public policies supporting RE

2005 = 55

2012 = 120

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Public policies supporting RE

Policies will be

paramount for RE

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Will RE mitigate Climatic Changes?

Scenarios surveyed by IPCC CO2 Concentration

1 – > 600 ppm 3 – 400 - 600 ppm 1 – < 400 ppm

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Will RE mitigate Climatic Changes?

Renewables share on the scenarios

50% - for 450 ppm 77% - for lower concentrations

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RE will mitigate Climatic Changes!

Higher shares of RE will be compulsory for

reducing energy related GHG Emission !

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Do RE need storage?

Common sense says yes, but...24

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Does RE need storage?

Probably not soon, but breakthrough low cost and high density technologies will be

necessary after 2050

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26Centralized / distributed grids?

Widely different visions

More local grids

Integration needed

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27Both will be necessary

Balanced wise

combination

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How much investment?2011 – US$ 290 billion

RE receives morenew power investment

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How much investment?From now to 2035 – US$6.4 trillionAfter 2035 – US$ 500 billion /yr

New financing sourcesand models for the future

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Oil and gas companiesBiofuels, biomass, solar

Wind offshore, hydrogen

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They will play the game!At the moment oil companies start investing at the same rate of others investors, than the RE share will accelerate its growing

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RE is as green as organic food

Sustainability

Green value chains

Corporation green image

Society trend

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Innovation and costs are tiedInnovation, scale andpublic policy are thetripod for the futurelarger share of RE at low cost

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Wind power onshoreWind power onshore grows fast

5 – 16 US cents / kWh

Best projects = < 5 cents / kWh

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Wind power onshoreMultiple innovations

New materials Lower weight Concrete towers Permanent magnet Direct drives Aerodynamics Substitutes for rare earths Information technology Smarter maintenance Cheaper small scale

turbines

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Wind offshore: longer way ahead

Present: 11 – 22 US cents / kWh

Trend 2035: 6 US cents / kWh

Supply chainsNew turbinesFloating foundationsNew system design

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PV: The future of the future

Home: 22 - 44 US cents / kWh

Utility: 20 - 37 US cents / kWh

Best projects: 9 - 13 US cents / kWh

Future: < 10 US cents / kWh37

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PV: Innovations are on the pipeline

Cell efficiency Thin films Dye, polymer and organic

PV Earth abundant materials Cheaper foundation Cheaper integration38

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Concentrating Solar Power

Present: 19 – 29 US cents / kWh

Future: 6 – 10 US cents / kWh

Higher temperatureLarger storage capacitySupercriticalDesalinationAir receiversGas turbinesHVDC transmission lines

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Geothermal, a mature technology

Present: 6 – 11 US cents / kWh

Trend to decline

Enhanced GeothermalLow temperature CHPDrilling

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Biomass replacing fossil fuels

8 -17 US cents / kWh Fuel supplies

Technical conversion and pathways

Heating technologies

Bio-refineries

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Biofuels, plenty of innovation

Biomass gasification

Sugar to biodiesel

Cellulosic fuels

Synthetic biology

New feedstocks, like microalgae

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Conclusions RE came to stay It is a matter of choice It is a true green energy Public acceptance Innovation, scale and

policies will make the difference

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To think upon“We can be almost certain that the future will not be a linear growth line from today. We always underestimate the future, which then produces surprises. I’m sure that some people is underestimating the growth of renewables as well.”

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MANY THANKS

A Global Overview of Energy with Emphasis on Sustainable Sources: Present Situation and Future Scenarios.

Décio Luiz GazzoniMéxico – April 8, 2013

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