Post on 25-Jul-2020
Cesar Cunha Campos
Director, FGV Projetos
diretoria.fgvprojetos@fgv.br
New York, November 2014
5th Brazil Infrastructure Investments Forum
Airport Infrastructure in Brazil
2
Ports - Railways - Airports -
Public-Private Partnerships
(PPP/P3): what to
expect in the near future
1. ABOUT FGV AND FGV PROJETOS
2. BRAZIL OVERVIEW
3. BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES IN THE BRAZILIAN AIRPORT INDUSTRY
AGENDA
3
ABOUT FGV AND
FGV PROJETOS 4
Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) founded in 1944, is
the leading Think Tank in Latin America and Top 25
in the world
Its mission is to boost the socioeconomic
development of Brazil and boost its role in the
international scene
ABOUT FGV AND FGV PROJETOS
FGV’s technical advisory unit to public, private and
third-sector institutions in Brazil and abroad
Develops projects in different areas: economics,
administration, and public policy
30 years experience
Over 1300 projects developed
5
Academic
Units
Business
Schools
RJ – EBAPE
SP - EAESP
Economics
Schools
RJ – EPGE
SP – EESP
Law
Schools
RJ – Direito Rio
SP – Direito GV
Social Sciences
School
RJ - CPDOC
FGV
Applied
Mathematics School
RJ - EMAp
Applied
Knowledge Units
FGV
Projetos
Brazilian Institute
of Economy (IBRE) Publishing
House Continuing Education
Programs (IDE)
Applied Research
Centers
Communication
& Journalism
School
(to be founded)
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
6
BRAZIL OVERVIEW Geography and Population
7
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
Economy
8
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
Macroeconomic
9
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
Macroeconomic
34%
18%
17%
10
BRAZIL OVERVIEW
Social
11
CHALLENGES AHEAD
New growth model
Consumption- led growth
Investment- led growth
BRAZIL’S KEY SUCCESS FACTORS:
• Consistent macroeconomic policies
• Recovering investors’ confidence
• Reduction of real interest rates and “cost of doing business”
• Increase private investments (mainly in infrastructure)
• Productivity increase
• Investments represent only 18% of GDP
Job generation
Steady income increases
Increased social equality
Social programs
12
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
INFRASTRUCTURE:
• Brazilian Government estimated infrastructure investments of over US$ 295.2 billion for the coming
years
• Highways (7.500 km), railways (10.000 km), airports and ports
QUALITY OF EDUCATION:
• In 2011 Brazil’s public expenditure on education was 6.1% of GDP – above the OECD average of 5.6%
• Challenge: increase the quality of education In the Program of International Student Assessment
(PISA), Brazil still performs below the OECD average
IMPROVEMENT OF PROCESSES:
• Improving the hiring process for public sector
• Bureaucracy reduction
13
MAKING THE CASE
FOR SMART
INFRASTRUCTURE
INVESTMENTS:
BUSINESS
OPPORTUNITIES IN
THE BRAZILIAN
AIRPORT INDUSTRY
14
AIRPORTS AS SMART INFRASTRUCTURE
“Tomorrow’s infrastructure
will blend traditional
physical-infrastructure
(transportation and transit
systems, buildings, pipes,
power grid, concrete and
steel) with cyber-
infrastructure (computers,
networks and sensors) in
ways that are just
emerging”
MOBILITY
REAL ESTATE
SECURITY
INFRASTRUCTURAL
GRID
INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
COMMERCE
LOGISTICS
http://www.ices.cmu.edu/sii/home.asp 15
AIR TRAFFIC TREND
Source: National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC)
The growth of the number of domestic and international passengers – departures, between 2009 - 2013 is 56%:
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
mil
lio
n
71
87
101
109 111
22%
17% 7%
1% 56%
2009 - 2013
16
MAJOR BRAZILIAN AIRPORTS
17
AIRPORTS CONCESSIONS TIMELINE
Up to 2009 2013 2012 2011
PORTO SEGURO (BA) SÃO GONÇALO
DO AMARANTE
(RN)
CAMPINAS (SP)
BRASILIA (DF)
GUARULHOS (SP)
CONFINS (MG)
GALEÃO (RJ) INTERNACIONAL
DE CABO FRIO (RJ)
1º Batch of Concessions 2º Batch of Concessions
2015
CURITIBA (PR)
RECIFE (PE)
CUIABÁ (MT)
PRIVATE INITIATIVE
AIRPORT – NASP (SP)
+
3º Batch of Concessions
Brazil
18
CONCESSIONS FINANCIAL RESULTS
Brazil
US$ 8 bi US$ 2 bi
US$ 780 mi US$ 467 mi
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS MINIMUM SIGNATURE BONUS
US$ 10.5 bi
2013
2012
2011 SÃO GONÇALO
DO AMARANTE (RN)
GUARULHOS (SP)
VIRACOPOS (SP)
BRASILIA (DF)
GALEÃO (RJ)
CONFINS (MG)
% INCREASE
229%
374%
160%
673%
294%
66%
US$ 8.78 bi
US$ 73 mi
NAME
1º Auction
Feb
2º Auction
Nov
US$ 7 bi
US$ 1.6 bi
US$ 1.9 bi
US$ 22 mi US$ 73 mi
US$ 1.5 bi
US$ 852 mi
US$ 250 mi
19 Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
GUARULHOS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
São Paulo - SP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2031
millio
n
Passenger flow
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS
US$ 7 bi
% INCREASE
374%
OWNERSHIP ECONOMICS
12% 9%
12%
ESTIMATED CAPEX DURING
CONCESSION
US$ 2 bi
CONCESSION TERM
20 years
Source: INFRAERO, DASP
WINNER GROUP
INVEPAR
Airport Company South Africa
(ACSA)
STAKEHOLDERS
INVEPAR: 90%
ACSA: 10%
64%
20 Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
VIRACOPOS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Campinas - SP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2010 2011 2012 2013 2041
millio
ns
WINNER GROUP
CONSORCIO AEROPORTOS
BRASIL
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS
US$ 1.6 bi
% INCREASE
160%
OWNERSHIP ECONOMICS
Passenger flow
39% 17% 5%
STAKEHOLDERS
TRIUNFO : 45%
UTC : 45%
EGIS: 10%
ESTIMATED CAPEX DURING
CONCESSION
US$ 3.7 bi
CONCESSION TERM
30 years
Source: INFRAERO, DASP
761%
21 Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
JUSCELINO KUBITSCHEK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Brasília - DF
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2011 2012 2013 2036
millio
ns
WINNER GROUP
CONSORCIO
INFRAMERICA
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS
US$ 1.9 bi
% INCREASE
673%
OWNERSHIP ECONOMICS
Passenger flow
7% 3% 5%
STAKEHOLDERS
INFRAVIX :50%
CORPORACION AMERICANA : 50%
ESTIMATED CAPEX DURING
CONCESSION
US$ 1.2 bi
CONCESSION TERM
25 years
Source: INFRAERO, Brasilia Aeroporto
147%
22 Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
ANTÔNIO CARLOS JOBIM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Rio de Janeiro - RJ
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2010 2011 2012 2013 2038
millio
ns
WINNER GROUP
AEROPORTOS
DO FUTURO
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS
US$ 8 bi
% INCREASE
294 %
OWNERSHIP ECONOMICS
STAKEHOLDERS
ODEBRECHT: 60%
CHANGI (Cingapura): 40%
ESTIMATED CAPEX DURING
CONCESSION
US$ 2.4 bi
CONCESSION TERM
25 years
Passenger flow
21%
17% -2%
Source: INFRAERO, DASP
253%
23 Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
TANCREDO NEVES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
Belo Horizonte - MG
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2043
millio
ns
Passenger flow
WINNER GROUP
AEROBRASIL
WINNING SIGNATURE BONUS
US$ 780 mi
% INCREASE
66 %
OWNERSHIP ECONOMICS
STAKEHOLDERS
CCR: 75%
MUNICH/ZURICH: 25%
ESTIMATED CAPEX DURING
CONCESSION
US$ 1.5 bi
CONCESSION TERM
30 years
31% 9% -4%
Source: INFRAERO, DASP
333%
24 Source: Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC) | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
AIRPORT DEVELOPMENTS OUTLOOK
BUSINESS INVESTMENT
OPPORTUNITIES
2015
NEW CONCESSIONS
FORECAST
EXECUTIVE
AVIATION PRIVATE INITIATIVE
AIRPORTS
25
NEW CONCESSIONS FORECAST
CURITIBA (PR)
INITIAL VALUE FORECAST
US$ 557 mi
N° PASSENGERS/2013
6.7 mi
RECIFE
GUARARAPES (PE)
INITIAL VALUE FORECAST
US$ 557 mi
N° PASSENGERS/2013:
6.8 mi
CUIABÁ
MARECHAL RONDON (MT)
INITIAL VALUE FORECAST
US$ 161 mi
N° PASSENGERS/2013
3 mi
Source: Brazilian Airport Infrastructure Company (INFRAERO) | The exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) –
Brazilian Central Bank 26
PRIVATE INITIATIVE AIRPORTS
The Nasp, São Paulo’s new airport, will be the first public airport for commercial flights built by private enterprise
NASP
CONGONHAS
GUARULHOS
CAMPO DE MARTE
CONSORTIUM
ANDRADE GUTIERREZ (50%)
CAMARGO CORRÊA (50%)
OWNERSHIP
LOCALIZATION
Municipality of CAIEIRAS (SP)
ECONOMICS
Investment: US$ 2.3 bi
Turnover: US$ 300 mi/year
30 km
http://oglobo.globo.com
PASSENGERS/YEAR
45 mi
Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
Nasp
27
EXECUTIVE AVIATION
CAÇAPAVA – AEROVALE
Article 627 of the MP, releases the construction of private airports for commercial flights (small planes for private use)
Source: http://economia.estadao.com.br; http://www.valor.com.br | Exchange rate US$1=R$ 2,3326 (Sept 2014) – Brazilian Central Bank
CATARINA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT
LOCALIZATION: Caçapava (SP)
OWNER: Grupo Penido
AREA: 2,25 mn mq
(117 Aeronautical Lots 188 Commercial /
Industrial Lots)
INVESTMENT: US$ 107 mi
LOCALIZATION: São Roque (SP)
OWNER: JHSF
AREA:
INVESTMENT: US$ 169 mi in the project’s 1st
phase
Revenue of US$ 73 mi in the 3rd year
120 km from SP
55 km from SP
7 mn mq
28
Thank you!
diretoria.fgvprojetos@fgv.br