An agent-based model of jaguar movements through

conservation corridorsAngela Watkins

Jason Noble and C. Patrick Doncaster

Background Aims Methodology The Model Results Conclusion Current Work

Order of Events

Background

The most important threats to global biodiversity

Less habitat means fewer individuals

Populations become increasingly isolated

Habitat loss and fragmentation

Pictures taken from advocacy.britannica.com, dailyreckoning.com.au, king.portlandschools.org

respectively.

Connect local sub-populations Reduce the risk of local extinctions

Effective conservation requires the description of a landscape from an

individual species’ perspective in order to measure, understand and conserve

‘functional habitat connectivity’

Corridors, Connectivity and Conservation

Largest cat in the Americas, third largest in the world

Apex predator and keystone species Territorial and solitary Preferred habitat:

◦ Tropical rainforest◦ Subtropical rainforest

Jaguar

Jaguar range

Historic Range

Current Range

Link between two protected areas

Critical area linking populations to the north and the south

Subject to urban expansion

Central Belize Corridor

Jaguar Corridors

Jaguar Populations

Aims

Build a simple agent-based model of jaguar movement

Explore the effect of landscape structure on the population

Investigate how corridors can connect discrete habitat patches

Methodology

Individual agents represent individual organisms

Interactions between individuals

Interactions between individuals and the landscape

Agents encoded with rules that mimic simplified real behaviours

Agent-based simulations

Least-cost models

Habitat maps used to ‘cost’ the landscape

Species-specific

‘Organisms use a route of least resistance’

Taken from: Rabinowitz, A. & Zeller, K. A. (2010) A range-wide model of landscape connectivity and conservation for the

Jaguar, Panthera Onca. Biological Conservation 143: 939-945.

The Model

Model landscapes

3 controls

3 non-connected

3 connected

Cost Values

Habitat Cost

Forest 1

Edge 5

Non-forest 25

9-cell Moore neighbourhoods

Sex-specific movement rates◦ Males - 100%, females – 70%

Sex-specific territoriality◦ Pheromones add a cost to the cell

5% random moves

Model parameters

Results

Clearly identified territories and habitat choice

No strong difference in average landscape cost value

Map Layout

Connected corridors promote movement between patches

Map Layout

Conclusions

Plausible territorial behaviour

Not all corridors are the same

Critical feature for cost: amount of habitat

Key difference:

capacity to promote migration from one patch to another

Current Work

Integrate model with real-world GIS data Validate agent movement with empirical

data

Aims

Least-cost route choice Pheromones Male preference for trails Female avoidance of males? Difference in movement inside vs.

outside Cockscomb? Male vs. female movement rates

Key Parameters

SupervisorsJason Noble and C. Patrick Doncaster

Jaguar Corridor InitiativeBart Harmsen and Rebecca Foster

This work was supported by an EPSRC Doctoral Training Centre grant (EP/G03690X/1).

Acknowledgements

Any questions?