AICPA Business and Industry Economic Outlook Survey...Survey Highlights 3 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook...

Post on 30-Sep-2020

3 views 0 download

Transcript of AICPA Business and Industry Economic Outlook Survey...Survey Highlights 3 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook...

AICPA Business and Industry Economic Outlook Survey

Detailed Survey Results: 3Q 2020Management Accounting & Finance

Survey Background

• Conducted between July 28-August 18, 2020

• Quarterly survey

• CPA decision makers

– primarily CFO’s, CEOs and Controllers

• AICPA members in Business & Industry

• 1,067 qualified responses

3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Survey Highlights

3 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Overall Index improves from 38 to a level of 54

▪ US Economy optimism up from 29 to 37

▪ All components up including US Economic and Organization Optimism

▪ Expansion plans, revenue and profit expectations all trending upward

CPAOI

Optimism about the economy, organization prospects and expansion plans rebound

Economy

and

Organization

Expansion plans rebound from only 24% to now 43% having plans to expand

Overall levels of employment are now expected to be flat, but key sectors are expected to

improve, and hiring plans for all sizes of business rebounded from Q2 levels

Domestic economic conditions continued as the top challenge, followed by domestic

political leadership which jumped four spots to the #2 position

Expansion

Employment

Challenges

▪ U.S. Economy rebounds from 20% in Q2 to 24% in Q3

▪ Organization optimism rebounds 11 points to 41%.

▪ Global economy outlook also improves slightly from 11% to 17% optimistic

CPA Outlook Index (CPAOI)

4 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

The CPA Outlook Index is the composite of the

following nine indicators at equal weights:

• U.S. Economy Optimism - Respondent optimism about the U.S. economy

• Organization Optimism - Respondent optimism about prospects for their own

organization

• Expansion Plans - Respondent expectations of whether their business will expand

over the next 12 months

• Revenue - Expectations for increases or decreases in revenue over the next 12

months

• Profits - Expectations for increases or decreases in profits over the next 12 months

• Employment - Expectations for increases or decreases in headcount over the next

12 months

• IT Spending - Plans for IT spending over the next 12 months

• Other Capital Spending - Plans for capital spending over the next 12 months

• Training & Development - Plans for spending on employee training and development

over the next 12 months

The CPA Outlook Index is

a robust measure of

sentiment about the U.S.

economy that is supported

by the unique insight and

knowledge that CEOs,

CFOs, Controllers, and

other CPA executives

have about the prospects

for their own

organizations, their

expectations for revenues

and profits, and their plans

for spending and

employment.

CPA Outlook Index (CPAOI)

5 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

A reading above

50 indicates a

generally

positive outlook

with increasing

activity.

A reading below

50 indicates a

generally

negative outlook

with decreasing

activity. 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

CPA OutlookIndex

71 69 63 68 69 74 76 75 77 79 81 79 79 76 76 75 72 72 76 38 54

71 69

6368 69

74 76 75 77 79 81 79 7976 76 75

72 7276

38

54

6

CPA Outlook Index (CPAOI)

3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Component 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 ∆Q to Q ∆Y to Y

U.S. Economic Optimism 60 64 74 29 37 08 23

Organization Optimism 72 73 78 46 58 12 14

Expansion Plans 72 71 75 33 54 21 18

Revenue 76 76 81 27 51 24 25

Profits 70 71 73 26 47 21 23

Employment 68 70 71 38 54 16 14

IT Spending 80 80 81 59 71 12 09

Other Capital Spending 74 71 74 43 56 13 18

Training & Development 72 72 73 45 56 11 16

Total CPAOI 72 72 76 38 54 16 18

7

CPA Outlook Index (CPAOI) vs. GDP

2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

CPA OutlookIndex

75 72 72 72 38 54

Changein GDP

2.0% 2.1% 2.1% -5.0% -32.9%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

GDP Growth

CPA Outlook Index

- 32.9 %

3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

8 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Optimism for U.S. economy gains 4 points

Pessimists obviously cite the COVID-19 disruption impact on the economy, consumer demand and

government spending

Optimists cite the possibility of pent-up demand and lower energy costs, along with resilience and

innovation

Organization optimism recovers 11 points from 30% in Q2 to 41% in Q3

Expansion plans rebound from only 24% of respondents having plans to expand their business in

Q2 to now 43% with plans to expand.

Of the balance, 23% expect to stay the same, 25% expect to contract a little, now only 9% expect to

contract a lot

U.S. Economy, Organization and Inflation

24%

41%

20%

Concern about inflation remained at 20%; concern about deflation dropped to11%

Concern about labor costs as most significant risk increased to 37%

Raw materials cost concerns ticked up to 36%.

Interest rate concerns eased from 13% to 12%.

Energy cost concerns remained constant at 6%

Food cost concerns as most significant eased from 12% in Q2 to 5% in Q3

9

Optimism & Expansion

The economic

outlook for the

U.S. economy,

your organization,

and the expansion

plans over the

next 12 months

3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

U.S. 64% 74% 79% 74% 69% 57% 57% 57% 42% 50% 61% 20% 24%

Organization 66% 70% 71% 70% 69% 68% 65% 62% 58% 58% 66% 30% 41%

Expansion 65% 71% 72% 70% 70% 67% 66% 63% 61% 59% 64% 24% 43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

10 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Inflation or Deflation?

For your business, over the next 6 months, which are you more concerned about? Inflation or deflation?

26%27%

49%47% 47%

49%

34%

29%

23%

19% 17%20% 20%

5% 5%3% 2% 2% 2%

6% 5%

11%8%

7%

18%

11%

3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q200%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Inflation Deflation

11 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Inflationary Risk Factors

Which of the following potential inflationary factors represents the most significant risk to your business?

Food costsEnergycosts

Raw materialcosts

Labor costsInterestrates

Other

3Q19 2% 5% 32% 37% 20% 4%

4Q19 3% 5% 26% 47% 13% 7%

1Q20 1% 6% 26% 46% 12% 9%

2Q20 12% 6% 28% 29% 13% 12%

3Q20 5% 6% 36% 37% 12% 5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Key Performance Indicator Summary

12

Revenues and Profits Revenue and profit improve but still expected to decline

Expected revenue for coming twelve months improve from an expected decrease of -5.0% in Q2 to an expected decrease on only 0.6% going forward from Q3

Profit projections also improved from -5.5% in Q2 to -1.2% in Q3

Hiring and Employment Headcount plans also show some recovery

Anticipated rate of headcount change improved from -1.1% in Q2 to 0.0% in Q3

Salary and benefit expected costs are now expected to increase at a rate of 0.9% going forward from Q3 rather than the expected Q2 decrease of -0.7%

Healthcare costs are now expected to increase at a rate of 4.3%, up from an expected rate of increase of 3.5% in Q2

Spending PlansSpending plans improve

Expected rate of increase for IT spending improves to 1.9%, up from only 0.4%

Other capital spending now projected to increase by 0.1%, up from -2.0% expected in Q2

Training spend now expected to decline by only -0.2%, which us up from -1.7% last quarter

Marketing spending cuts ease from -2.4% to -0.5%

R&D spending plans turn positive from -1.6% to 0.1%

3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

13 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Key Performance Indicators

Thinking about

the coming 12

months, please

comment on the

probable

change for your

organization for

each of the

following key

performance

indicators

3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Revenue 2.9% 3.6% 4.3% 3.9% 4.3% 4.8% 5.0% 4.8% 5.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 3.5% 3.4% 4.3% -5.0% -0.6%

Profit 2.3% 3.1% 3.5% 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% 4.4% 4.0% 4.3% 3.4% 3.6% 3.1% 2.8% 2.7% 3.3% -5.5% -1.2%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Expected Growth in Revenue and Profits

14 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Key Performance Indicators

Thinking about

the coming 12

months, please

comment on

the probable

change for your

organization for

each of the

following key

performance

indicators

3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Employees 1.3% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 2.0% -1.1% 0.0%

Salary &Benefits

2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% -0.7% 0.9%

Healthcare 5.6% 6.1% 5.6% 5.5% 6.3% 5.9% 5.6% 5.9% 5.7% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% 3.5% 4.3%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Employees, Salary & Benefits, and Healthcare Costs

15 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Key Performance Indicators

Thinking about

the coming 12

months, please

comment on

the probable

change for your

organization for

each of the

following key

performance

indicators

Pricing & Other Costs Average Change Expected

3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Prices Charged 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 0.2% 0.9%

Input Prices 1.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 1.4% 1.8%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

16 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Key Performance Indicators

Thinking about

the coming 12

months, please

comment on

the probable

change for your

organization for

each of the

following key

performance

indicators

Spending Plans - IT, Other Capital & Training

3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

IT 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 0.4% 1.9%

Other Capital 2.4% 2.7% 2.6% 2.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 2.9% -2.0% 0.1%

Training 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% -1.7% -0.2%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

17 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Key Performance Indicators

Thinking about

the coming 12

months, please

comment on

the probable

change for your

organization for

each of the

following key

performance

indicators

Spending Plans Marketing & R&D

3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Marketing 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 2.0% 1.8% -2.4% -0.5%

R&D 1.1% 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% -1.6% 0.1%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

18 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Hiring Plans Summary

Have right number of employees

Maintained Q2 levels

Have an excess of employees

Down 9% from Q2

Have too few, but hesitating to hire

Up 1 point from Q2

Have too few and planning to hire

Up 6 points from Q2

14%

55%

16%

13%

Remain relatively strong

19 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Hiring PlansOverall staff situation relative to your needs

Given current

conditions, how

would you

characterize

your overall

staffing situation

relative to your

needs

(i.e., do you have

excess capacity or

are employees

stretched)?

We have an excessnumber ofemployees

We haveapproximately the

appropriate numberof employees

We have too fewemployees, but are

hesitating to hire

We have too fewemployees and are

planning to hireOther

3Q19 9% 51% 13% 25% 2%

4Q19 8% 46% 15% 28% 3%

1Q20 7% 51% 14% 26% 2%

2Q20 25% 51% 13% 7% 3%

3Q20 16% 55% 14% 13% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

20 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Challenges Facing Organizations

Indication of the

top three

challenges for

your organization

• Domestic economic conditions remained as #1 challenge

• Domestic political leadership jumps up 4 spots to #2

• Employee and benefit costs jumps 6 spots - now at #3

• Availability of skilled personnel jumps up 4 spots to #4

• Stagnant/declining markets drop 3 spots to the #5 spot

• Regulatory requirements drop 1 spot to #6

• Global economic conditions drop 3 spots to #7

• Changing customer preferences up 2 spots to 8th place

• Domestic competition returns from 1Q20 spot 2 to #9

• Materials/supplies/equipment costs returns to the 10th position after

falling off in 1Q20

10Top

Challenges YTD

21 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

10Top

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

1 Availability of skilled personnel Availability of skilled personnel Availability of skilled personnel Domestic economic conditions Domestic economic conditions

2 Domestic economic conditions Domestic economic conditions Domestic competition Stagnant/declining markets Domestic political leadership

3 Domestic political leadership Domestic competition Domestic economic conditions Liquidity Employee and benefits costs

4 Domestic competition Employee and benefits costs Domestic political leadership Global economic conditions Availability of skilled personnel

5 Employee and benefits costsRegulatory

requirements/changes

Regulatory

requirements/changes

Regulatory

requirements/changesStagnant/declining markets

6Regulatory

requirements/changesDomestic political leadership Employee and benefits costs Domestic political leadership

Regulatory

requirements/changes

7 Staff Turnover Staff TurnoverDeveloping new

products/services/markets

Financing (access/cost of

capital)Global economic conditions

8 Stagnant/declining marketsDeveloping new

products/services/marketsStaff Turnover Availability of skilled personnel

Changing customer

preferences

9Developing new

products/services/marketsStagnant/declining markets Global economic conditions Employee and benefits costs Domestic competition

10Changing customer

preferences

Changing customer

preferences

Materials/supplies/

equipment costs

Changing customer

preferences

Materials/supplies/

equipment costs

Industry, Region and Business-size Outlook

22

Retail and wholesale trade recover

Manufacturing improves;

Technology also bounces back

Construction rebounds;

Real estate declines further

Retail trade recovered from only 29% optimistic to 48% optimistic in Q3

Wholesale trade also rebounded to 43% optimistic

Hiring for retail also recovered from an expected decrease of 4.12% to an expected increase of 1.0% going forward from Q3

Manufacturing hiring plans also improved to an expected increase of 0.7% from a decrease of 2.0% in Q1

Technology hiring, which had been projected to decline by 1.2%, is now expected to increase by 1.5%

Construction optimism rebounded from only 29% in Q2 to 49% optimistic in Q3

Real Estate and Property declined another 7 points, to now only 31% optimistic

Construction hiring plans which had also been expected to decline by 1.3%, are now expected in increase 0.10%

Real Estate hiring is expected to decline by 0.1%

Manufacturing optimism improved from only 31% to 54% optimistic

Technology bounces back from only 35% in Q2 to 55% optimistic in Q3

3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Industry, Region and Business-size Outlook

23

Finance & Insurance improves; Professional Services also rebounds

Healthcare providers optimism recovers;

Healthcare –others optimism and hiring both decline

Finance and Insurance optimism improves from 40% to 49% optimistic

Professional Services rebounded from only 27% optimistic in Q1 to now 40% optimistic

Finance and insurance hiring is expected to improve from -0.6% in Q2 to 0.6% in Q3

Professional services hiring is now expected to be flat, after an expected decrease of 2.1% in Q2

Healthcare provider optimism recovered from only 24% optimistic in Q2 to 39% in Q3

Healthcare–other declined from 48% optimistic in Q2 to 38% in Q3

Expected hiring by Healthcare providers, which had been expected to decline by 1.8% is now expected to increase by 0.6%

Healthcare – other hiring eased from an expected increase of 1.8% in Q2 to 0.5% in Q3

3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Organization Optimism by Industry

24

61%

69%

56%

40%

54%

63%57%

29%

48%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Retail Trade

78%

67%

57% 57%51%

55%59%

31%

54%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Manufacturing

60%

82%

65%70%

75%

48%

76%

35%

55%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Technology

63% 63%

89%

75%

52%58%

68%

26%26% 43%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20

Wholesale Trade

3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Organization Optimism by Industry

25

66%

75%

64%67%

52%

69% 68%

38%31%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Real Estate & Property

69% 69%74%

83%76%

66%

83%

29%

49%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Construction

84%79%

65%61%

67%61%

68%

27%

40%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Professional Service

78%72% 74%

77%

67%

75% 74%

40%

49%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Finance & Insurance

3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Organization Optimism by Industry

26

67% 65%

56% 57%

42%

60%

71%

48%

38%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Health Care - Other

61% 60%

51%

63%58%

67%

54%

24%

39%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Health Care Provider

2Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

27 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Expected Employment Change by Industry

Thinking about the coming 12 months, please comment on the

probable change for your organization for number of employees

-5.0

-3.9

-3.2

-2.1

-0.4

-2.7

-1.2

-2.1

-1.3

1.8

-1.8

-0.6

-2.0

-4.1

-1.0

-3.6

-2.3

-0.8

-0.8

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.5

-6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0

Q3 Q2

Technology

Retail Trade

Manufacturing

Finance and Insurance

Healthcare - providers (hospitals, nursing homes, etc.)

Healthcare - other (pharma, device suppliers, etc.)

Construction

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Real Estate & Property

Wholesale Trade

Banking

Not for Profit

Transportation, Distribution and Warehousing

Mining, Natural Resources and Oil & Gas

Hospitality and Food Services (incl. travel and leisure)

28 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Industry, Region and Business-size Outlook

Midwest – optimism improved from 27% to 37%

West – optimism improved 12 points from 30% to 42%

South – improved from 34% to 46%

Northeast – improved from only 26% optimistic in Q2 to 38% in Q3

For employers with > $1 billion in revenues, 20% now have excess employees, while 34% have too few. Of those with too few employees, 19% remain hesitant while 15% are planning to hire.

Of those in the $100 million to $1 billion category, 29% say they have too few employees; 18% are hesitant; while 11% are hiring.

In the $10 - $100 million range, 26% now have too few employees; of those with too few, 12% are hesitant; 14% are hiring.

Of employers with revenues < $10 million 25% have too few employees; 14% are hesitant; 11% are hiring.

Expectations for expansion by businesses with revenues < $10 million improved 16 points to 40%. Plans for companies in the $10 - $100 million category improved 17 points to 41%. Companies in the $100 million to $1 billion range recovered 25 points to 48%; those with revenues in excess of $1 billion gained 21 points to 44% having plans to expand.

Regional optimism shows big drops across regions

Employment projections by business size and expansion plans by size also reflecting lower optimism

29 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Organization Optimism by Region

The rating that

best describes

your view for the

economic outlook

for your own

organization for

the next 12

months.

3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

Midwest 54% 58% 67% 27% 37%

West 60% 63% 67% 30% 42%

South 61% 61% 68% 34% 46%

Northeast 59% 55% 61% 26% 38%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

30 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Expansion Plans by Business Size

Indicate whether

you expect your

business to

expand or

contract over the

next 12 months

3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20

< $10 million 63% 64% 60% 63% 62% 52% 62% 24% 40%

$10 to <$100 million 70% 70% 67% 66% 64% 59% 64% 24% 41%

$100 million to <$1 billion 73% 62% 67% 63% 54% 62% 65% 23% 48%

> $1 billion 74% 71% 66% 64% 63% 68% 63% 26% 44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

35% of all businesses expect to expand a little in

the next twelve months

8% expect to expand a lot

23% expect to stay the same

25% expect to contract a little

9% expect to contract a lot

Percentage

expected to expand

is consistent across

business size

31 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Business hiring plans by company size

Given current

conditions, how

would you

characterize

your overall

staffing situation

relative to your

needs

(i.e., do you have

excess capacity or

are employees

stretched)?

We have anexcess number of

employees

We haveapproximately the

appropriatenumber ofemployees

We have too fewemployees, butare hesitating to

hire

We have too fewemployees andare planning to

hire

Other

< $10 million 14% 58% 14% 11% 3%

$10 to <$100 million 16% 54% 12% 14% 3%

$100 million to <$1 billion 12% 58% 18% 11% 2%

> $1 billion 20% 43% 19% 15% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Demographics

32

24%

34%13%

10%

5%

4%10%

Size of Organization

$0 to under $10 million

$10 million to under $50 million

$50 million to under $100 million

$100 million to under $250 million

$250 million to under $500 million

$500 million to under $1 billion

$1 billion or more

67%

18%

12%

2% 1%

Type of Organization

Privately Owned Entity

Not for Profit

Publicly Listed Company

Other

Government

45%

22%

7%

7%

7%

5%2%

2%2%

Position

CFO

Controller/Comptroller

CEO/COO

Director/Managing Director

President

Vice-President/SVP

Chief Officers (CAO/CIO/CTO/CRO/KMO)

Other (please specify)

Accounting, Audit, Tax or Technology Manager

2Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

AICPA Economic Outlook Survey

Survey within a Survey

Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19)

Q3 2020

34 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Pandemic greatest concern

What is your

greatest

concern about

the COVID-19

pandemic right

now?

4%

2%

5%

5%

22%

29%

33%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Other

Liability issues

Integrity of supply chain

Cash, financing, capital challenges

Customer demand/ability to pay

Uncertainty about stay-at-homerestrictions

Safety/well-being of employeesand/or customers

35 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Pandemic greatest concern – other

Greatest concern – “other” responses

Impact on our customers

Lack of work to bid

Lifting of hiring freeze

Impact of multiple paradigm shifts in customer expectations

The extent of return of business

Significant reduction of consumer spending

Getting product from overseas and then customer ability to pay.

What is your

greatest

concern about

the COVID-19

pandemic right

now?

36 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Provided that

stay-at-home

restrictions will

allow, how does

your company

expect to handle

remote work

versus on-site

operations over

the next 12

months?

Pandemic – remote work vs. on-site plans

15%

5%

9%

22%

33%

17%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

N/A -The nature of our businesshas not involved significant remote

working

Too much uncertainty at this pointto say

Continue to be primarily remote

Majority remote with mix of onsiteactivity

Majority onsite with mix of remoteactivity

Return to primarily onsite withlimited exceptions

37 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Pre-pandemic remote work capabilities

How would you

describe your

company’s

remote work

capabilities

pre-pandemic?

14%

28%

32%

20%

4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Non-existent

Spotty throughout company

Strong in some parts of thecompany, uneven in others

Strong in all aspects as mostworkers could operate virtually

We were completely virtual

38 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Planned Safety Measures

What is your business

planning to do over

the next 12 months to

ensure the safety of

employees and

customers at your

physical location?

(Check all that apply)

Mandating masks in workplace 74%

Providing socially distanced interior workspaces or areas for customer interaction 71%

Providing PPE (personal protection equipment) 64%

Screening workers daily (i.e., temperature checks) 52%

Staggering worker shifts to minimize contact 37%

Screening customers 24%

Upgrading filters and making other improvements to HVAC systems 21%

Automating point-of-sale and other flash points for customer interaction 10%

Providing covered outdoor areas for our employees and/or customers 8%

Other (please specify) 5%

Does not apply because we are operating entirely virtually 4%

None of these 3%

39 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Planned safety measures – “other”

What is your business

planning to do over

the next 12 months to

ensure the safety of

employees and

customers at your

physical location?

(Check all that apply)

Other safety measures

Staggering start times

Split our employees into pods that do not physically interact

Social distancing everywhere in offices and plants

Implement paperless transactions

More virtual sales tools

Restricting access to outside vendors/customers to essential interactions

Discontinued vending services/coffee and water fountains

Quarantine when and where necessary

Additional cleaning and sanitation

Disinfecting high touch point surfaces

HCQ (hydroxychloroquine) education

40 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Office footprint

Are you

planning on

changing your

office footprint

over the next

12 months?

Office space plans %

We plan on reducing footprint by less than 10 percent 5%

We plan on reducing footprint by 10 percent to 24 percent 5%

We plan on reducing our footprint by 25 percent to 49 percent 3%

We plan to reduce our footprint by 50 percent or more 4%

We are giving up all our traditional office space 1%

We plan on increasing our office space 5%

We don't plan any changes 77%

41 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Office footprint reduction rationale

If you indicated

you were

reducing your

office footprint,

what is the

reason?

(Check all that

apply)

27%

20%

81%

23%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Other (please specify)

Decline in business operations

Shift to remote operations

Reduction in staffing

42 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Office footprint reduction rationale – other

If you indicated

you were reducing

your office

footprint, what is

the reason?

“other” responses

Other reasons for reducing office footprint

Combine locations

Opportunity to sell a building

Close remote office

Giving up unused capacity

Closing business when lease expires

Relocating staff out of the US

43 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Current cash position

How would you

describe your

company’s

current cash

position?

47%

38%

12%

2%0%

Strong Acceptable Concerning Dire Not sure

44 3Q 2020 Economic Outlook Survey

Liquidity concern level

How concerned

are you about

your company’s

liquidity position

over the next 12

months?

10%

25%25%

14%

26%

Significantconcern

Moderateconcern

Slight concern Neutral No concern

AICPA Business and IndustryEconomic Outlook Survey 3Q 2020

For additional information contact:

Kenneth W. Witt, CPA, CGMASenior Manager Management AccountingKen.Witt@aicpa-cima.com

Cary JonesAssociate ManagerManagement AccountingCary.Jones@aicpa-cima.com

Thank you!