Post on 25-Jan-2017
AFFORDABLE HOUSING FOR SYDNEY:
SUPPLY PLUS
Eamon WaterfordHead of Strategy & Advocacy, Committee for Sydney
I want to talk about:
• Affordable Housing vs. Housing Affordability
• The context that Australia (and Sydney) is in
• Supply is important
• Supply can’t solve this problem
• 5 things that can solve this problem
Housing affordability
• As much about demand as supply• Prices brought about by money supply as much as
housing demand: and a lack of alternatives for investment
• Perverse incentives for multiple ownership• Enabling higher leverage by existing home-owners and
investors• Squeezing out first time buyers• Supply increases have marginal impact: 2% of new supply
each year• No politician wants to reduce house price inflation
significantly
Affordable housing
• Asset class rather than just about cost• Includes sub market rental and shared equity• Inclusionary zoning: conditions of success and private sector
acceptance• Improving capacity of CHPs through Stock transfer, Long
leases, Estate renewal and Diversification• Boris Johnson and TODS: 22% affordable and social at the
heart of Westminster• Who for: Just for bottom quintile or also for key workers • Should we subsidise people or bricks? One leads to mixing,
one to division • Are mixed communities a virtue?
Sydney is Globally expensive
Source: Demographia, 11th Annual International Housing Affordability Survey 2015
Sydney is Globally expensive
Source: Demographia, 11th Annual International Housing Affordability Survey 2015
Where is the wealth going?
• Top 20 cities for commercial real estate momentum, 2015
Source: Jones Lang LeSalle
Supply is vital to fixing this problem
• Supply must keep up with population growth
• Supply must reflect an increasingly dense and urbanised city
• Supply must grow where people work
• NIMBYism must be combatted
Supply alone will never fix this problem
• How many is enough?
• What number will see prices stagnate?
• What number will see prices drop?
Australia is building more dwellings than the UK
Population Dwelling completions
Australia 2013/14 23.7 Million 156,000
United Kingdom 2013/14
64.6 Million 138,380
Australia vs. UK
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Australia United Kingdom
Caveat: Pre-2013/14 figures for Australia are dwelling starts,
not completions
5 ‘Game-Changers’
1. Maximise the use of public land
2. Government action to trigger private investment
3. Build the market
4. Commit to major renewal of social housing
5. Private development to enhance the affordable end of the market
30
Maximise the use of public land
• An affordable housing register
• Incentivise the release of land for affordable housing
• Partner with the private and not for profit sectors
• Take the lead from London on Transport Oriented Development
31
Government action to trigger private investment
• Options for leveraging private investment
– Seed funding for an investment fund
– A ‘Bond-wrapping’ agency
• A new investor class?
• Policy certainty comes free
32
Build the market
• Community Housing Providers – stepping up
• Property transfers from public housing
• Government leadership on Key Worker Housing
• Getting the roles and risks right
33
Commit to major renewal of social housing
• Existing resources are insufficient
• Social housing as the foundation for opportunities
34
Private development to enhance the affordable end of the market
• Inclusionary Zoning – it’s time to walk and talk
• Investment in the affordable end of the market
35
Current Government projects
• Communities Plus
• $1 Billion Social & Affordable Housing Fund
• Govt. wide Affordable Housing policy
• Residential Tenancy Act review
Extra points
Housing Affordability
• New entrants/new models required
• City management required to connect places with homes and no jobs with places with jobs and no homes
• Polycentric Sydney?
• Rent here to stay
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