Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

Heather McGrayWorld Resources Institute

Transforming Transportation 2010January 15, 2010

IADB, Washington, DC

Adaptation

• What is it?

• What does it mean for development?

• What does it mean for transport?

Copenhagen

• What happened?

• What does it mean for adaptation?

• Where do we go from here?

What is Adaptation?

• Adjustment in response to climate stimuli

• Moderates harm OR exploits opportunities

• May be anticipatory or reactive

(IPCC 2007)

What is Adaptation? (2)

• An ongoing process, NOT an endpoint

• Learning from experience

• Anticipating the future

• A set of capacities that fosters ongoing adjustment

What about adaptation and development?

Household Level Adaptation Practices

• Mobility • Storage• Diversification• Communal Pooling• Exchange

Source: Agrawal 2008

Adaptation Project Strategy Types

Source: McGray et al (2007), as modified by Hedger et al (2008)

0 100

x = the incremental benefit from a given activity due to climate change

Development – Adaptation Continuum

(The (Over-)Simplified Version)

Adaptation in the Transport Sector

Building capacities for:

• Assessment

• Prioritization

• Information Management

• Coordination

• Climate Risk Reduction

For additional information, see WRI’s “National Adaptive Capacity Framework” (2009): http://www.wri.org/project/vulnerability-and-adaptation/nac-framework

Copenhagen What happened?

• Negotiators did not reach closure.• Heads of state engaged deeply.• The Copenhagen Accord has uncertain

status.• We have a new system of

“internationalized domestic commitments.”

For additional reflections from WRI on what happened, please see http://www.wri.org/stories/2009/12/reflections-copenhagen-accord-and-way-forward

Copenhagen What does it mean for adaptation?

• Mitigation target: 2 degrees• Finance target: $15b/yr. in “quick-start”

finance• Finance target: Some portion of

$100b/year in long-term finance• Tremendous uncertainty about

operationalization• Need for building trust

Copenhagen Where do we go from here?

• Jan. 31 deadline for commitments.• Watch the US, EU on finance.• Growing need for good adaptation

action models.• Focus shifts to national governments,

smaller multi-lateral arenas.• Growing diversity of institutions

engaged.

Thank you!

Heather McGrayhmcgray@wri.org