An Overview of South Africa’s Schooling System

NicSpaull.comIPSU – Economic and Development Problems in Africa| 25 February 2014

Outline

Recurring themes I want you to notice• Access/quantity vs quality• Is it an accountability or a capacity

constraint/solution?• Status quos are usually equilibria – i.e. we have

what we have (and it stays what it is) for a reason

Main issues to be covered:1. SA performs extremely poorly on local and

international assessments of educational achievement

2. In large parts of the schooling system there is little learning taking place

3. In SA we have TWO public schooling systems, not one.

4. Selected issues – teacher content knowledge, textbook availability (SMS)

5. Accountability & Capacity6. Binding constraints

Social Policy & Education

Firstly, what is social policy?“Social policy primarily refers to the guidelines, principles, legislation and activities that affect the living conditions conducive to human welfare”

“Public policy and practice in the areas of health care, human services, criminal justice, inequality, education, and labour”

“Social Policy is defined as actions that affect the well-being of members of a society through shaping the distribution of and access to goods and resources in that society”

• Secondly, how does education fit into it?

– Most areas of social policy influence education (in some way), and are influenced by education (in some way)

– Bidirectional causality

– Multiple benefits of education…

Benefits of education

Improvements in productivityEconomic growthReduction of inter-generational cycles of povertyReductions in inequality

Lower fertilityImproved child healthPreventative health careDemographic transition

Improved human rightsEmpowerment of womenReduced societal violencePromotion of a national (as opposed to regional or ethnic) identityIncreased social cohesion

$Society Health Economy

Specific references: lower fertility (Glewwe, 2002), improved child health (Currie, 2009), reduced societal violence (Salmi, 2006), promotion of a national - as opposed to a regional or ethnic - identity (Glewwe, 2002), improved human rights (Salmi, 2006), increased social cohesion (Heyneman, 2003), Economic growth – see any decent Macro textbook, specifically for cognitive skills see (Hanushek & Woessman 2008)

• Secondly, how does education fit into it?

– Education itself affects society & the individual in real and meaningful ways:

• Transforms individual capabilities, values, aspirations and desires (see Sen)• Allows individuals to think, feel and act in different ways• Enables new ways of organizing and supporting social action that depend on

numeracy and literacy, technologies of communication and abstract thinking skills (Lewin, 2007). Democratic participation, knowledge creation etc.

• Education increases peoples ability to add value (productivity)• “Modernising societies use educational access and attainment as a primary

mechanism to sort and select subsequent generations into different social and economic roles” (Lewin, 2007: 3) Distribution of income

Theory: Human Capital

Education increases peoples ability to add value (productivity) HCM

“The failure to treat human resources explicitly as a form of capital, as a produced means of production, as the product of investment, has fostered the retention of the classical notion of labour as a capacity to do manual work requiring little knowledge and skill, a capacity with which, according to this notion, labourers are endowed about equally. This notion of labour was wrong in the classical period and it is patently wrong now. Counting individuals who can and want to work and treating such a count as a measure of the quantity of an economic factor is no more meaningful than it would be to count the number of all manner of machines to determine their economic importance” (Schultz, 1961, p. 3).

Man Incr MP of L Incr profits Incr wageSkills & health

Theory: Sorting & signalling

• Education does not improve productivity or produce HC, instead acts as a signal of innate productivity/IQ/motivation.– Those with higher productivity/IQ/motivation will find it easier to get

higher levels of education than those with lower P/IQ/M

• Do we care if it is HCM or Signalling?– Yes! Implications for public investment.

Elusive equity

• Given the strong links between education and income, educational inequality is a fundamental determinant of income inequality.

• Clear need to understand SA educational inequality if we are to understand SA income inequality.

• High inequality + unemployment 2 of the most severe problems facing SA– Educational quality is intimately intertwined with both of these.

• “Education shall be free, compulsory, universal and equal for all children” (Freedom Charter)

Elusive equity

Type of education

Quality of education

Duration of

education

SA is one of the top 3 most

unequal countries in the world

Between 78% and 85% of

total inequality is explained by

wage inequality

• IQ• Motivation• Social

networks• Discrimination

Theory – education in SA

SES at birth

Cognitive ability in

early childhood

Educational performance

in early school years

Educational achievement

in matric

Ultimate educational attainment and quality

Labour market

performance

•Cost of tertiary education (explicit & implicit costs)•Parental & personal aspirations and perceptions•Society/culture

•Parental IQ (assortative mating)•Maternal health•Nutrition•Early cognitive stimulation: preschool (quantity & quality), home environment

•Average school SES•Language of learning & teaching (LOLT)•Teacher quality•Peer effects•Subject choice

•Type of tertiary education (quality) - institution and field of study•Demand and supply•Individual motivation

South Africa

(See Taylor, 2010)

For UK

Blacks Coloureds Indians Whites Total 0%

Pass Matric

Maths passes

Endorsements

HG Maths passes

A-aggregates

SES at birth

Cognitive ability in

early childhood

Educational performance

in early school years

Educational achievement

in matric

Ultimate educational attainment and quality

Labour market

performance

South Africa

High SES background

+ECDHigh quality primary school

High quality

secondaryschool

Low SES background

Low quality primary school

Low quality secondary

school

Unequal society

Semi-Skilled (31%)

Unskilled(19%)

Unemployed

(Broad - 33%)

Labour Market

High productivity jobs and incomes (17%)

• Mainly professional, managerial & skilled jobs

• Requires graduates, good quality matric or good vocational skills

• Historically mainly white

Low productivity jobs & incomes

• Often manual or low skill jobs

• Limited or low quality education

• Minimum wage can exceed productivity

University/FET

• Type of institution (FET or University)

• Quality of institution • Type of qualification

(diploma, degree etc.)• Field of study

(Engineering, Arts etc.)

• Vocational training• Affirmative action

Majority (80%)

Some motivated, lucky or talented students make the transition

Minority (20%)

- Big demand for good schools despite fees

- Some scholarships/bursaries

cf. Servaas van der Berg – QLFS 2011

Qualifications by age (birth cohort), 2011 (Van der Berg, 2013)

No schooling

Some primary

Primary completed

Some secondary schooling

Matric

Some tertiaryDegree

Expenditure on education2010/11

Total government expenditure (31% GDP in 2010/11 – R733.5bn)

80.50%

Other Government spendingEducation: Other currentEducation: CapitalEducation: Personnel78%

Government exp on education(19.5% of Gov exp: R143.1bn)

1) South Africa performs extremely poorly on local

and international assessments of

educational achievement

State of SA education since transition

• “Although 99.7% of South African children are in school…the outcomes in education are abysmal” (Manuel, 2011)

• “Without ambiguity or the possibility of misinterpretation, the pieces together reveal the predicament of South African primary education” (Fleisch, 2008: 2)

• “Our researchers found that what students know and can do is dismal” (Taylor & Vinjevold, 1999)

• “It is not an overstatement to say that South African education is in crisis.” (Van der Berg & Spaull, 2011)

Student performance 2003-2011

TIMSS (2003) PIRLS (2006) SACMEQ (2007) ANA (2011)

TIMSS 2003 (Gr8 Maths & Science)

• Out of 50 participating countries (including 6 African countries) SA came last

• Only 10% reached low international benchmark• No improvement from TIMSS 1999-TIMSS 2003

PIRLS 2006 (Gr 4/5 – Reading)

• Out of 45 participating countries SA came last• 87% of gr4 and 78% of Gr 5 learners deemed

to be “at serious risk of not learning to read”

SACMEQ III 2007 (Gr6 – Reading & Maths)• SA came 10/15 for reading and 8/15 for maths

behind countries such as Swaziland, Kenya and Tanzania

ANA 2011 (Gr 1-6 Reading & Maths)• Mean literacy score gr3: 35%• Mean numeracy score gr3: 28%• Mean literacy score gr6: 28%• Mean numeracy score gr6: 30%

TIMSS (2011) prePIRLS (2011)

TIMSS 2011 (Gr9 – Maths & Science)• SA has joint lowest performance of 42 countries• Improvement by 1.5 grade levels (2003-2011)• 76% of grade nine students in 2011 still had not

acquired a basic understanding about whole numbers, decimals, operations or basic graphs, and this is at the improved level of performance

Middle-income countries South Africa (Gr9)

200240280320360400440480520560

prePIRLS2011 (Gr 4 Reading)• 29% of SA Gr4 learners completely

illiterate (cannot decode text in any langauge)

• NSES 2007/8/9

• Systemic Evaluations 2007

• Matric exams

Quantifying learning deficits in Gr3

• Following Muralidharan & Zieleniak (2013) we classify students as performing at the grade-appropriate level if they obtain a mean score of 50% or higher on the full set of Grade 3 level questions.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Systemic 2007 Grade 3 mean score (%) on Grade 3 level items

Quintile 5 Quintile 1-4

Figure 1: Kernel density of mean Grade 3 performance on Grade 3 level items by quintiles of student socioeconomic status (Systemic Evaluation 2007)

(Grade-3-appropriate level)

16% Only the top 16% of grade 3 students are

performing at a Grade 3 level

NSES question 42NSES followed about 15000 students (266 schools) and tested them in Grade 3 (2007), Grade 4 (2008) and

Grade 5 (2009).

Grade 3 maths curriculum: “Can perform calculations using appropriate symbols to solve problems involving: division of at least 2-digit by 1-digit numbers”

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5Question 42

16% 19% 17% 17%

39%13% 10% 12% 12%

13% 14% 14% 15%

59% 57% 57% 55%

Still wrong in Gr5Correct in Gr5Correct in Gr4Correct in Gr3

Even at the end of Grade 5 most (55%+) quintile 1-4 students cannot answer this simple Grade-3-level problem.

“The powerful notions of ratio, rate and proportion are built upon the simpler concepts of whole number, multiplication and division, fraction and rational number, and are themselves the precursors to the development of yet more complex concepts such as triangle similarity, trigonometry, gradient and calculus” (Taylor & Reddi, 2013: 194)

(Spaull & Viljoen, forthcoming)

By Gr 3 all children should be able to read, Gr 4 children should be transitioning from “learning to read” to “reading to learn”

South Africa

Afrikaans

English

isiNdebele

isiXhosa

isiZulu

Sepedi

Sesotho

Setswana

siSwati

Tshivenda

Xitsonga

Did not reach Low International benchmark Intemediate International BenchmarkHigh International Benchmark Advanced International benchmark

Red sections here show the proportion of children that are completely illiterate in Grade 4, i.e. they cannot read in any language

http://web.up.ac.za/sitefiles/File/publications/2013/PIRLS_2011_Report_12_Dec.PDF

SACMEQ 2007 – Grade 6

South Africa

By this definition of functional illiteracy, if students are functionally illiterate they cannot read a short and simple text and extract meaning i.e. they cannot read for meaning

Grade 6 Literacy

SA Gr 6 Literacy Kenya Gr 6 Literacy25% 7%5%2%

46%49%

Public current expenditure

per pupil: $1225Public current expenditure

per pupil: $258Additional resources is not the answer

2) In large parts of the schooling system there is

little learning taking place

Rationale• Learning is a cumulative process that builds on itself i.e. it follows a

hierarchical structure (see Gagne, 1962; Aubrey, Dahl, & Godfrey, 2006; Aubrey & Godfrey, 2003; Aunio & Niemivirta, 2010).

• Mathematics, in particular, follows a coherent, explicit and systematically principled structure (vertically integrated subject – Bernstein, 1999)

• With respect to South Africa, Taylor et al. (2003, p. 129):“At the end of the Foundation Phase, learners have only a rudimentary grasp of the principles of reading and writing... it is very hard for learners to make up this cumulative deficit in later years...particularly in those subjects that...[have] vertical demarcation requirements (especially mathematics and science), the sequence, pacing, progression and coverage requirements of the high school curriculum make it virtually impossible for learners who have been disadvantaged by their early schooling to ‘catch-up’ later sufficiently to do themselves justice at the high school exit level.” (see also Schollar, 2008)

Insurmountable learning deficits: 0.3 SD

Gr3 Gr4 Gr5 Gr6 Gr7 Gr8 Gr9 Gr10 Gr11 Gr12(NSES 2007/8/9) (SACMEQ

2007)Projections (TIMSS

2011)Projections

South African Learning Trajectories by National Socioeconomic QuintilesBased on NSES (2007/8/9) for grades 3, 4 and 5, SACMEQ (2007) for grade 6 and

TIMSS (2011) for grade 9)

Quintile 1Quintile 2Quintile 3Quintile 4Quintile 5Q1-4 TrajectoryQ5 Trajectory

Actual grade (and data source)

(Spaull & Viljoen, Forthcoming)

What are the implications for matric and then the labour market?

• 550,000 students drop out before matric• 99% do not get a non-matric qualification (Gustafsson, 2011: p11)

• What happens to them? 50% youth unemployment.

Of 100 students that started school in 2002

Do not reach matricFail matric 2013Pass matric 2013Pass with university endorsement 2013

Dropout between Gr8 and Gr12

• Of 100 Gr8 quintile 1 students in 2009, 36 passed matric and 10 qualified for university• Of 100 Gr8 quintile 5 students in 2009, 68 passed matric and 39 qualified for university• “Contrary to what some would like the nation and the public to believe that our results hide inequalities, the facts

and evidence show that the two top provinces (Free State and North West) are rural and poor.” (Motshekga, 2014)

Quintile 1 Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Quintile 50%

70% 73% 75%82%

36%49%

37%42%

10% 15% 12% 17%

2013 Matric passes by quintileMatric pass rate by quintile Matric passes as % of Grade 8 (2009) Bachelor passes as % of Grade 8 (2009)

30No early cognitive stimulation

Weak culture of T&LLow curric

coverage

Low quality teachers

Low time-on-task

MATRIC

Pre-MATRIC

Matric pass rateNo. endorsements Subject choice

Throughput

Low accountability

50% dropout

HUGE learning deficits…

Quality?

What are the root causes of low and

unequal achievement?

Vested interests

Media sees only this

South African teacher content

knowledge

CAPACITY

Importance of basic content knowledge

• Mathematics teachers need “a thorough mastery of the mathematics in several grades beyond that which they expect to teach, as well as of the mathematics in earlier grades” (Conference Board of the Mathematical Sciences, 2001, ch.2).

• Carnoy & Chisholm’s (2008: p. 22) conceptual model distinguishes between basic content knowledge and higher level content knowledge.

Which content areas do South African teachers struggle

Maths teacher CK critically low

What do South African teachers know relative

to other teachers in Africa?

Series1

Mean Lower bound confidence interval (95%) Upper bound confidence interval (95%)

SACMEQ III (2007) Mathematics-teacher mathematics test-scores for SACMEQ countries and South African quintiles of school wealth (95% confidence interval incl.)

Rate of change example (Q17)SACMEQ III (2007) 401/498 Gr6 Mathematics teachers

SACMEQ Maths teacher test Q17

QuintileAvg

1 2 3 4 5Correct 23% 22% 38% 40% 74% 38%

Correct answer (7km):

38% of Gr 6 Maths teachers

2 education systems

Percentage of Grade 6 mathematics teachers with correct answer on Q17 of the SACMEQ III (2007) mathematics teacher test

ZAN MOZ ZAM LES MAL SOU NAM SWA BOT UGA TAN SEY ZIM KEN0%

17%24%

31% 31%35%

49% 49% 51%55%

62%71%

Conclusions

Ball et al (2008, p. 409): “Teachers who do not themselves know the subject well are not likely to have the knowledge they need to help students learn this content. At the same time just knowing a subject may well not be sufficient for teaching.”

3) In South Africa we have TWO public

schooling systems not one

BimodalityNSES Grade 4 (2008)

.02.02

0 20 40 60 80 100Numeracy score 2008

Ex-DET/ Homelands schools Historically white schools

Bimodality – indisputable fact0

0 20 40 60 80 100Literacy score (%)

Black WhiteIndian Asian

U-ANA 2011

Kernel Density of Literacy Score by Race (KZN)

0 200 400 600 800 1000Learner Reading Score

Poorest 25% Second poorest 25%Second wealthiest 25% Wealthiest 25%

0 200 400 600 800reading test score

African language schools English/Afrikaans schools

.02.02

0 20 40 60 80 100Numeracy score 2008

Ex-DET/Homelands schools Historically white schools

0 20 40 60 80 100Average school literacy score

Quintile 1 Quintile 2Quintile 3 Quintile 4Quintile 5

U-ANA 2011

Kernel Density of School Literacy by Quintile

PIRLS / TIMSS / SACMEQ / NSES / ANA / Matric… by Wealth / Language / Location / Dept…

In most government reports outcomes and inputs are not usually reported by quintile, only national averages

45Implications for reporting and modeling??

Dysfunctional Schools (75% of schools) Functional Schools (25% of schools)

Weak accountability Strong accountability

Incompetent school management Good school management

Lack of culture of learning, discipline and order Culture of learning, discipline and order

Inadequate LTSM Adequate LTSM

Weak teacher content knowledge Adequate teacher content knowledge

High teacher absenteeism (1 month/yr) Low teacher absenteeism (2 week/yr)

Slow curriculum coverage, little homework or testing Covers the curriculum, weekly homework, frequent testing

High repetition & dropout (Gr10-12) Low repetition & dropout (Gr10-12)

Extremely weak learning: most students fail standardised tests Adequate learner performance (primary and matric)

2 education systems

SOLUTION?

Accountability AND Capacity

Important distinctions

Improved student

outcomes

Increased resources “on-the-ground”

Often these 3 are spoken about interchangeably

Improved student

outcomes

Inefficiency / corruption

Improved student

outcomes

Lack of capacity

Improved student

outcomes

Lack of capacity

Lack of accountability

Accountability & Capacity

Accountability without capacity• “Accountability systems and incentive structures, no matter how well designed,

are only as effective as the capacity of the organization to respond. The purpose of an accountability system is to focus the resources and capacities of an organization towards a particular end. Accountability systems can’t mobilize resources that schools don’t have...the capacity to improve precedes and shapes schools’ responses to the external demands of accountability systems (Elmore, 2004b, p. 117).

• “If policy-makers rely on incentives for improving either a school or a student, then the question arises, incentives to do what? What exactly should educators in failing schools do tomorrow - that they do not do today - to produce more learning? What should a failing student do tomorrow that he or she is not doing today?” (Loveless, 2005, pp. 16, 26).

Capacity without accountability• “In the absence of accountability sub-systems, support measures are very much a

hit and miss affair. Accountability measures provide motivation for and direction to support measures, by identifying capacity shortcomings, establishing outcome targets, and setting in place incentives and sanctions which motivate and constrain teachers and managers throughout the system to apply the lessons learned on training courses in their daily work practices. Without these, support measures are like trying to push a piece of string: with the best will in the world, it has nowhere to go. Conversely, the performance gains achieved by accountability measures, however efficiently implemented, will reach a ceiling when the lack of leadership and technical skills on the part of managers, and curricular knowledge on the part of teachers, places a limit on improved performance. Thus, the third step in improving the quality of schooling is to provide targeted training programs to managers and teachers. To achieve optimal effects, these will need to connect up with and be steered by accountability measures” (Taylor, 2002, p. 17).

“Only when schools have both the incentive to respond to an accountability system as well as the capacity to do so will there be an improvement in student outcomes.” (p22)

Binding constraints approach

The binding constraints approach

• It is “based on the idea that not all constraints bind equally, and that a sensible and practical strategy consists of identifying the most serious constraint(s) at work” (Rodrik, 2009: 6)

• Hypothetical example…

“The left hand barrel has horizontal wooden slabs, while the right hand side barrel has vertical slabs. The volume in the first barrel depends on the sum of the width of all slabs. Increasing the width of any slab will increase the volume of the barrel. So a strategy on improving anything you can, when you can, while you can, would be effective. The volume in the second barrel is determined by the length of the shortest slab. Two implications of the second barrel are that the impact of a change in a slab on the volume of the barrel depends on whether it is the binding constraint or not. If not, the impact is zero. If it is the binding constraint, the impact will depend on the distance between the shortest slab and the next shortest slab” (Hausmann, Klinger, & Wagner, 2008, p. 17).

3 biggest challenges - SA

1.Failure to get the basics right• Children who cannot read, write and compute properly (Functionally

illiterate/innumerate) after 6 years of formal full-time schooling• Often teachers lack even the most basic knowledge

2.Equity in education• 2 education systems – dysfunctional system operates at bottom of African

countries, functional system operates at bottom of developed countries.• More resources is NOT the silver bullet – we are not using existing resources

3.Lack of accountability • Little accountability to parents in majority of school system• Little accountability between teachers and Department • Teacher unions abusing power and acting unprofessionally

Way forward?

1. Acknowledge the extent of the problem• Low quality education is one of the three largest crises facing our country (along with

HIV/AIDS and unemployment). Need the political will and public support for widespread reform.

2. Focus on the basics• Every child MUST master the basics of foundational numeracy and literacy these are the

building blocks of further education – weak foundations = recipe for disaster• Teachers need to be in school teaching (re-introduce inspectorate?)• Every teacher needs a minimum competency (basic) in the subjects they teach• Every child (teacher) needs access to adequate learning (teaching) materials• Use every school day and every school period – maximise instructional time

3. Increase information, accountability & transparency• At ALL levels – DBE, district, school, classroom, learner• Strengthen ANA• Set realistic goals for improvement and hold people accountable

When faced with an exceedingly low and unequal quality of education do we….

A) Increase accountability {US model}• Create a fool-proof highly specified, sequenced curriculum (CAPS/workbooks)• Measure learning better and more frequently (ANA)• Increase choice/information in a variety of ways

B) Improve the quality of teachers {Finnish model}• Attract better candidates into teaching degrees draw candidates from the top

(rather than the bottom) of the matric distribution• Increase the competence of existing teachers (Capacitation)• Long term endeavor which requires sustained, committed, strategic, thoughtful

leadership (something we don’t have)

C) All of the above {Utopian model}

• Perhaps A while we set out on the costly and difficult journey of B??

4 “Take-Home” pointsMany things we have not discussed – Grade-R/ECD, teacher unions, LOLT, teacher training (in- and pre-), RCTs etc.

1. South Africa performs extremely poorly on local and international assessments of educational achievement.

2. In large parts of the schooling system there is very little learning taking place.

3. In SA we have two public schooling systems not one.

4. Strategies for improvement need to focus on 1) accountability, 2) capacity, 3) alignment.

References and further reading• Spaull, N. 2014. Accountability in South African Education. Ch4 in “Transformation Audit 2013: Confronting Exclusion” Institute for Justice and Reconciliation. Cape

Town.• Spaull, N. 2013. South Africa’s Education Crisis: The Quality of Education in South Africa 1995-2011. Centre for Development and Enterprise.• Spaull, N. 2012. SACMEQ at a Glance for 10 African countries. 2 page research note per country.• Spaull, N. 2013. Poverty & Privilege: Primary School Inequality in South Africa. International Journal of Educational Development. 33 (2013) pp. 436-447 (WP here)• Carnoy, M., Chisholm, L., & Chilisa, B. (2012). The Low Achievement Trap: Comparing Schooling in Botswana and South Africa. Cape Town: HSRC Press.• Donalson, A. (1992). Content, Quality and Flexibility: The Economics of Education System Change. Spotlight 5/92. Johannesburg: South African Institute of Race

Relations.• Elmore, R. (2004a). Agency, Reciprocity, and Accountability in Democratic Education. Cambridge, MA: Consortium for Policy Research in Education.• Elmore, R. (2008). Leadership as the practice of improvement. In OECD, Improving School Leadership. Volume 2: Case Studies on System Leadership (pp. 37-67). Paris:

OECD Publishing.• Fiske, E., & Ladd, H. (2004). Elusive Equity: Education Reform in Post-apartheid South Africa. Washington: Brookings Institution Press / HSRC Press.• Fleisch, B. (2008). Primary Education in Crisis: Why South African schoolchildren underachieve in reading and mathematics. Cape Town. : Juta & Co.• Hoadley, U. (2010). What doe we know about teaching and learning in primary schools in South Africa? A review of the classroom-based research literature. Report for

the Grade 3 Improvement project of the University of Stellenbosch. Western Cape Education Department.• Taylor, N., Muller, J., & Vinjevold, P. (2003). Getting Schools Working. Cape Town: Pearson Education.• Van der Berg, S. (2007). Apartheid’s Enduring Legacy: Inequalities in Education. Journal of African Economies, 16(5), 849-880.• Van der Berg, S. (2008). How effective are poor schools? Poverty and educational outcomes in South Africa. Centre for European, Governance and Economic

Development Research (CEGE) Discussion Papers 69.• Van der Berg, S., Burger, C., Burger, R., de Vos, M., du Rand, G., Gustafsson, M., Shepherd, D., Spaull, N., Taylor, S., van Broekhuizen, H., and von Fintel, D. (2011).

Low quality education as a poverty trap. Stellenbosch: University of Stellenbosch, Department of Economics. Research report for the PSPPD project for Presidency.• Shalem, Y. (2003). Do we have a theory of change? Calling change models to account. Perspectives in Education, 21(1), 29-49.• Background to SACMEQ:• Hungi, N., Makuwa, D., Ross, K., Saito, M., Dolata, S., van Capelle, F., et al. (2011).

SACMEQ III Project Results: Levels and Trends in School Resources among SACMEQ School Systems. Paris: Southern and Eastern Africa Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality.

• Ross, K., Saito, M., Dolata, S., Ikeda, M., Zuze, L., Murimba, S., et al. (2005). The Conduct of the SACMEQ III Project. In E. Onsomu, J. Nzomo, & C. Obiero, The SACMEQ II Project in Kenya: A Study of the Conditions of Schooling and the Quality of Education. Harare: SACMEQ.

• Murimba, S. (2005) SACMEQ Mission, Approach and Projects. Prospects, vol. XXXV, no. 1, March 2005

Thank youComments & Questions?

This presentation & others are available online at:www.nicspaull.com/research

NicholasSpaull@gmail.com

Insurmountable learning deficits: 0.3 SD

Gr3 Gr4 Gr5 Gr6 Gr7 Gr8 Gr9 Gr10 Gr11 Gr12(NSES 2007/8/9) (SACMEQ

2007)Projections (TIMSS

2011)Projections

South African Learning Trajectories by National Socioeconomic QuintilesBased on NSES (2007/8/9) for grades 3, 4 and 5, SACMEQ (2007) for grade 6 and

TIMSS (2011) for grade 9)

Quintile 1Quintile 2Quintile 3Quintile 4Quintile 5Q1-4 TrajectoryQ5 Trajectory

Actual grade (and data source)

Decreasing proportion of matrics taking mathematics

Matric 2008 (Gr 10 2006)

Matric 2009 (Gr 10 2007)

Matric 2010 (Gr 10 2008)

Matric 2011 (Gr 10 2009)

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

60%Grade 10 (2 years earlier) Grade 12 Those who pass matric

Pass matric with maths Proportion of matrics taking mathematics

rics (

Numbers wrote maths

Numbers passed maths Maths pass rate Proportion taking

mathsProportion passing maths

2008 298 821 136 503 45,7% 56,1% 25,6%2009 290 407 133 505 46,0% 52,6% 24,2%2010 263 034 124 749 47,4% 48,8% 23,2%2011 224 635 104 033 46,3% 45,3% 21,0%

Table 4: Mathematics outputs since 2008 (Source: Taylor, 2012, p. 4)

Teacher Content Knowledge• Conference Board of the Mathematical Sciences (2001, ch.2) recommends that

mathematics teachers need: – “A thorough mastery of the mathematics in several grades beyond that which

they expect to teach, as well as of the mathematics in earlier grades” (2001 report ‘The Mathematical Education of Teachers’)

• Ball et al (2008, p. 409) – “Teachers who do not themselves know the subject well are not likely to have

the knowledge they need to help students learn this content. At the same time just knowing a subject may well not be sufficient for teaching.”

• Shulman (1986, p. 9)– “We expect that the subject matter content understanding of the teacher be at

least equal to that of his or her lay colleague, the mere subject matter major”

South Africa specifically…

• Taylor & Vinjevold’s (1999, p. 230) conclusion in their book “Getting Learning Right” is particularly explicit:

• “The most definite point of convergence across the [President’s Education Initiative] studies is the conclusion that teachers’ poor conceptual knowledge of the subjects they are teaching is a fundamental constraint on the quality of teaching and learning activities, and consequently on the quality of learning outcomes.”

Carnoy & Chisholm (2008: p. 22) conceptual framework

Teacher knowledge

Student understands & can calculate

fractions

PCK – how to teach

fractions“For every increment of performance I demand from you, I have an equal responsibility to provide you with the capacity to meet that expectation. Likewise, for every investment you make in my skill and knowledge, I have a reciprocal responsibility to demonstrate some new increment in performance”

(Elmore, 2004b, p. 93).

Teachers cannot teach what they do not know.

Demonizing teachers is popular, but unhelpful

Distribution of mathematics teacher CK by geographical location

South Africa is the only country (amongst SACMEQ countries) where rural mathematics teachers know statistically significantly less than urban teachers.

Series1

Rural lower bound confidence interval (95%) Rural upper bound confidence interval (95%)Urban lower bound confidence interval (95%) Urban upper bound confidence interval (95%)

Distribution of mathematics teacher CK by school SES quintile

Series1

Mean Lower bound confidence interval (95%)Upper bound confidence interval (95%)

Grade 5 (2009).

Grade 3 maths curriculum: “Can perform calculations using approp symbols to solve problems involving: MULTIPLICATION of at least 2-digit by 1-digit numbers”

23% 29% 25% 29%

54%22%

18% 20%19%

17% 17% 18%18%

11%38% 37% 37% 33%

At the end of Grade 5 more than a third of quintile 1-4 students cannot answer this simple Grade-3-level problem.

Solutions?

Possible solution…• The DBE cannot afford to be idealistic in its implementation of

teacher training and testing– Aspirational planning approach: All primary school mathematics teachers

should be able to pass the matric mathematics exam (benchmark = desirable teacher CK)

– Realistic approach: (e.g.) minimum proficiency benchmark where teachers have to achieve at least 90% in the ANA of the grades in which they teach, and 70% in Grade 9 ANA

(benchmark = basic teacher CK)

• First we need to figure out what works!• Pilot the system with one district. Imperative to evaluate which teacher

training option (of hundreds) works best in urban/rural for example. Rigorous impact evaluations are needed before selecting a program and then rolling it out

• Tests are primarily for diagnostic purposes not punitive purposes

Accountability stages...

• SA is a few decades behind many OECD countries. Predictable outcomes as we move from stage to stage. Loveless (2005: 7) explains the historical sequence of accountability movements for students – similar movements for teachers?

– Stage 1 – Setting standards (defining what students should learn),

– CAPS– Stage 2 - Measuring achievement

(testing to see what students have learned),– ANA

– Stage 3 - Holding educators & students accountable (making results count).

– Western Cape performance agreements?

3) Holding accountabl

2) Measurin

g achievem

1) Setting

standards

Stages in accountability movements:

TRAINING

“For every increment of performance I demand from you, I have an equal responsibility to provide you with the capacity to meet that expectation. Likewise, for every investment you make in my skill and knowledge, I have a reciprocal responsibility to demonstrate some new increment in performance” (Elmore, 2004b, p. 93).

When faced with an exceedingly low and unequal quality of education do we….

A) Increase accountability {US model}• Create a fool-proof highly specified, sequenced curriculum (CAPS/workbooks)• Measure learning better and more frequently (ANA)• Increase choice/information in a variety of ways

B) Improve the quality of teachers {Finnish model}• Attract better candidates into teaching degrees draw candidates from the top

(rather than the bottom) of the matric distribution• Increase the competence of existing teachers (Capacitation)• Long term endeavor which requires sustained, committed, strategic, thoughtful

leadership (something we don’t have)

C) All of the above {Utopian model}

• Perhaps A while we set out on the costly and difficult journey of B??

Way forward?

1. Acknowledge the extent of the problem• Low quality education is one of the three largest crises facing our country (along with

HIV/AIDS and unemployment). Need the political will and public support for widespread reform.

2. Focus on the basics• Every child MUST master the basics of foundational numeracy and literacy these are the

building blocks of further education – weak foundations = recipe for disaster• Teachers need to be in school teaching (re-introduce inspectorate?)• Every teacher needs a minimum competency (basic) in the subjects they teach• Every child (teacher) needs access to adequate learning (teaching) materials• Use every school day and every school period – maximise instructional time

3. Increase information, accountability & transparency• At ALL levels – DBE, district, school, classroom, learner• Strengthen ANA• Set realistic goals for improvement and hold people accountable

3 biggest challenges - SA

1.Failure to get the basics right• Children who cannot read, write and compute properly (Functionally

illiterate/innumerate) after 6 years of formal full-time schooling• Often teachers lack even the most basic knowledge

2.Equity in education• 2 education systems – dysfunctional system operates at bottom of African

countries, functional system operates at bottom of developed countries.• More resources is NOT the silver bullet – we are not using existing resources

3.Lack of accountability • Little accountability to parents in majority of school system• Little accountability between teachers and Department • Teacher unions abusing power and acting unprofessionally

Conclusion1. Ensuring that public funding is actually

pro-poor and also that it actually reaches the poor.

2. Understanding whether the motivation is for human dignity reasons or improving learning outcomes.

3. Ensuring that additional resources are allocated based on evidence rather than anecdote.

4. The need for BOTH accountability AND capacity.

Binding constraints approach

“The left hand barrel has horizontal wooden slabs, while the right hand side barrel has vertical slabs. The volume in the first barrel depends on the sum of the width of all slabs. Increasing the width of any slab will increase the volume of the barrel. So a strategy on improving anything you can, when you can, while you can, would be effective. The volume in the second barrel is determined by the length of the shortest slab. Two implications of the second barrel are that the impact of a change in a slab on the volume of the barrel depends on whether it is the binding constraint or not. If not, the impact is zero. If it is the binding constraint, the impact will depend on the distance between the shortest slab and the next shortest slab” (Hausmann, Klinger, & Wagner, 2008, p. 17).

Grade 5 (2009).

Grade 3 maths curriculum: “Can perform calculations using approp symbols to solve problems involving: MULTIPLICATION of at least 2-digit by 1-digit numbers”

Even at the end of Grade 5 more than a third of quintile 1-4 students cannot answer this simple Grade-3-level problem.

“The powerful notions of ratio, rate and proportion are built upon the simpler concepts of whole number, multiplication and division, fraction and rational number, and are themselves the precursors to the development of yet more complex concepts such as triangle similarity, trigonometry, gradient and calculus” (Taylor & Reddi, 2013: 194)

23% 29% 25% 29%

54%22%

18% 20%19%

17% 17% 18%18%

11%38% 37% 37% 33%

(Spaull & Viljoen, forthcoming)

An Overview of South Africa’s Schooling System

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