Post on 24-Mar-2016
description
Argentina’s Default and the
‘Lucky’ Soybean Factor
CPA. Daniel A. Miró November 2012
Chart 1
Source: INDEC
Nóvitas S.A.
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
EXPORT PRICES INDEX base year 1993=100
Cereals Oilseeds Oils & Fats Oil Meals
Chart 2
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
SOYBEANS 139 642 504 773 1239 1113 1833
SOY OIL 2044 1740 1800 2170 2401 2561 3260
BIODIESEL 1011 1442 1206 907 1000 1280 2002
SOY MEAL
TOTAL SOYBEAN COMPLEX 3193 3824 3510 3850 4640 4955 7096
TOTAL EXPORTS 23333 26409 26610 25709 29566 34550 40013
% SHARE OF THE
SOYBEAN COMPLEX 14% 14% 13% 15% 16% 14% 18%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
SOYBEANS 1779 3415 4592 1654 4966 5335 3485
SOY OIL 4358 5741 7189 8051 8195 9789 4180
BIODIESEL 2789 4260 4734 3136 3959 4925 2282
SOY MEAL 5 135 845 913 1225 2142 9980
TOTAL SOYBEAN COMPLEX 8931 13551 17360 13754 18345 22191 19926
TOTAL EXPORTS 45456 55780 70589 55669 68500 84269 81954
% SHARE OF THE
SOYBEAN COMPLEX 20% 24% 25% 25% 27% 26% 24%
*Forecast
Source: INDEC
Nóvitas S.A.
Soybean Complex Share in Argentine Total Exports
(in Million US Dollars)
www.novitas.com.ar
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
4519
90/9
1
1991
/92
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
20
12
/13
*
Bill
ion
US
Do
llars
Argentina: Value of Grain Production and Export Taxes
Value of Grain Production
Amount of Export Taxes
*Forecast
Chart 3
-Can this trend continue?
-Is this just luck?
-Are we facing a new market
scenario?
The Grain Market and the
Changing “Dynamics” of
Demand
Source: USDA and Oil World
Nóvitas S.A.
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
WORLD POPULATION
COARSE GRAINS
WHEAT
CORN
OILSEEDS
SOYBEAN
EVOLUTION OF WORLD POPULATION AND THE WORLD DEMAND OF MAIN GRAINS AND OILSEEDS
Base Index 1976/77 - 1980/81 = 100
*Forecast
Chart 4
PERIOD 1975-2012 1995-2012
WORLD POPULATION 1,43% 1,17%
WHEAT 1,80% 1,26%
COARSE GRAINS 1,53% 1,68%
CORN 2,54% 2,61%
OILSEEDS 3,44% 3,16%
SOYBEAN 4,04% 4,02%
Chart 5
EVOLUTION OF WORLD POPULATION AND THE WORLD
DEMAND OF MAIN GRAINS AND OILSEEDS ANNUAL CUMULATIVE GROWTH RATES
The Trade/Consumption
Relation: A Key Indicator
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
64/6
5
66/6
7
68/6
9
70/7
1
72/7
3
74/7
5
76/7
7
78/7
9
80/8
1
82/8
3
84/8
5
86/8
7
88/8
9
90/9
1
92/9
3
94/9
5
96/9
7
98/9
9
00/0
1
02/0
3
04/0
5
06/0
7
08/0
9
10/1
1
12/1
3*
In M
illo
n T
on
s
Soybean: World Consumption and Soybean
Complex Exports
Consumption
Exports (in grain equivalent)
64%
*Forecast
Source: USDA
Nóvitas S.A.
Chart 6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1006
4/6
5
66
/67
68
/69
70
/71
72
/73
74
/75
76
/77
78
/79
80
/81
82
/83
84
/85
86
/87
88
/89
90
/91
92
/93
94
/95
96
/97
98
/99
00
/01
02
/03
04
/05
06
/07
08
/09
10
/11
12/1
3*
In M
illio
n T
on
sUSA: Soybean Production and Soybean Complex Exports
Production
Exports (In grain equivalent)
*Forecast
Source: USDANóvitas S.A.
54%
Chart 7
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
16080
/81
82/8
3
84/8
5
86
/87
88
/89
90/9
1
92/9
3
94/9
5
96
/97
98
/99
00/0
1
02/0
3
04/0
5
06
/07
08/0
9
10/1
1
12
/13
*
In M
illio
n T
on
sSouth America: Soybean Production and Soybean
Complex Exports
Production
Exports (in grain equivalent)
*Forecast
Source: USDANóvitas S.A.
75%
Chart 8
Nóvitas S.A.
ARGENTINA4,0%
BRAZIL24,0%
PARAGUAY0,5%
USA71,0%
OTHERS0,5%
NET WORLD EXPORTS OF THE SOYBEAN COMPLEX 1976/77-1978/79
SOUTH AMERICA 29%
TOTAL: 32,89 MILLION TONS.
ARGENTINA27,4%
BRAZIL32,0%
BOLIVIA1,1%
PARAGUAY4,2%
URUGUAY1%
USA30,7%
CANADA1,1%
INDIA2,3%
OTHERS0,4%
NET WORLD EXPORTS OF THE SOYBEAN COMPLEX 2010/11-2012/13
SOUTH AMERICA 65,6%
TOTAL: 154,91 MILLION TONS.
Chart 9
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
60/6
162
/63
64/6
566
/67
68/6
970
/71
72/7
374
/75
76/7
778
/79
80/8
182
/83
84/8
586
/87
88/8
990
/91
92/9
394
/95
96/9
798
/99
00/0
102
/03
04/0
506
/07
08/0
910
/11
12/1
3*
In M
illo
n T
on
sCORN: WORLD CONSUMPTION AND EXPORTS
Consumption
Exports
*Forecast
Source: USDANóvitas S.A.
11%
Chart 10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
3506
0/6
1
62
/63
64
/65
66
/67
68
/69
70
/71
72
/73
74
/75
76
/77
78
/79
80
/81
82
/83
84
/85
86
/87
88
/89
90
/91
92
/93
94
/95
96
/97
98
/99
00
/01
02
/03
04
/05
06
/07
08
/09
10
/11
12/1
3*
In M
illio
n T
on
s
USA: Corn Production and Exports
Production Exports
*Forecast
Source: USDANóvitas S.A.
11%
Chart 11
Soybean Supply: An American
Continent Issue
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
70
/71
72
/73
74
/75
76
/77
78
/79
80
/81
82
/83
84
/85
86
/87
88
/89
90
/91
92
/93
94
/95
96
/97
98
/99
00
/01
02
/03
04
/05
06
/07
08
/09
10
/11
12
/13
*
In M
illio
n T
on
sWORLD SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
OTHER COUNTRIES
MERCOSUR + BOLIVIA
USA + CANADA
*Forecast
Source: USDA
Nóvitas S.A.
Chart 12
Source: USDA
Nóvitas S.A.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
90
/91
91
/92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01
/02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10
/11
11
/12
12
/13
*
In M
illio
n H
ec
tare
sSOYBEAN AREA IN SOUTH AMERICA
Brazil Argentina
Paraguay Bolivia
Uruguay Others
*Forecast
Chart 13
Soybean Demand: The Chinese
‘Dilemma’
-65
-60
-55
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
80
/81
82
/83
84
/85
86
/87
88
/89
90
/91
92
/93
94
/95
96
/97
98
/99
00
/01
02
/03
04
/05
06
/07
08
/09
10
/11
12/1
3*
In M
illi
on
To
ns
CHINA: Net Trade of Soybeans
*Forecast
Source: USDA Nóvitas S.A.
Chart 14
4
10
16
22
28
34
40
46
52
58
64
70
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13*
In M
illlo
n T
on
s
Imports Crushings
CHINA: SOYBEAN CRUSHINGS & IMPORTS
*Forecast
Source: USDANóvitas S.A.
Chart 15
Source: OILWORLD
Nóvitas S.A.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
In M
illio
n T
on
sCHINA: SOYBEAN IMPORTS BY ORIGIN
OTHERS
SOUTH AMERICA
USA
Chart 16
Source: OIL WORLD - USDA
Nóvitas S.A.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
/81
81
/82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91
/92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01
/02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10
/11
11
/12
In M
illio
n T
on
s
USE OF PROTEIN MEALS IN CHINA
OTHERS
FISH MEAL
GROUNDNUT MEAL
COTTON MEAL
RAPE MEAL
SOY MEAL
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
80
/81
81
/82
82
/83
83
/84
84
/85
85
/86
86
/87
87
/88
88
/89
89
/90
90
/91
91
/92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01
/02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10
/11
11
/12
12
/13
In M
illio
n T
on
s
FEED USE OF GRAINS IN CHINA
CORN OTHERS WHEAT
Chart 17
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20In
Mil
lio
n T
on
s
CHINA: SOYBEAN PRODUCTION AND HUMAN CONSUMPTION
Production
Human Consumption
*Forecast
Source: Oil WorldNóvitas S.A.
Chart 18
www.novitas.com.ar
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
In M
illi
on
To
ns
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
CHINA: MONTHLY SOYBEAN IMPORTS
Chart 19
Soybean Demand and the
Biofuels ‘Fever’
www.novitas.com.ar
MATRIZ ENERGETICA MUNDIAL A VIEW ABOUT THE FUTURE OF
THE WORLD ENERGY EQUATION
Challenge: The Diversification of Energy Sources
We are Here
Traditional
Biomass
Coal
Modern
Biomass
Mineral Gas
Mineral Oil
Others
Chart 20
COUNTRIES 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 % VAR %
(2) (1) (1/2) 2012
Germany 2,55 2,93 2,67 2,49 2,55 2,73 2,40 -12,1 11,3%
France 0,74 0,87 1,86 2,00 2,00 1,78 1,80 1,1 8,5%
Italy 0,50 0,46 0,62 0,80 0,76 0,43 0,48 11,6 2,3%
Other E.U. 0,89 1,53 2,18 2,83 3,47 3,63 3,60 -0,8 17,0%
E.U. (27 countries) 4,88 6,02 7,57 8,87 9,58 9,13 9,00 -1,4 42,5%
BRAZIL 1,13 1,70 2,69 1,87 1,08 2,95 3,38 14,6 16,0%
ARGENTINA 0,05 0,18 0,71 1,18 1,82 2,43 2,60 7,1 12,3%
U.S.A. 0,06 0,36 1,03 1,42 2,10 2,35 2,20 -6,3 10,4%
OTHERS 1,04 1,37 2,10 2,56 3,83 4,00 4,00 0,0 18,9%
WORLD TOTAL 7,16 9,63 14,10 15,89 18,40 20,85 21,18 1,6 100,0%
Source; Oil World
Nóvitas S.A.
BIODIESEL WORLD PRODUCTION
In Million Tons
Chart 21
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
In M
illo
n T
on
sArgentina: Biodiesel Production and Capacity
Capacity
Production
Nóvitas S.A. *Forecast
Chart 22
The Role of ‘Structural
Exporters’
The Amazing Argentine Case
Cambiar colores – ampliar letras
59,5%65,5%
90,3%
58,8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
WHEAT CORN SOYBEAN SUNFLOWER
ARGENTINA: AVERAGE INTERNAL PRODUCTION EXPORTED IN THE LAST 5 YEARS
AS DERIVATIVESAS GRAINS/OILSEEDS
Source: Argentine Ag MinistyNóvitas S.A.
Chart 23
80/81
81/82
82/83
83/84
84/85
85/86
86/87
87/88
88/89
89/90
90/91
91/92
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange & Argentine Ag Ministry
Nóvitas S.A.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
358
0/8
1
82
/83
84
/85
86
/87
88
/89
90
/91
92
/93
94
/95
96
/97
98
/99
00
/01
02
/03
04
/05
06
/07
08
/09
10
/11
12
/13*
In M
illio
n H
ec
tare
sARGENTINA: EVOLUTION OF PLANTED AREA WITH CEREALS AND OILSEEDS
CEREALS
OILSEEDS
*Forecast
Chart 24
Source: USDA
Nóvitas S.A.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Argentina Brazil USA
In t
Millio
n T
on
sSOYBEAN OIL DEMAND STRUCTURE:
ARGENTINA, BRAZIL AND THE USA IN 2012/13
Biodiesel exportsSoybean oil exportsBiodiesel domestic useSoybean oil domestic use
Chart 25
EVOLUTION OF PRODUCTION AND OVERHEAD COSTS FOR
MAIN CROPS IN ARGENTINA (In US Dollars per Hectare)
Production Overhead Production Overhead Production Overhead
05/06 (A) 173 99 267 99 146 76
06/07 182 113 277 113 169 86
07/08 183 121 290 121 190 105
08/09 199 141 309 141 208 112
09/10 211 145 345 145 217 120
10/11 216 153 345 153 237 131
11/12 244 165 395 165 261 134
12/13 (B) 282 185 476 185 366 150
(B/A) 63% 87% 78% 87% 151% 97%
(1) GMO, Cero Tillage, Main Soybean Belt
(2) Cero Tillage, Main Corn Belt
(3) Conventional Tillage, Southeastern Areas
SOYBEANS (1) CORN (2) WHEAT (3)
Chart 26
Looking into the Future
-Limited Availability in Grain
Markets
-Is Corn Facing a Similar
Imbalance as Soybeans?
-Is there a ‘Quick’ Solution?
Source: USDA
Nóvitas S.A.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
358
9/9
0
90
/91
91
/92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01
/02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10
/11
11
/12
12
/13
%CORN: WORLD AND U.S. STOCK/USE RATIO
World U.S.A.
Chart 27
05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 12/13 VAR %
(1) (2) Nóvitas (2/1)
Corn 699,74 714,05 794,22 799,54 821,20 830,29 877,75 839,0 827,0 -4,4
Barley 136,22 136,97 133,08 155,05 150,76 122,78 134,06 130,7 132,5 -2,5
Sorghum 59,62 57,51 65,98 64,70 54,27 62,47 53,78 59,5 58,8 10,6
Millet 30,63 31,66 32,14 32,76 28,28 34,98 32,94 30,7 30,6 -6,7
Oats 23,93 22,77 25,75 25,80 23,52 19,84 22,99 21,5 22,0 -6,7
Mixed Grain 14,52 12,20 14,39 17,32 17,52 11,44 12,87 13,8 13,3 7,6
Rye 15,71 13,56 15,10 15,98 17,20 15,56 14,44 14,9 15,1 2,9
TOTAL 980,36 988,72 1080,67 1111,13 1112,74 1097,35 1148,83 1110,1 1099,3 -3,4
Nóvitas S.A.
Source: USDA
WORLD PRODUCTION OF COARSE GRAINS
In Million Tons
Chart 28
Production Use Ending Stock Stock/Use
Season Ratio (%)
1988/89 722,8 780,3 204,0 26,1
1989/90 794,3 814,9 183,4 22,5
1990/91 828,8 815,2 197,1 24,2
1991/92 812,2 813,1 196,3 24,1
1992/93 868,9 841,4 221,3 26,3
1993/94 797,6 836,2 182,7 21,8
1994/95 869,4 853,8 198,3 23,2
1995/96 800,9 835,8 163,4 19,6
1996/97 909,1 869,5 203,0 23,3
1997/98 881,4 867,9 216,4 24,9
1998/99 891,5 869,7 238,1 27,4
1999/00 878,1 882,6 233,1 26,4
2000/01 863,7 884,7 212,0 24,0
2001/02 896,6 909,0 199,6 22,0
2002/03 873,6 901,2 172,1 19,1
2003/04 916,0 944,8 143,3 15,2
2004/05 1015,6 978,9 180,0 18,4
2005/06 980,4 994,0 166,3 16,7
2006/07 988,7 1013,5 141,5 14,0
2007/08 1080,7 1057,4 164,8 15,6
2008/09 1111,1 1081,0 194,9 18,0
2009/10 1112,7 1111,0 196,7 17,7
2010/11 1097,4 1129,5 164,6 14,6
2011/12 1148,8 1148,6 164,8 14,3
2012/13 1110,1 1128,6 146,3 13,0
2012/13 Nóvitas 1099,3 1124,0 140,1 12,5
Nóvitas S.A.
COARSE GRAINS: WORLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND
In Million Tons
Source: USDA
Chart 29
* Forecast
Nóvitas S.A.
EVOLUTION OF THE U.S. STOCKS/USE RELATIONS
Source: USDA
0
5
10
15
20
25
308
8/8
9
89
/90
90
/91
91
/92
92
/93
93
/94
94
/95
95
/96
96
/97
97
/98
98
/99
99
/00
00
/01
01
/02
02
/03
03
/04
04
/05
05
/06
06
/07
07
/08
08
/09
09
/10
10
/11
11
/12
12
/13*
%
CORN SOYBEANS
Chart 30
The 2012/13 Soybean Campaign
in South America
A ‘Key’ Crop
NOVITAS
OCT
Planted Area (Million Hectares) 30,4 30,4 30,4 30,8 30,8 31,3 31,3
Harvested Area (Million Hectares) 29,8 29,8 29,9 30,2 30,2 30,4 30,3
Yields (Tons/Ha) 2,790 2,790 2,817 2,427 2,373 2,541 2,258
Begining Stocks 5,9 5,9 5,9 3,9 3,5 4,6 4,6
Production 83,2 83,2 84,2 73,3 71,7 77,8 75,1
Imports 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5
Total Supply 89,4 89,4 90,4 77,7 75,8 83,0 80,2
Crushings 46,0 46,4 46,3 41,2 40,8 41,9 41,7
Other Uses 2,7 2,5 2,4 3,2 3,2 3,1 2,8
Exports 36,7 37,0 37,0 30,2 28,7 34,4 32,3
Total Use 85,5 85,9 85,9 74,6 72,7 79,4 76,8
Ending Stocks 3,9 3,5 4,6 3,1 3,1 3,5 3,4
Stocks/Consumption Rel. (%) 4,6% 4,1% 5,3% 4,2% 4,3% 4,4% 4,4%
OCTSEP OCT AUGAUG SEP
USA: SUPPLY & DEMAND OF SOYBEANSUSDA USDA
11/12 12/13
Chart 31
SOYBEAN: SOUTH AMERICAN PRODUCTION
In Million Tons
04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13*
BRAZIL 53,00 57,00 59,00 61,00 57,80 69,00 75,50 66,50 81,00
ARGENTINA 39,00 40,50 48,80 46,20 32,00 54,50 49,00 41,00 55,00
PARAGUAY 4,04 3,64 5,58 5,97 3,65 7,38 8,31 4,00 8,10
URUGUAY 0,48 0,63 0,82 0,81 1,17 1,82 1,55 1,60 1,90
BOLIVIA 2,03 2,06 1,65 1,05 1,60 1,67 2,10 2,20 2,30
OTHERS 0,17 0,13 0,15 0,18 0,20 0,21 0,21 0,21 0,21
TOTAL 98,72 103,96 116,00 115,21 96,42 134,57 136,67 115,51 148,51
Source: USDA *Forecast
Nóvitas S.A.
Chart 32
Funds Waiting:
A 15/20 million tons failure in
South American soybean
production will give us back
record prices
www.novitas.com.ar
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CBOT Soybeans: Nearby Quotes and Net Fund Positions
Speculative Funds
Index Funds
Nearby Quotes
Chart 33