Post on 08-Jul-2020
April 2020 Enrollment Update and Blueprint APS Charge 2
Presented by:
David Schoenhals, Blueprint APS Project Manager and
Josh Hensley, Planning Coordinator
Date: May 12, 2020
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future1
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Presentation Purpose
Why is this topic on the board agenda?
To provide the Board of Education and update on enrollment and Blueprint APS
Charge 2
What are we asking the board to do with this information?
Information only
How is this linked to the Strategic Plan, Vision, Mission, Goals & Core Beliefs?
All students must have equitable access to learning opportunities, technology
and environments that support them in reaching their full potential.
Community partnerships provide vital resources and opportunities for students
and families.
Which Board policy does your presentation address?
Section F – Facilities Planning and Development2
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2020-21
Projection
ES 16,882 16,235 15,084 14,200 13,954 13,331
Change -647 -1,151 -884 -246 -623
Percent Change -3.83% -7.09% -5.86% -1.73% -4.46%
MS 7,705 7,558 7,394 7,329 7,268 7,122
Change -147 -164 -65 -61 -146
Percent Change -1.91% -2.17% -0.88% -0.83% -2.01%
HS 9,947 10,071 9,873 9,572 9,574 9,475
Change 124 -198 -301 2 -99
Percent Change 1.25% -1.97% -3.05% 0.02% -1.03%
Total 34,534 33,864 32,351 31,101 30,796 29,928
Change -670 -1,513 -1,250 -305 -868
Percent Change -1.94% -4.47% -3.86% -0.98% -2.82%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2020-21
Projection
ES 2,808 2,869 3,453 3,519 3,686 3,793
Change 61 584 66 167 107
Percent Change 2.17% 20.36% 1.91% 4.75% 2.90%
MS 1,131 1,180 1,215 1,401 1,704 2,010
Change 49 35 186 303 306
Percent Change 4.33% 2.97% 15.31% 21.63% 17.96%
HS 339 350 355 293 440 573
Change 11 5 -62 147 133
Percent Change 3.24% 1.43% -17.46% 50.17% 30.23%
Total 4,278 4,399 5,023 5,213 5,830 6,376
Change 121 624 190 617 546
Percent Change 2.83% 14.19% 3.78% 11.84% 9.37%
Charter Historical and Projected K-12 Enrollment
Traditional Historical and Projected K-12 Enrollment
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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future4
2015-16Change Since
Oct Ct2016-17
Change Since Oct Ct
2017-18Change
Since Oct Ct2018-19
Change Since Oct Ct
2019-20Change
Since Oct Ct
October 34,534 33,864 32,351 31,101 30,796November 34,382 -152 33,687 -177 32,296 -55 31,028 -73 30,687 -109December 34,242 -292 33,610 -254 32,079 -272 30,928 -173 30,670 -126
January 34,259 -275 33,647 -217 32,098 -253 30,983 -118 30,499 -297February 34,169 -365 33,600 -264 32,049 -302 30,974 -127 30,390 -406
March 34,125 -409 33,508 -356 31,920 -431 30,919 -182 30,362 -434April 34,128 -406 33,533 -331 31,871 -480 30,973 -128 30,363 -433May 34,011 -523 33,462 -402 31,822 -529 30,931 -170 -30,796
Traditional APS K-12 Monthly Enrollment (2015-16 to 2019-20)
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Traditional APS Elementary School Monthly Enrollment (2015-16 to 2019-20)
2015-16Change
Since Oct Ct2016-17
Change Since Oct Ct
2017-18Change
Since Oct Ct2018-19
Change Since Oct Ct
2019-20Change
Since Oct Ct
October 16,882 16,235 15,084 14,200 13,954November 16,856 -26 16,158 -77 15,103 19 14,208 8 13,989 35December 16,814 -68 16,155 -80 15,036 -48 14,214 14 14,006 52
January 16,829 -53 16,259 24 15,069 -15 14,281 81 13,992 38February 16,821 -61 16,254 19 15,087 3 14,339 139 13,998 44
March 16,836 -46 16,226 -9 15,036 -48 14,352 152 14,007 53April 16,863 -19 16,266 31 15,031 -53 14,409 209 14,015 61May 16,809 -73 16,225 -10 15,002 -82 14,401 201 -13,954
Traditional APS Middle School Monthly Enrollment (2015-16 to 2019-20)
2015-16Change
Since Oct Ct2016-17
Change Since Oct Ct
2017-18Change
Since Oct Ct2018-19
Change Since Oct Ct
2019-20Change
Since Oct Ct
October 7,705 7,558 7,394 7,329 7,268November 7,707 2 7,556 -2 7,432 38 7,345 16 7,277 9December 7,664 -41 7,536 -22 7,409 15 7,326 -3 7,273 5
January 7,686 -19 7,573 15 7,425 31 7,371 42 7,256 -12February 7,693 -12 7,584 26 7,429 35 7,368 39 7,224 -44
March 7,701 -4 7,582 24 7,412 18 7,352 23 7,218 -50April 7,699 -6 7,578 20 7,410 16 7,380 51 7,229 -39May 7,675 -30 7,567 9 7,406 12 7,369 40 -7,268
Traditional APS High School Monthly Enrollment (2015-16 to 2019-20)
2015-16Change
Since Oct Ct2016-17
Change Since Oct Ct
2017-18Change
Since Oct Ct2018-19
Change Since Oct Ct
2019-20Change
Since Oct Ct
October 9,947 10,071 9,873 9,572 9,574November 9,819 -128 9,973 -98 9,761 -112 9,475 -97 9,421 -153December 9,764 -183 9,919 -152 9,634 -239 9,388 -184 9,391 -183
January 9,744 -203 9,815 -256 9,604 -269 9,331 -241 9,251 -323February 9,655 -292 9,762 -309 9,533 -340 9,267 -305 9,168 -406
March 9,588 -359 9,700 -371 9,472 -401 9,215 -357 9,137 -437April 9,566 -381 9,689 -382 9,430 -443 9,184 -388 9,119 -455May 9,527 -420 9,670 -401 9,414 -459 9,161 -411 -9,574
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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future6
Schools Above 15 Students from October Count 2019-20
to April 27, 2020
Schools Below 15 Studentsfrom October Count 2019-20
to April 27, 2020Vista PEAK Exploratory P-8 18 Aurora Central HS -156
Hinkley HS -93Gateway HS -89Rangeview HS -56Vista PEAK Preparatory HS -48Mrachek MS -47Iowa ES -22
Possible factors that may result in additional enrollment decline:
• Families leaving APS and the Denver metro area because of large number of workers in industries impacted by layoffs and because of housing affordability
• Fewer families moving into Colorado and the Denver metro area as a result of a depressed job market
• Significant decline in new residential development
• More families choosing multi-district online and home school programs after exposure to these learning environments and fear of sending kids to physical schools
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future7
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
178
402
614
649
1,216
1,351
1,388
1,915
1,993
4,376
4,513
4,599
5,128
5,749
5,984
6,217
6,298
6,697
7,036
7,260
8,824
9,228
15,435
17,046
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations
Law enforcement workers including supervisors
Legal occupations
Life, physical, and social science occupations
Community and social service occupations
Firefighting and prevention, and other protective service workers including supervisors
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations
Architecture and engineering occupations
Personal care and service occupations
Computer and mathematical occupations
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations
Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations
Educational instruction, and library occupations
Healthcare support occupations
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations
Transportation occupations
Material moving occupations
Management occupations
Business and financial operations occupations
Production occupations
Food preparation and serving related occupations
Sales and related occupations
Construction and extraction occupations
Office and administrative support occupations
Total Occupations within APS - 2018
Source: American Community Survey (ACS) 2018 1 Year Estimates-http://www.census.gov/data
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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future9
190
51
18
9
30
1418
50
68
4640
56 5953
234
197
76
45
2935
23
50
37
90
55 57
88
78
102
0
82
15
50
2218 20
47
77
3442
46
5559
208
0
24 2519
2821 19
4957
30
44
60
26
53
269
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020(To Date)
E-470 Development - Building Permits (BP) by Quarter (2006 - 2020)
1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter
493 167 132 88 104 76 164 221 222 187 203 225 249 632234
Possible factors that may result in increased enrollment:
• More families moving into APS because of the high proportion of rental housing and the relative affordability compared to other communities in the Denver metro area
• More families moving to the Denver metro area from mountain and resort communities if the recreation and hospitality industry rebounds slower than other sectors
• Doubling up of households
• Disruption in normal summer transiency
• Increases in student grade retention
• Charter school impact
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future10
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future11
Source: US Census 2000 & 2010 SF2 HCT2; Census 2000 APS data provided by NCES- https://nces.ed.gov/surveys/sdds/selectgeo.asp?geo=districts&detail=dnamesAmerican Community Survey (ACS) 2018 1 Year Estimates- http://www.census.gov/data
Metro Area Counties Included: Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Denver, Douglas, and Jefferson
APS and Denver Metro Area Percent Renter Occupied Housing Units (2000, 2010, and 2018)
40%
45% 46%
34%36% 37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2000 2010 2018
APS Percent Renter Occupied Units Metro Area Percent Renter Occupied Units
• 46% of the Occupied housing units in APS are rental. The number of rental units has increased by over 4,000 since 2010
*Enrollment includes : traditional, charter, and program students
APS K-12 Enrollment and Colorado Job Growth Percent Change
20
16
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics County High-Level https://www.bls.gov/cew/downloadable-data-files.htm
2.19% 2.36%
0.37%
-5.79%
-0.19%
2.35%2.21%
3.11%
3.71%
2.83%2.56%
2.00% 2.18% 2.37%
-6.00%
-5.00%
-4.00%
-3.00%
-2.00%
-1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
APS All K-12 Percent Annual Enrollment Change Colorado Percent Job Growth
Annual percent change represents year over year change from September to September for Total Industries
Great Recession
• Between 2007 and 2012, APS K-12 enrollment grew by over 5,600 students an increase of over 17%
• Between 2015 and 2019, APS K-12 enrollment declined by over -2,200 a decline of almost -5%
12
13https://www.shiftresearchlab.org/projects/doubled-up-households-in-colorado
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Enrollment Metrics
• Continue tracking and reporting enrollment by school and grade on a weekly basis through the remainder of the 2019-20 school year
• Track and report enrollment by school and grade for the 2020-21 school year weekly throughout the summer
• Track and report enrollment by school and grade daily starting twelve days before the first day of the 2020-21 school yearo Compare daily enrollment to the same day of the school year for the last three years to
analyze changes in enrollment trendso Identify and report locations with large increases or significant declines in enrollment
• Provide weekly enrollment updates to district Leadership Team starting on the first day of the 2020-21 school year
• Provide the Board of Education with the annual enrollment update at the first Board meeting in October
• Continue tracking and reporting building permit and certificate of occupancy data for residential developments along the E-470 corridor on a quarterly basiso Monitor development activity throughout the APS community
• Collaborate with the Colorado Demography office, the City of Aurora, the Aurora Housing Authority, the development community and other data partners to assess current data related to community change and mobility
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future15
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Scenarios Related to Blueprint APS
Charge 2 Future Possibilities
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• During Phase 2 of Blueprint APS, the APS Board of Education directed framework included a plan for APS operated boundary schools along with magnet schools with specializations to ensure a variety of educational opportunities. The framework also included the idea of repurposing parts or entire buildings to support enhanced wraparound services.
• For the 2019-2020 school year, Charge 2 of the Blueprint work was to have region 3 go through a process that would include determining boundary schools, a magnet school, P-8(s), and any other repurposed buildings or parts of buildings along with their new purpose. In region 2, a determination was to be made foe the location of the district’s next P-8 school
• As the work around Charge 2 has been postponed into the 2020-2021 school year, we will be looking at the different factors in terms of enrollment/enrollment projections that will impact how and when the work will move forward.
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future17
Previous Timeline for 2019-20
April 9, 14, 28 RDT/LRFAC Meetings: Assess viable repurposing and P-8 options for Region 3 and a new building for Region 2. Considerations would include student enrollment projections, building enrollment vs. capacity and space utilization data.
April 29 LRFAC Meeting Assess and develop Charge 2 recommendations for Regions 2 and 3.
May 12 BOE Meeting LRFAC presents Charge 2 recommendations for Regions 2 and 3.
June 2 BOE Meeting District staff presents 2016 Bond Program funding adjustments.
June 16 BOE Meeting BOE votes on Charge 2 recommendations for Region 2 and Region 3. BOE votes on 2016 Bond Program adjustment recommendations.
Charge 2
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future18
The work for Charge 2 is postponed and will take place during the 2020-21 school year. There are three different scenarios in terms of enrollment that will impact how the work will move forward. These include the following:
1. Actual enrollment closely matches current projections for the 2020-21 school year.
2. Actual enrollment is significantly lower than current projections for the2020-21 school year throughout the district and/or within regions in the district.
3. Actual enrollment is significantly higher than current projections for the 2020-21 school year throughout the district and/or within regions in the district.
Charge 2
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future19
Charge 2 with Scenario 1 – Actual Enrollment Similar to Projected Enrollment
Region 2:Determine the location of the district’s next P-8 school andbuild a new P-8 school in response to new residential developments within the region. (Aug-Dec)
Region 3:Determine boundary schools, a magnet school, P-8 school(s) and any other repurposed buildings or parts of buildings along with their new purpose. (Aug-Dec)
Other Regions:Determine the next region(s) that will go through the Charge 2 process during the 2021-2022 school year. (Jan)
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future20
Region 2:Meet with developers and explore a location to build a new P-8 school in response to new residential developments within the region. Determine a timeline, which may be slower.Collect additional data to inform these decisions. (Aug – Dec)
Region 3:Determine boundary schools, a magnet school, P-8 school(s) and any other repurposed buildings or parts of buildings along with their new purpose. There may need to be greater repurposing of buildings for non-classroom use and faster timelines (potentially for 2021-2022) to respond to enrollment shifts and to create greater efficiency. Collect additional data to inform these decisions. (Aug-Dec)
Other Regions:Determine which additional region(s) will go through the Charge 2 process in a more accelerated timeline. One possibility in the other Design Region(s) may be a greaterrepurposing of buildings for non-classroom use to take place with a faster timeline (potentially for 2021-2022). (Aug – Dec)
Charge 2 with Scenario 2 – Actual Enrollment Significantly Lower Than
Projected Enrollment
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future21
Region 2Determine a location to build a new P-8 school in response to new developments within the region. Determine timeline, which may be faster. Collect additional data to inform these decisions. (Aug-Dec)
Region 3Determine boundary schools, a magnet school, P-8 school(s) and any other repurposed buildings or parts of buildings along with their new purpose. There may be less repurposing of buildings for non-classroom use or slower timelines. Collect additional data to inform these decisions. (Aug – Dec)
Other RegionsDetermine the next region(s) that will go through the Charge 2 process in 2021-2022. (Jan)
Charge 2 with Scenario – Actual Enrollment Significantly Greater Than
Projected Enrollment
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future22
Charge 2 2020-21 Timeline
Ongoing Planning Department will analyze enrollment trends throughout the district and within individual regions.
Aug - Sept RDTs will determine recommendations for LRFAC around new use of repurposed buildings or parts of repurposed building spaces in region 3.
Aug- Nov LRFAC will work in conjunction with RDTs to provide relevant data and information and create recommendations for the BOE around boundary schools, P-8(s), a magnet school and new use for repurposed buildings or parts of buildings for region 3. Determine recommendations for where a new P-8 will be built in region 2. Significantly lower enrollment or projected enrollment mayresult in additional region(s) going through a process similar to the one region 3 will go through on this timeline.
Dec 2020 LRFAC and District staff will provide recommendations to BOEaround Charge 2.
Jan 2021 Determine the next region(s) that will go through the Charge 2 process in 2021-2022.
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future23
Submitted Questions
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Appendix
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*Preschool enrollment includes Non-APS Facility students
District P-12 Enrollment Breakdown by Type(2010-11 to 2020-21 Projected)
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
School Year
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-202020-21
Projected
Oct. Count
38,847 39,903 40,035 41,161 42,065 42,569 42,111 41,252 40,280 40,505 40,183
DistrictP-12
Change
1,614 1,056 132 1,126 904 504 -458 -859 -972 225 -322
4.33% 2.72% 0.33% 2.81% 2.20% 1.20% -1.08% -2.04% -2.36% 0.56% -0.79%
2010 to 2015 Total Change: 3,722 (9.6%)
2010 to 2015 Average Annual Percent Change: 1.85%
2015 to 2019 Total Change: -2,064 (-4.8%)
2015 to 2019 Average Annual Percent Change: -1.23%
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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Blueprint APS - 10 Year Facility Plan Framework
1) Open at least six new P-8 schools in APS by constructing new buildings or by repurposing through remodeling or replacing existing facilities New P-8 schools may be a combination of boundary schools and APS operated choice schools
connected to Centers of Excellence.
Construct at least three new P-8 schools in the eastern half of the school district where enrollment is increasing as a result of housing development. The first of the three new P-8 schools should serve the E-470 corridor north of I-70 where no schools currently exist.
Assess opportunities to repurpose by replacing or remodeling at least three existing elementary and/ or middle schools in the west half of the district into P-8s.
2) Transition from a system of neighborhood schools to a boundary model by developing new boundaries for existing schools Identify schools most appropriate to serve as boundary schools based on building locations,
neighborhood demographics, and facility assets.
New boundaries will be larger than the current elementary and middle school attendance areas in order to increase operational efficiency.
New boundaries will incorporate impact of expanding choice schools. The number of boundary schools will depend on the number of choice schools including district magnet and charter schools.
The process to develop new boundaries should start in areas west of I-225 where operational efficiency has decreased with declining enrollment.
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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Blueprint APS - 10 Year Facility Plan Framework (continued)
3) Align facilities to meet the needs of expanded district managed choice programs
Identify schools most appropriate to consider for repurposing based on building locations, neighborhood demographics, and facility assets.
Remodel facilities as needed to address needs of new programs.
4) Organize transportation routes to support new school boundaries and magnate programs
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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
What does Repurposing mean?
Repurposing Buildings may include:
–Reconfiguration of grade levels that a school building serves to emphasize APS’ P-8 model,
–Using repurposed buildings for magnet schools, community centers, other choice offerings, or other district uses,
–Consolidation of school buildings, and/or
–Closing of school buildings.
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*Preschool enrollment includes Non-APS Facility students
Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
How should APS respond to schools that are seeing declining enrollment as a result of a number of factors?
• APS will transition from neighborhood schools to boundary schools. This means schools may serve multiple neighborhoods, particularly for grades P-8.
• In expanding the geographic service areas that elementary, middle, P-8 schools serve, APS will need to repurpose some facilities. Repurposing of school buildings could include any of the following possibilities:
–Reconfiguration of grade levels that a school building serves to emphasize APS’ P-8 model,–Using repurposed buildings for magnet schools, community centers, other choice offerings, or other district uses,–Consolidation of school buildings, –Closing of school buildings, and/or–Selling assets.
• This approach allows APS to align existing parts of the district to a successful education model with P-8 schools, as well as increase the long-term operational efficiency of buildings. It will also create opportunities for more district choice options and a variety of grade sizes and configurations.
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Every Student Shapes a Successful Future
Thank You!
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