Naresh Jain naresh@agilefaqs.com

twitter: @nashjain

http://nareshjain.com

Adaptive Change Cycle Why Nothing Lasts Forever!

Which  line  is  the  longest?

1

2

3

Müller-Lyer optical illusion

Which  Orange  Circle  is  bigger?

Ebbinghaus optical illusion

Count the number of times the team in white

t-shirt pass the ball

Video on Selective Attention http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJG698U2Mvo

Selec4ve  A7en4on

The  process  by  which  a  person  can  selec4vely  pick  out  one  s4mulus  from  a  mixture  of  s4muli  occurring  simultaneously.

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Mumbai

Tech Talks!

Pet  Plant  Research  @  an  elderly  Nursing  Home

Student  Volunteers  @  Nursing  Home

Why?

What  would  you  prefer?

A  lo7ery  4cket  with  a  random  number    

or  a  number  you’ve  picked?

What  would  you  prefer?

In  the  Casino,  if  you  toss  the  dice    

or  someone  else  tosses  the  dice?

Do you think it will make any difference?

Illusion  of  Control

Our  desire  to  control  is  so  powerful  that  the  feeling  of  being  in  control  is  so  rewarding  that  people  oLen  act  as  though  they  can  control  the  uncontrollable.

Electrical  Shock  Research

High  Volts  Shock  Group  vs.  Low  Volts  Shock  Group  

 5  shocks  of  5  volts  each  vs.  3  shocks  of  2-­‐4  volts  each  

Every  10  seconds  vs.  Random  4me  intervalWhich Group would have sweated more, whose heart beats would be faster and who claimed

to be more afraid?

Uncertainty

Why? Our desire to Control

How  do  we  deal  with  Uncertainty?

Predictability  Paradox

How to Organize a Children's Party?

A video by Dave Snowdenhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Miwb92eZaJg

Summary  -­‐  Cynefin  Model

Why is there only ONE Toyota or Apple today?

Products & Processes are like haircuts Copying someone else’s rarely works

Retrospec4ve  Coherence

Hindsight does not lead to foresight!

Will Apple or Toyota’s success last for ever?

Why not?

Adaptive Change Cycle

Adaptive Change Cycle in the Automobile Industry

Every 10 Years Process Go Thru The Adaptive Change Cycle

Adaptive Change Cycle

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References

http://www.resalliance.org/

Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems

Noah Raford - Explaining the Cycle of Adaptive Change

Being ‘agile’ OVER

Following ‘Agile’

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5  Key  take-­‐aways  from  this  Session

Beware  of  Illusion  of  Control  and  Predictability  Paradox  

Ac4on  Precedes  Clarity  

Retrospec4ve  Coherence  -­‐  Copying  rarely  helps  

Perfec4on  in  very  first  a7empt  is  impossible,  iterate  via  safe-­‐fail  experimenta4on  to  eventually  a7ain  perfec4on    

Nothing  lasts  for  ever,  go  through  the  adap4ve  change  cycle  as  rapidly  as  possible  (reorganisa4on,  exploita4on,  conserva4on  &  release)

Be  careful  not  to…

Naresh Jain naresh@agilefaqs.com

twitter: @nashjain

http://nareshjain.com

Ques4ons?