AFFECTIVE FORECASTING

PSYC 385

Affective Forecasting - Definition

Creation of Affective Forecasts

Components of Forecasts

1. Valence

2. Specific emotions

3. Intensity

4. Duration

Impact Bias

The tendency to overestimate the enduring impact that future events will have on our emotional reactions.

Se-ries1

Predicted Experienced

Time

Intensity

Neglecting Other Outcomes

Focalism: Tendency to focus on just the emotional experience at hand, neglecting the extent to which unrelated events will also be affecting their thoughts and emotions.Misconstrual problem: sometimes people will mistakenly imagine the wrong event.

Differences > similarities

Isolation effect: occurs when people disregard components that the alternatives share and focus on the components that distinguish them.

Past Experiences

Don’t remember enough information about our previous emotional states

Peak & end rules

Impossible to Predict Future

Projection Bias How you feel now is not how you feel later

Affective Experiences

Expectation Effects

Expectations influence outcomes Self-fulfilling prophecy

Where else we go wrong

Hot & cold states Groceries while hungry

Emotional evanescence

Adaptation level theories1. People orient towards unexpected but relevant info

in their environment2. Experience more intense emotional reactions to

unexpected, relevant info than to other events3. Once an unexpected event occurs and people have a

relatively intense emotional reaction, they attempt to make sense of the event, quickly and automatically

4. When people make sense of an event it no longer seems surprising or unexpected, and as a result they think about it less and it produces a less intense emotional reaction

Psychological Immune System

We have many psychological defenses that detect and neutralize events that challenge people’s sense of well-being.

Not a conscious process

Immune Neglect

Similar to ordinization

Do you think negative feedback will feel terrible?

Summary of Errors

Why don’t we learn?

Recall is subject to same biases Intensity & duration are remembered

incorrectly Focalism

How can we improve?

Research on prediction suggests: Adopting an outside view Performing some cognitive repairs Aggregating Predictions