Post on 27-Jul-2018
Airbus Global Market forecast: Impact on Air Traffic Management
March 2014
Marc Hamy Head of Air Transport Affairs
Airbus SAS Vice President
Airbus Global Market Forecast
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
World real GDP
World passenger traffic (ASKs)
Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth
+7.2%
February 2014 Passenger Traffic
Percent growth (year-over-year)
March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: IHS Global Insight, OAG, Airbus
World real GDP and Passenger traffic
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Emerging markets are leading traffic growth
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N
+4.2%
Western Europe Traffic
+3.5%
US Traffic
Percent change (year-over-year)
+12.4%
Emerging Markets Traffic
Source: OAG, Airbus
ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution
March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Middle Class will probably double increasing the number of people having access to Air Transport
675 698 675 265 262 253
856
2,038
3,526
432
578
757
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2012 2022 2032
Other Asia-Pacific North America Europe & CIS 3,576
2,228
5,211 x2.4
World Population
% of world population
8,400 7,800 7,100 62% 46% 32%
Source: Kharas and Gertz (OECD), Airbus Definition: Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)
Global Middle Class, millions of people
March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032
Industry to double as new markets are tapped
Source: ICAO, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts
Airbus GMF 2013 ICAO total traffic
World annual RPK (trillion)
2012-2020 5.2% p.a.
2022-2032 4.4% p.a.
Annual traffic growth to 2020
5.2% Air traffic has doubled every 15 years
March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Asia-Pacific
Europe
North America
Middle East
Latin America
CIS
Africa
Asia-Pacific to lead soon
2012 traffic 2012-2032 traffic 29%
26%
25%
8%
5%
4%
3%
5.5%
3.8%
3.0%
7.1%
6.0%
5.8%
5.1%
% of 2012 world RPK
20-year growth
34%
22%
18%
12%
7%
4%
3%
% of 2032 world RPK
RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)
Source: Airbus GMF
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
In 2012, there were 100 cities with more than one million monthly passengers Cities with more than 1 million monthly O&D passengers, 2012
Source: SABRE, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts
March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
In 2032, there will be 230 cities with more than one million monthly pax… Cities with more than 1 million monthly O&D passengers, 2032
Source: SABRE, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts
March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013
Impact on ATM of the forecasted air traffic growth
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Growth can be accommodated by growth in frequency (more flights), or in capacity (larger aircraft) or both.
Frequency
Capacity Bubbles proportional to ASKs
Step 1: increase in Frequency only
Step 2: increase in both Frequency & Capacity
Step 3: increase in Capacity only (larger aircraft)
Maximum ATM/airport
service level
Satisfactory service level
New Route opening
Growth accommodation in Airbus forecasts
March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013
Source: Airbus Market Research and Forecasts
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
ATM has to address first frequency growth
Frequency
Capacity Bubbles proportional to ASKs
Step 1: improve infrastructure: New airports; New Runways
Step 2: Improve airspace management New routes; Better procedures; Improved ATM system.
Step 3: Better use of existing capacities to reduce delays: - ATFM; - A.CDM.
Traffic saturation
Airspace congestion
Airport congestion
Progressive capacity growth through improved infrastructure and ATM performance enhancement
March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
ATM has also to address better flight efficiency by delivering better performance through ATM Modernization program
Frequency
Capacity Bubbles proportional to ASKs
Step 1: improve infrastructure: New airports; New Runways
Step 2: Improve airspace management New routes; Better procedures; Improved ATM system.
Step 3: Better use of existing capacities to reduce delays: - ATFM; - A.CDM.
Traffic saturation
Airspace congestion
Airport congestion
Improved ATM performance will deliver more capacity but also better efficiency
March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013
Step 4: ATM modernization programmes to further enhance capacity and improve efficiency
More Capacity
More Frequency
Or Better
Efficiency
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
Alleviating difficulties to create new opportunities
January 2014 A330 Regional- The Ideal Solution for the Fast Growing Markets ACCM 014/14
56 Million Jobs supported by Aviation (ATAG figures)
$ 2 Trillion Aviation’s global Economic impact
3,5% of global GDP
35000 City pairs served
2,8 Billion passengers Air Traffic congestion
Missed connections or flights cancelled
Over costs
Delays
More CO² Emissions
More Growth creating New Opportunities For the future
Difficulties
Today situation
Tomorrow situation
Opportunities
Conclusions
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
ATM Modernization key issues March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013
Allow more and more people to travel in the world by providing quickly more capacity, especially in fast growing countries
Allow better flight performance and reduce costs and delays, especially in countries already having a high density air traffic.
Allow a sustainable development of air traffic by contributing to lower CO² emissions and noise reduction.
© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.
The need to coordinate the efforts from board and ground March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013
Improved aircraft performance and capacity
Improved ATM and Airport performance and capacity
Better procedures and new operational concepts
Better airlines operations and increased capacity
Better satisfaction of passengers demand Better environment
Sustainable development of Air Transport
Thank you for your attention