2014CMES guide and program 0621A -...

2014 China Meeting of Econometric Society

Program Overview

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

08:00-08:30 Opening Ceremony

08:30-09:30 Keynote I

09:30-10:15 Keynote II

10:15-10:45 Coffee Break

10:45-12:15 Parallel Sessions IP01-IP04 CP01-CP07 MW01

12:15-14:00 Lunch

14:00-14:45 Keynote III

14:45-15:30 Keynote IV

15:30-16:45 Coffee Break & Poster Session I

16:00-16:45 Poster Session I

18:30-20:30 Dinner

Thursday, June 26, 2014

08:30-09:15 Keynote V

09:15-10:00 Keynote VI

12:00-14:00 Lunch

14:00-14:45 Keynote VII

14:45-15:30 Keynote VIII

15:30-16:45 Coffee Break & Poster Session II

16:00-16:45 Poster Session II

18:30-20:30 Dinner

Friday, June 27, 2014

12:00-14:00 Lunch

14:00-14:45 Keynote IX

15:15-16:45 Parallel Sessions IP25-IP27 CP43-CP51

18:00-20:00 Dinner

IP: Invited Sessions

CP: Contributed Sessions

MW: Monash-WISE workshop Sessions

1. All sessions are at either Section N or Section D, Economic Building;

2. Opening Ceremony and all Keynote Sessions are in Room N402;

3. All MW Sessions are in Room N118;

4. Poster Sessions are at the Hallway of the 4th floor at Section N;

5. For the venue of Parallel Sessions, please see the parallel sessions overview or detailed program;

6. All Coffee Breaks are at Section N (the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th floor ), the yard of Section D (or the Hallway of the 2nd floor between Section C and Section D).

7. The book exhibition is at the lobby of Section N.

Parallel Sessions Overview

Venue RoomN203 RoomN303 RoomN302 RoomN301 RoomN118 RoomN401 RoomN406 RoomN501 RoomD209 RoomD210 RoomD309 RoomD310

June 25 IP01 IP02 IP03 IP04 MW01 CP01 CP02 CP03 CP04 CP05 CP06 CP07

10:45-12:15

Nonparametric

Estimation and Testing

Microeconomics I

Chinese Economy I

Modelling Financial

Distress and Credit Risk

Test & Identificatio

Nonlinear and

Nonparametric Models

Panel Data Models I

Auctions and Contests

Macroeconomics I

Insurance and Cash Flow Sensitivity

Decision regarding

High Education

Corruption: Theory and Empirics

IP05 IP06 IP07 IP08 MW02 CP08 CP09 CP10 CP11 CP12 CP13 CP14

16:45-18:15

Time Series and

Financial Econometri

Treatment Effects

Exchange Rate Dynamics and International

Trade in Chinese Economy

Financial Econometri

Copula & Finance

Asymptotic Theory

Hypothesis Testing

Mechanism Design & Markets

Monetary Economics

Credit Risk Microeconomi

Economic Studies of

Long-Term Impact

10:30-12:00 Panel Data Models II

Microeconomics III

Chinese Economy II

The Financial

Market and Macro

Finance

Time Series &

ForecastingWeak IV

Econometric Modelling

Contracting and

Mechanism

Growth, Fiscal Policy

and Miscellaneous

Financial Econometrics

Migration and Aging

Comparing Policy Effects

across Chinese Regions

16:45-18:15 Labor

EconomicsMicroeconomics IV

Chinese Economy in

Globalization Era: Trade and

Semiparametric Panel

Data Models

Experimental

Econometrics & Game

Theory

Time Series I

Topics in Economics

Asymmetric Information

Macroeconomics II

Regional Heterogeneity and Economic Consequences

Panel Data Models III

8:30-10:00 Time Series

II Microeconomics V

Trade and China

Health Economics I

Nonparametric

Econometrics I

Applied Econometri

Matching and Assignments

Market Design

Financial Friction and

Macroeconomics

Macro Finance I

Optimal Contract

Labor Force Participation

10:30-12:00

Panel Data Econometri

cs with Cross-Secti

onal Dependence

Nonstandard

Inference

Topics in Econometrics

Mathematical

Economics

Econometrics in Macro

& Micro

Time Series III

Microeconomics VI

Trust and Reciprocity

Housing Economics

Macro Finance II

Public Economics

Optimal Pricing

IP25 IP26 IP27 CP51 CP50 CP43 CP44 CP45 CP46 CP47 CP48 CP49

15:15-16:45

Inference for Panel

and Spatial-temporal Data

Nonparametric

Econometrics II

Non- and Semi-Parametric Inference

Health Economics

Industrial Organizatio

Applied Econometri

Microeconomics VII

Political Economics

and Institutions

Political Economy

Topics in Economics (in Chinese 中文

Social Interaction

and Coordination

Detailed Program

2014 China Meeting of Econometric Society June 25-27, 2014

Xiamen University, China

The name of the presenter is in bold letters, and only the affiliation of the presenter is indicated.

Wednesday, June 25

Opening Ceremony: 08:00-8:30, Room N402 Session Chair: Zongwu Cai (caiz@ku.edu), University of Kansas

Keynote Session I: 08:30-09:30, Room N402 Session Chair: Lung-Fei Lee (lflee@ecolan.sbs.ohio-state.edu), Ohio State University

“The Market and Nonmarket Effects of Schooling” James J. Heckman (jjh@uchicago.edu), University of Chicago

Keynote Session II: 09:30-10:15, Room N402 Session Chair: Zongwu Cai (caiz@ku.edu), University of Kansas

“Using Panel Data to Disentangle Multiple Treatment Effects” Cheng Hsiao (chsiao@usc.edu), University of Southern California

Section N (the 2nd, 3rd and 5th floor), yard of Section D (or the Hallway of the 2nd floor between Section C and Section D)

Parallel Sessions (10:45-12:15) 10:45-12:15 Invited Sessions IP01-IP04 10:45-12:15 Contributed Sessions CP01-CP07 10:45-12:15 Monash-WISE Workshop Session MW01

Session IP01: Nonparametric Estimation and Testing, 10:45-12:15, Room N203 Session Chair: Bin Chen (bchen8@mail.rochester.edu), University of Rochester

[1] “Estimating Smooth Structural Change in Cointegration Models” Peter C. B. Phillips, Degui Li (degui.li@york.ac.uk), and Jiti Gao, University of York

[2] “A Note on Overidentification Test” Xuexin Wang (xuexinwang@outlook.com), Xiamen University

[3] “An Improved Transfer-Based Kernel Estimator of Copula Densities” Kuangyu Wen and Ximing Wu (xwu@tamu.edu), Texas A&M University and Xiamen University

Session IP02: Microeconomics I, 10:45-12:15, Room N303 Session Chair: Rongzhu Ke (rzke@cuhk.edu.hk), The Chinese University of Hong Kong

[1] “Are Migrant Students Discriminated in Public Schools? Evidence from Shanghai” Yuanyuan Chen (yychen@mail.shufe.edu.cn) and Shuaizhang Feng, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Vehicle Quota System and Its Impact on The Chinese Auto Markets : A Tale of Two Cities” Junji Xiao, Xiaolan Zhou (julylan22@qq.com), and Wei-Min Hu, Shanghai University of Economics and Finance

[3] “Nonparametric Identification of Moral Hazard Problem: First Order Approach and Statistical Inference” Rongzhu Ke (rzke@cuhk.edu.hk), The Chinese University of Hong Kong

Session IP03: Chinese Economy I, 10:45-12:15, Room N302 Session Chair: Qing Liu (liuqing@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn), Tsinghua University

[1] “Identifying Monetary Policy Behavior in China: A Bayesian DSGE Approach” Bing Li (libing@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn) and Qing Liu, Tsinghua University

[2] “Understanding Chinese Business Cycles” Cheng Ding and Lin Zhang (zhanglin@swufe.edu.cn), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Investing Like China” Chong-En Bai, Qing Liu (liuqing@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn), and Wen Yao, Tsinghua University

Session IP04: Modelling Financial Distress and Credit Risk, 10:45-12:15, Room N301 Session Chair: Juan Yao (juan.yao@sydney.edu.au), University of Sydney

[1] “The Mechanics of Ex Ante Bankruptcy Cost, Corporate Capital Structure, and Debt Maturity” Yong Kil Ahn (ykahn@ust.hk), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[2] “The Dynamic Prediction of Company Failure: The Influence of Time, The Economy and Non-Linearity” Graham Partington (Graham.Partington@sydney.edu.au) and Maria Kim, University of Sydney

[3] “Hedge Fund Lifetime, Survival Probability and Economic Condition” Juan Yao (juan.yao@sydney.edu.au) and Hee Soo Lee, University of Sydney

Session CP01: Nonlinear and Nonparametric Models, 10:45-12:15, Room N401 Session Chair: Arthur Lewbel (lewbel@bc.edu), Boston College

[1] “Identifying The Effect of Changing The Policy Threshold in Regression Discontinuity Models” Yingying Dong (yyd@uci.edu) and Arthur Lewbel, University of California, Irvine

[2] “Identification and QML Estimation of Multivariate and Simultaneous Spatial

Autoregression Models” Kai Yang (yang.1840@osu.edu) and Lung-Fei Lee, The Ohio State University

[3] “Identifying The Average Treatment Effect in A Two Threshold Model” Arthur Lewbel (lewbel@bc.edu) and Thomas Tao Yang, Boston College

Session CP02: Panel Data Models I, 10:45-12:15, Room N406 Session Chair: Ji-Liang Shiu (jishiu@hotmail.com), Renmin University of China

[1] “Testing for Cross-Sectional Dependence in A Panel Data Model with Time Series Autocorrelation” Chihwa Kao and Long Liu (long.liu@utsa.edu), University of Texas at San Antonio

[2] “Logit Model Bayesian Inference Using Informative and Noninformative Priors” Tahir Abbas Malik and Zhengming Qian (zmqianxm@126.com), Xiamen University

[3] “Statistical Inference for Panel Dynamic Simultaneous Equations Models” Cheng Hsiao and Qiankun Zhou (qiankunz@usc.edu), University of Southern California

[4] “Identification and Estimation of Nonseparable Regression Functions in Dynamic Panel Data Models” Ji-Liang Shiu (jishiu@hotmail.com), Renmin University of China

Session CP03: Auctions and Contests, 10:45-12:15, Room N501 Session Chair: Zhewei Wang (zheweiwang@hotmail.com), Shandong University

[1] “How Risk Sharing May Enhance Efficiency in English Auctions” Audrey Hu (x.hu@uva.nl), Theo Offerman, and Liang Zou, University of Amsterdam

[2] “Autocontour-Testing in Unstable Environments” Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera and Yingying Sun (yingyingsun_econ@163.com), Huazhong University of Science and Technology

[3] “Multi-Prize Contests: An Axiomatization Perspective” Jingfeng Lu and Zhewei Wang (zheweiwang@hotmail.com), Shandong University

Session CP04: Macroeconomics I, 10:45-12:15, Room D209 Session Chair: Min Zhang (maggiez75@hotmail.com), Shanghai University of Finance and

Economics

[1] “Tax Evasion Through Trade Intermediation: Evidence from Chinese Exporters” Xupeng Liu, Huimin Shi (huiminshi@ruc.edu.cn), and Michael Ferrantino, Renmin University of China

[2] “Are Credit Default Swaps Redundant?” Xu Hu (huxu85@gmail.com), Fudan University

[3] “UI Eligibility Rule, Moral Hazard, and Optimal Unemployment Transfer Scheme” Min Zhang (maggiez75@hotmail.com) and Jia Pan, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Session CP05: Insurance and Cash Flow Sensitivity, 10:45-12:15, Room D210 Session Chair: Jing Cai (caijing@umich.edu), University of Michigan

[1] “Cash Flow Sensitivities and the Allocation of Internal Cash Flow” Xin Chang, Sudipto Dasgupta, George Wong, and Jiaquan Yao (YAOJ0002@e.ntu.edu.sg), Nanyang Technological University

[2] “The Role of Insurance in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from Mortgage Market” Sumit Agarwal and Yunqi Zhang (zhangyunqi@nus.edu.sg), National University of Singapore

[3] “Subsidy Policies and Insurance Demand” Jing Cai (caijing@umich.edu), Alain De Janvry, and Elisabeth Sadoulet, University of Michigan

Session CP06: Decision regarding High Education, 10:45-12:15, Room D309 Session Chair: Weina Zhou (wnxzhou@gmail.com), Dalhousie University

[1] “Cost and Risk Sharing in Higher Education” Yi Li (liyi.129@gmail.com), University of Wisconsin-Madison

[2] “College Enrollment, State Reform, and Human Capital: Evidence from China” Yao Yao (yaoyao@go.wustl.edu), Washington University in St. Louis

[3] “How Does A Hard Manual Labour Experience during Youth Affect Life Later? The Long-term Impact of the Send-down Program during the Chinese Cultural Revolution” Weina Zhou (wnxzhou@gmail.com), Dalhousie University

Session CP07: Corruption: Theory and Empirics, 10:45-12:15, Room D310 Session Chair: Xiaohuan Lan (xhlan@ckgsb.edu.cn), Cheung Kong Graduate School of

Business

[1] “Procurement Design with Corruption” Roberto Burguet (roberto.burguet@iae.csic.es), Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) and Barcelona GSE

[2] “The Political Economy Determinants of The Firm Size Distribution: Evidence from China” Yu Liu (dav.yu.liu@yale.edu), Yale University

[3] “Swiss Watch Cycles: Evidence of Corruption during Leadership Transition in China” Xiaohuan Lan (xhlan@ckgsb.edu.cn) and Wei Li, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business

Session MW01: Test & Identification, 10:45-12:15, Room N118 Session Chair: Mervyn Silvapulle (mervyn.silvapulle@monash.edu), Monash University

[1] “Identifying Structural Breaks in Stochastic Mortality Models” Colin O’Hare (colin.ohare@monash.edu) and Youwei Li, Monash University

[2] “Issues of Mis-specification in Fractionally Integrated Models” K. Nadarajah, Gael M. Martin and Donald Poskitt (donald.poskitt@monash.edu), Monash University

[3] “Bootstrap Specification Tests for The Error Distribution in Multiplicative Error Models” Indeewara Perera and Mervyn Silvapulle (mervyn.silvapulle@monash.edu), Monash University

12:15-14:00 Lunch

Keynote Session III: 14:00-14:45, Room N402 Session Chair: Jiti Gao (jiti.gao@monash.edu), Monash University

“Wald-Type Tests When Rank Conditions Fail: Problems, Solutions, and Econometric Applications” Jean-Marie Dufour (jean-marie.dufour@mcgill.ca), MaGill University

Keynote Session IV: 14:45-15:30, Room N402 Session Chair: Chunrong Ai (chunrong.ai@warrington.ufl.edu), University of Florida

“Econometric Issues Arising in Banking” Nicholas Kiefer (nickkiefer@aol.com), Cornell University

15:30-16:45 Coffee Break & Poster Session I

Coffee Break: Section N (the 2nd, 3rd and 5th floor), yard of Section D (or the Hallway of the 2nd floor between Section C and Section D)

Poster Session I: 16:00-16:45, Hallway of the 4th floor at Section N

[1] “Limitations of The Approximation Capabilities of The Translog Model: Implications for Energy Demand and Technical Change Analysis”

Sourour Baccar (sourour.baccar@tunet.tn), University of Sfax

[2] “On The Distributional Effect of Japan's Equal Employment Opportunity Law on the Gender Wage Gap”

Juan Nelson Martinez Dahbura (jnelsonm64@gmail.com), Keio University

[3] “Business Time Sampling Scheme and Its Application”

Yingjie Dong (yj.dong.2010@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

[4] “National Regional Development Strategy, Market Segmentation and Economic Growth”

Xin Fan (jlufx@126.com), Jilin university

[5] “The Role of Interpersonal Comparisons in A Real Effort Competition”

Lingbo Huang (lingbo.huang@nottingham.ac.uk), University of Nottingham

[6] “Whither China? Reform and Economic Integration among Chinese Regions”

Shuo Huang (shuang@swufe.edu.cn), Southwest University of Finance and Economics

[7] “Rank Order Tournament of Multiple Venders in The Presence of Hold-Up”

Takuya Nakaizumi (nakaizum@kanto-gakuin.ac.jp), Kanto Gakuin University

[8] “Bargaining with Split-The-Difference Arbitration”

Kang Rong (rong.kang@shufe.edu.cn), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[9] “Estimation of INAR Model with Katz Family Arrivals”

Jiajing Sun (jiajing@ucas.ac.cn), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

[10] “Central Bank Preference and Time Series Property of Inflation. Evidence from Asia”

Bin Tan (bintan@swufe.edu.cn), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[11] “Decentralized Labor Markets, Credit within the Firm and Macroeconomic Implications”

Yicheng Wang (wangyicheng1192@gmail.com), University of Rochester

[12] “How Large Are The Effects of Simultaneity on Testing Granger-Causality? ”

Joachim Wilde (joachim.wilde@uni-osnabrueck.de), University Osnabrueck

[13] “Real Economy Influenced by Commercial Banks: Analysis of The Internal and External Factor”

Tong Yu (tongyu@whu.edu.cn), Wuhan University

Session IP05: Time Series and Financial Econometrics, 16:45-18:15, Room N203 Session Chair: John Chao (johncchao@yahoo.com), University of Maryland

[1] “Shrinkage Estimation of Regression Models with Multiple Structural Change” Junhui Qian (junhuiq@gmail.com) and Liangjun Su, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

[2] “Volatility and Quantile Forecasts by Realized Stochastic Volatility Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution” Makoto Takahashi, Toshiaki Watanabe (watanabe@ier.hit-u.ac.jp), and Yasuhio Omori, Hitotsubashi University

[3] “Copula Models with Filtered Nonstationarity” Zhijie Xiao (zhijie.xiao@bc.edu), Boston College

Session IP06: Treatment Effects, 16:45-18:15, Room N303 Session Chair: Yu-Chin Hsu (ychsu@econ.sinica.edu.tw), Institute of Economics, Academia

Sinica

[1] “A Covariate Selection Criterion for Estimation of Treatment Effects” Xun Lu (xunlu@ust.hk), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[2] “Marginal Quantile Treatment Effect” Ping Yu (p.yu@auckland.ac.nz), University of Auckland

[3] “Consistent Tests for Conditional Treatment Effects” Yu-Chin Hsu (ychsu@econ.sinica.edu.tw), Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica

Session IP07: Exchange Rate Dynamics and International Trade in Chinese Economy, 16:45-18:15, Room N302

Session Chair: Jenny Xu (jennyxu@ust.hk), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[1] “Forward Expectation of Exchange Rate and Chinese Importers” David Cook, Yao Amber Li (yaoli@ust.hk), and Chen Zhao, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[2] “A Model of Chinese Real Exhange Rate” Jiandong Ju, Yifu Lin, Qing Liu, and Kang Shi (kangshi@cuhk.edu.hk), Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “Structural Change and The Dynamics of Real Exchange Rate” Yong Wang, Jenny Xu (jennyxu@ust.hk), and Xiaodong Zhu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

Session IP08: Financial Econometrics I, 16:45-18:15, Room N301 Session Chair: Heather Anderson (heather.anderson@monash.edu), Monash University

[1] “Quantifying Informational Linkages in A Global Model of Currency Spot Markets” Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo (mgreenwood@unimelb.edu.au), Viet Nguyen, and Yongcheol Shin, University of Melbourne

[2] “Financial Bubble Implosion” Peter C. B. Phillips and Shuping Shi (shuping.shi@mq.edu.au), Macquarie University

[3] “Continuous and Jump Betas: Applications for Portfolio Management” Vitali Alexeev, Mardi Dungey, and Wenying Yao (wenying.yao@utas.edu.au), University of Tasmania

Session CP08: Asymptotic Theory, 16:45-18:15, Room N401 Session Chair: Jamie Alcock (jamie.alcock@gmail.com), The University of Sydney

[1] “On The Bootstrap for Moran's I Test for Spatial Dependence” Fei Jin (jin.fei@shufe.edu.cn) and Lung-Fei Lee, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Fixed-B Inference for Difference-In-Differences Estimation” Yu Sun (yusun107@gmail.com), Capital University of Economics and Business

[3] “Non-Parametric American Option Pricing Using Cressie-Read Divergences” Jamie Alcock (jamie.alcock@gmail.com) and Godfrey Smith, The University of Sydney

Session CP09: Hypothesis Testing, 16:45-18:15, Room N406 Session Chair: Sainan Jin (snjin@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

[1] “Testing Constancy of Conditional Joint Dependence” Zhonghao Fu (zf33@cornell.edu), Cornell University

[2] “Nonparametric Tests of Conditional Symmetry in Nonparametric Models” Xiaojun Song (songxiaojun2001@gmail.com), Universidad Carlos III De Madrid

[3] “Testing The Martingale Hypothesis” Peter Phillips and Sainan Jin (snjin@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

Session CP10: Mechanism Design & Markets, 16:45-18:15, Room N501 Session Chair: Jinpeng Ma (jinpeng@crab.rutgers.edu), Rutgers University

[1] “Contests with Endogenous Entry” Qiang Fu, Qian Jiao (jiaoqian1983@hotmail.com), and Jingfeng Lu, Sun Yat-Sen University

[2] “Implementation of The Maximum Sustainable Yield under An Age-Structured Model” Zafer Kanik and Serkan Kucuksenel (kuserkan@metu.edu.tr), Middle East Technical University

[3] “Double Auction Mechanisms on Markovian Networks” Jinpeng Ma (jinpeng@crab.rutgers.edu), Xiaojing Xu, and Xiaoping Xie, Rutgers University

Session CP11: Monetary Economics, 16:45-18:15, Room D209 Session Chair: Chi-Young Choi (cychoi@uta.edu), University of Texas at Arlington

[1] “Sticky Prices and Costly Credit” Liang Wang (lwang2@hawaii.edu), Lucy Qian Liu, and Randall Wright, University of Hawaii Manoa

[2] “Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets” Eswar Prasad and Boyang Zhang (bz95@cornell.edu), Cornell University

[3] “Impact of Monetary Policy Regime Change on Regional Inflation Dynamics: A Sectoral Analysis” Chi-Young Choi (cychoi@uta.edu), University of Texas at Arlington

Session CP12: Credit Risk, 16:45-18:15, Room D210 Session Chair: Hongbiao Zhao (hongbiao.z@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “The Home Bias in Sovereign Ratings” Andreas Fuchs (mail@andreas-fuchs.net) and Kai Gehring, Heidelberg University

[2] “Credit Risk in A Large Banking System: Econometric Modeling and Empirics” Andre Lucas, Bernd Schwaab, and Xin Zhang (xzhang0125@gmail.com), Central Bank of Sweden

[3] “A Generalized Stochastic Contagion Model for Credit Risk” Angelos Dassios and Hongbiao Zhao (hongbiao.z@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session CP13: Microeconomics II, 16:45-18:15, Room D309 Session Chair: Luhang Wang (luhang.wang@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Decentralizability of Multi-Agency Contracting with Bayesian Implementation” Yu Chen (yourchenyu@gmail.com), Nanjing University

[2] “Loyalty and Durability: Evidence from The Opening of The Toothpaste Tubes” Lemin Wu and Yuheng Zhao (henrybowen@163.com), Peking University

[3] “Quality, Input Choices and the Impact of VAT Rebate: Evidence from Chinese Exporters” Luhang Wang (luhang.wang@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session CP14: Economic Studies of Long-Term Impact, 16:45-18:15, Room D310 Session Chair: He Yang (caseyang718@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Shadow of The Past: The Impact of China’s Great Famine on Economic Behaviors” Miao Liu (ml3085@columbia.edu) and Mengshan Xu, Columbia University

[2] “Creative Industry and Transformation of Economic Structure” Na Zhao (nkzhaona@nankai.edu.cn), Nankai University

[3] “Dual Landownership as Tax Shelter: An Economic Analysis of Perpetual Lease” He Yang (caseyang718@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session MW02: Copula & Finance, 16:45-18:15, Room N118 Session Chair: Param Silvapulle (param.silvapulle@monash.edu), Monash University

[1] “Non-systematic Jump and Volatility Spread in the Option Market” PeiLin Hsieh (ph77@cornell.edu), Xiamen University

[2] “Evaluating Density Forecasts via the Copula Approach” Juan Lin (rmilj@nus.edu.sg) and Ximing Wu, National University of Singapore

[3] “Estimation of Non-parametric Copula and Forecasting of Conditional Value at Risk” Song Li, Jiti Gao, and Param Silvapulle (param.silvapulle@monash.edu), Monash University

18:30-20:30 Dinner

Thursday, June 26

Keynote Session V: 08:30-09:15, Room N402 Session Chair: Farshid Vahid (farshid.vahid@monash.edu), Monash University

“Individual Heterogeneity, Nonlinear Budget Sets, and Taxable Income” Whitney Newey (wnewey@mit.edu), Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Keynote Session VI: 09:15-10:00, Room N402 Session Chair: Soohong Chew (ecscsh@nus.edu.sg), National University of Singapore

“Epistemic Game Theory” Adam Brandenburger (abranden@stern.nyu.edu), New York University

Parallel Sessions (10:30-12:00) 10:30-12:00 Invited Sessions IP09-IP12 10:30-12:00 Contributed Sessions CP15-CP21

10:30-12:00 Monash-WISE Workshop Session MW03

Session IP09: Panel Data Models II, 10:30-12:00, Room N203 Session Chair: Haiqiang Chen (hqchen2009@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Set Identification of The Censored Quantile Regression Model for Short Panels with Fixed Effects” Tong Li and Tatsushi Oka (oka@nus.edu.sg), National University of Singapore

[2] “The Cause of China’s Great Leap Famine Revisited: Using Panel Data Approach for Program Evaluation” Ying Fang, James Kung, and Yang Yang (pdshuimu@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[3] “Statistical Inference for Single Index Panel Data Models” Liping Zhu (zhu.liping@mail.shufe.edu.cn), Jinhong You, and Qunfang Xu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Session IP10: Microeconomics III, 10:30-12:00, Room N303 Session Chair: Zeng-Hua Lu (Zen.Lu@unisa.edu.au), University of South Australia

[1] “Investment Cash Flow Sensitivity and Effect of Managers’ Ownership - Panel Data Evidence from Listed Companies of China” Yuanyao Ding (dingyuanyao@nbu.edu.cn) and Xu Qian, Ningbo University

[2] “Information Transmission between U.S. and China Index Futures Markets: An A-DCC GARCH Approach” Yang Hou (houyy004@mymail.unisa.edu.au) and Steven Li, University of South Australia

[3] “Child Disability, Welfare Payments, Marital Status and Mothers' Labor Supply” Zeng-Hua Lu (Zen.Lu@unisa.edu.au) and Alec Zuo, University of South Australia

Session IP11: Chinese Economy II, 10:30-12:00, Room N302 Session Chair: Guiying Laura Wu (guiying.wu@ntu.edu.sg), Nanyang Technological

University

[1] “Rusticated Youth: Tough Early Adulthood and Health” Yi Lu (justinly6@gmail.com), National University of Singapore

[2] “Understanding Firms in Transition Economies: China and Central-Eastern Europe Compared” Byung-Yeon Kim, Jin Wang (sojinwang@ust.hk), and Cheng-Gang Xu, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[3] “Capital Misallocation in Chinese Manufacturing: Financial Frictions or Policy Distortions?” Guiying Laura Wu (guiying.wu@ntu.edu.sg) and Chanbora Ek, Nanyang Technological University

Session IP12: The Financial Market and Macro Finance, 10:30-12:00, Room N301 Session Chair: Zhaoyong Zhang (zhaoyong.zhang@ecu.edu.au), Edith Cowan University

[1] “Dynamic Correlations of The Mainland Chinese and Hong Kong Stock Markets: Evidence from Regime Switching DCC-GARCH Models” Yanlin Shi (yanlin.shi@anu.edu.au) and Kin-Yip Ho, The Australian National University

[2] “Limit Theory for Multivariate Linear Diffusion Estimation” Xiaohu Wang (xiaohu.wang@cuhk.edu.hk), Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “The Exchange Value of RMB and China’s Trade Balance” Zhaoyong Zhang (zhaoyong.zhang@ecu.edu.au) and Kiyotaka Sato, Edith Cowan University

Session CP15: Weak IV, 10:30-12:00, Room N401 Session Chair: Shu Shen (shushen@ucdavis.edu), University of California, Davis

[1] “Adaptive Elastic Net GMM Estimator with Many Invalid Moment Conditions: A Simultaneous Model and Moment Selection” Mehmet Caner, Xu Han (xuhan25@cityu.edu.hk), and Yoonserok Lee, City University of Hong Kong

[2] “Weak Inference for Unstable Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models” Naijing Huang (huang.naijing@gmail.com), Boston College

[3] “Multiple Testing and Breaking The Weak Instrument Curse with Big Data” Shu Shen (shushen@ucdavis.edu) and Jiaying Gu, University of California, Davis

Session CP16: Econometric Modelling, 10:30-12:00, Room N406 Session Chair: Yoshitsugu Kitazawa (kitazawa@ip.kyusan-u.ac.jp), Kyushu Sangyo

University

[1] “Estimation of Threshold Autoregressive Conditional Interval Models” Yuying Sun (kfsyj2007@126.com), Ai Han, Wei Yang, Yongmiao Hong, and Shouyang Wang, Chinese Academy of Sciences

[2] “Maximum Likelihood Estimation of A Spatial Autoregressive Tobit Model” Xingbai Xu (xu.510@osu.edu) and Lung-Fei Lee, The Ohio State University

[3] “Consistent Estimation for The Full-Fledged Fixed Effects Zero-Inflated Poisson Model” Yoshitsugu Kitazawa (kitazawa@ip.kyusan-u.ac.jp), Kyushu Sangyo University

Session CP17: Contracting and Mechanism, 10:30-12:00, Room N501 Session Chair: Haibo Xu (haiboxu@wustl.edu), Fudan University

[1] “Optimal Suspension in a Model of Dynamic Lending with Private Information” Jie Luo (luojiefuture@gmail.com) and Cheng Wang, Fudan University

[2] “Optimal Dynamic Contracting with Moral Hazard and outside Opportunities” Cheng Wang and Youzhi Yang (youzhi.yang@gmail.com), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Learning, Belief Manipulation and Optimal Relationship Termination” Haibo Xu (haiboxu@wustl.edu), Fudan University

Session CP18: Growth, Fiscal Policy and Miscellaneous, 10:30-12:00, Room D209 Session Chair: Tsuyoshi Shinozaki (shinozaki@tscc.tohoku-gakuin.ac.jp), Tohoku-Gakuin

Univrsity

[1] “Fiscal Spillovers in The Euro Area” Fabio Canova, Matteo Ciccarelli, and Pietro Dallari (pietro.dallari@gmail.com), Universitat Pompeu Fabra

[2] “Heavy Industry Priority and the Endogenous Formation of Centrally Planned Economic System” Mouhua Liao (Mouhualiao@gmail.com) and Justin Yifu Lin, Xiamen University

[3] “Population Growth and The Transfer Paradox in An Overlapping Generations Model” Kojun Hamada, Tsuyoshi Shinozaki (shinozaki@tscc.tohoku-gakuin.ac.jp), and Mitsuyoshi Yanagihara, Tohoku-Gakuin Univrsity

Session CP19: Financial Econometrics II, 10:30-12:00, Room D210 Session Chair: Feng Yao (feng.yao@mail.wvu.edu), West Virginia University

[1] “On The Measurement of Economic Tail Risk” Steven Kou and Xianhua Peng (maxhpeng@ust.hk), Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

[2] “A GARCH-HAR Model with Realized Volatility” Zhixiang Xu and Hua Zhao (Hzhxmu@163.com), Xiamen University

[3] “Nonparametric Estimation of Conditional Value-At-Risk and Expected Shortfall Based on Extreme Value Theory” C. Martins-Filho, Feng Yao (feng.yao@mail.wvu.edu), and M. Torero, West Virginia University

Session CP20: Migration and Aging, 10:30-12:00, Room D309 Session Chair: Jongsay Yong (jongsay@unimelb.edu.au), University of Melbourne

[1] “How Those Women Are Left Behind? Collective Labor Supply of Migrant Households in China” Xuechao Qian (janexuechao@hotmail.com), The University of Hong Kong

[2] “Rapid Aging and Pension Reform: The Case of China” Hui He (he.hui@mail.shufe.edu.cn), Lei Ning, and Dongming Zhu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] Cream Skimming and Hospital Transfers in A Mixed Public-Private System Terence C. Cheng, John Haisken-Denew, and Jongsay Yong (jongsay@unimelb.edu.au), University of Melbourne

Session CP21: Comparing Policy Effects across Chinese Regions, 10:30-12:00, Room D310 Session Chair: Junfu Zhang (juzhang@clarku.edu), Clark University

[1] “The Impact of Market Access on Income and Inequality in Rural China: An IV-Quantile Analysis” Zhaoyang Hou (houz@georgetown.edu) and Daniel Westbrook, Georgetown University

[2] “Who Pays Gasoline Tax in China? Based on A Panel Data Approach for Program Evaluation” Bo Zhou (bozhou98@gmail.com), University of International Business and Economics

[3] “Understanding Floor-Area-Ratio Restrictions on Urban Land Development in China” Shihe Fu, Yizhen Gu, and Junfu Zhang (juzhang@clarku.edu), Clark University

Session MW03: Time Series & Forecasting, 10:30-12:00, Room N118 Session Chair: Michael Fan (michaelqfan@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Specification Testing in Structural Nonparametric Cointegration” Chaohua Dong and Jiti Gao (jiti.gao@monash.edu), Monash University

[2] “Forecasting with EC-VARMA Models” Geroge Athanasopoulos, Don Poskitt, Farshid Vahid (farshid.vahid@monash.edu) and Wenying Yao, Monash University

[3] “Estimating a Large System of Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Using Penalized Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation with Applications on Asset Returns” Michael Fan (michaelqfan@gmail.com) and Bibo Jiang, Xiamen University

12:00-14:00 Lunch

Keynote Session VII: 14:00-14:45, Room N402 Session Chair: Cheng Wang (wangcheng@fudan.edu.cn), Fudan University

“Matching Models and Data: Recent Progress” Salanie Bernard (bs2237@columbia.edu), Columbia University

Keynote Session VIII: 14:45-15:30, Room N402 Session Chair: Arthur Lewbel (lewbel@bc.edu), Boston College

“Instrumental Variables Methods for Discrete Data” Andrew Chesher (andrew.chesher@ucl.ac.uk), University College London

15:30-16:45 Coffee Break & Poster Session II

Coffee Break: Section N (the 2nd, 3rd and 5th floor), yard of Section D (or the Hallway of the 2nd floor between Section C and Section D)

Poster Session II: 16:00-16:45, Hallway of the 4th floor at Section N

[1] “Moving Ahead by Thinking Backwards: Cognitive Skills, Personality, and Economic Preferences in Collegiate Success”

Stephen Burks (svburks@morris.umn.edu), University of Minnesota, Morris

[2] “Finite Sample Performance of A Minimum Distance Estimator under Weak Instruments”

Tak Wai Chau (zhou.dewei@mail.shufe.edu.cn), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Venture or Safety? Retirement and Portfolio Choice”

Guodong Chen (gdchen@umich.edu), University of Michigan

[4] “A Case Study of the Effectiveness of Agricultural Subsidies Policies: Theory and Evidence from Huangpi District, Hubei, China”

Sanpan Chen (chensanpan7332@163.com), Huazhong University of Science and Technology

[5] “Impact of Population Growth Andone Child Policy on Economic Growth of China”

Qilei Fang (zy07602@nottingham.edu.cn), The University of Nottingham Ningbo China

[6] “Asymmetric Volatility Spillovers between UK Regional Worker Flows and Vacancies”

Deborah Gefang (dg171@le.ac.uk), University of Leicester

[7] “Toward an Understanding of Prosocial Preferences through “Citizen-soldier” Training”

Bing Jiang (jiangb@vmi.edu), Virginia Military Institute

[8] “Relative Performance Prizes and Dynamic Incentives: Theory and Evidence from Best-of-N Contests”

Xiandeng Jiang (xjiang2@niu.edu), Northern Illinois University

[9] “Asymptotic Normality of Estimators for Partially Linear Varying Coefficient Errors-in-Variables Models”

Chuan-Hua Wei (chweisd@163.com), Minzu University of China

[10] “Understanding Fiscal Limits and Debt in the Developing Economies of Central America and the Caribbean”

Allan Wright (wright@cemla.org), Center for Latin American Monetary Studies and Central Bank of Barbados

[11] “Modified Principal Factor Method with Iteration”

Yongjia Xu (yjxu@gdufe.edu.cn), Guangdong University of Finance and Economics

[12] “Federal and State Public Education Expenditures, Human Capital Accumulation, and Vertical Fiscal Transfers”

Mitsuyoshi Yanagihara (yanagi@soec.nagoya-u.ac.jp), Nagoya University

[13] “Belief-Based Information Preference, and A Model of Informed Trading”

Suxiu Yu (yu.suxiu@gmail.com), Toulouse School of Economics

Session IP13: Labor Economics, 16:45-18:15, Room N203 Session Chair: Junsen Zhang (jszhang@cuhk.edu.hk), Chinese University of Hong Kong

[1] “Neighborhood Interactions and School Choice: Evidence from The New York City” Weiwei Hu (weiwei.hu@duke.edu), Duke University

[2] “Can Money ‘Buy’ Schooling Achievement? Evidence from Urban China” Guochang Zhao (gc_zhao@foxmail.com), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[3] “An Incentive Model of The Children’S Human Capital Investment” Andy Chung and Junsen Zhang (jszhang@cuhk.edu.hk), Chinese University of Hong Kong

Session IP14: Microeconomics IV, 16:45-18:15, Room N303 Session Chair: Zhijie Xiao (zhijie.xiao@bc.edu), Boston College

[1] “A Classification of Bargaining Solutions by Evolutionary Origin” Sung-Ha Hwang and Jonathan Newton (jonathan.newton@sydney.edu.au), University of Sydney

[2] “Incentives for Research Agents: Optimal Contracts and Implementation” Yaping Shan (yaping.shan@adelaide.edu.au), University of Adelaide

[3] “Networks and Favor Exchange Norms under Stochastic Costs” Seungmoon Choi, Virginie Masson (virginie.masson@adelaide.edu.au), Angus Moore, and Mandar Oak, The University of Adelaide

Session IP15: Chinese Economy in Globalization Era: Trade and FDI, 16:45-18:15, Room N302

Session Chair: Faqin Lin (linfaqin@126.com), Central University of Finance and Economics

[1] “Research Collaborations between Chinese and US Scientists and Engineers: A New Special Relationship?” Richard Freeman and Wei Huang (weihuang@fas.harvard.edu), Harvard University

[2] “International Trade and Internal Migration: Labor Market Effects of Exports in China” Zheng Xu (zxu@law.harvard.edu), Harvard University

[3] “How Do Importers Respond to The 'Dalai Lama Effect'? Finding The Devil in The Firm-Level Detail” Faqin Lin (linfaqin@126.com), Cui Hua, and Andreas Fuchs, Central University of Finance and Economics

Session IP16: Semiparametric Panel Data Models, 16:45-18:15, Room N301 Session Chair: Liangjun Su (ljsu@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

[1] “Binary Response Correlated Random Coefficient Panel Data Models” Yichen Gao, Cong Li, and Zhongwen Liang (zliang3@albany.edu), University at Albany, Suny

[2] “Discontinuous Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Models” Pavel Cizek and Weining Wang (wangwein@cms.hu-berlin.de), Humboldt University at Berlin

[3] “Semiparametric Estimation of Partially Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models with

Fixed Effects” Liangjun Su and Yonghui Zhang (yonghui.zhang@hotmail.com), Renmin University of China

Session CP22: Time Series I, 16:45-18:15, Room N401 Session Chair: Bin Wang (wangbin81@sjtu.edu.cn), Shanghai Jiaotong University

[1] “Testing for Strict Stationarity of Time Series Processes” Yongmiao Hong, Xia Wang (wxia820@163.com), and Shouyang Wang, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

[2] “A Powerful Test for Changing Trends in Time Series” Jilin Wu (rainforest1061@gmail.com) and Zhijie Xiao, Shandong University

[3] “Nonparametric Estimation of Jump Diffusion Models” Joon Y. Park and Bin Wang (wangbin81@sjtu.edu.cn), Shanghai Jiaotong University

Session CP23: Topics in Economics, 16:45-18:15, Room N406 Session Chair: Xiaoyi Han (han.293@buckeyemail.osu.edu), The Ohio State University

[1] “A Mixed Frequency Macro-Finance Term Structure Model” Tingguo Zheng, Yuhuang Shang (jnuyuhuang@163.com), and Kai Xia, Xiamen University

[2] “An Experimental Comparison of Reserve Price Auctions and Auctions with Renegotiation” Jason Shachat and Lijia Tan (ljtan.wise@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[3] “Bayesian Estimation of A Spatial Autoregressive Model with An Unobserved Endogenous Spatial Weight Matrix and Unobserved Factors” Xiaoyi Han (han.293@buckeyemail.osu.edu), The Ohio State University

Session CP24: Asymmetric Information, 16:45-18:15, Room N501 Session Chair: Ernest Lai (kwl409@lehigh.edu), Lehigh University

[1] “Why 'I Will Be A Better Person for You' Is A Lie” Jiemai Wu (jiemaiwu@wustl.edu), Washington University in St. Louis

[2] “Social Interactions under Incomplete Information with Heterogeneous Expectations” Chao Yang (waterwavewit1084@163.com) and Lung-Fei Lee, Ohio State University

[3] “Eliciting Private Information with Noise: The Case of Randomized Response” Andreas Blume, Ernest Lai (kwl409@lehigh.edu) and Wooyoung Lim, Lehigh University

Session CP25: Macroeconomics II, 16:45-18:15, Room D209 Session Chair: Jang-Ting Guo (guojt@ucr.edu), University of California, Riverside

[1] “The Dynamics of Hours Worked and Technology” Cristiano Cantore, Filippo Ferroni, and Miguel Leon-Ledesma (m.a.leon-ledesma@kent.ac.uk), University of Kent

[2] “What Measures Chinese Monetary Policy?”

Rongrong Sun (rongrong.sun@nottingham.edu.cn), University of Nottingham Ningbo China

[3] “Sectoral Composition of Government Spending and Macroeconomic (In) Stability” Juin-Jen Chang, Jang-Ting Guo (guojt@ucr.edu), Jhy-Yuan Shieh, and Wei-Neng Wang, University of California, Riverside

Session CP26: Financial Econometrics III, 16:45-18:15, Room D210 Session Chair: Tae-Hwy Lee (taelee@ucr.edu), The University of California, Riverside

[1] “Input-Output Linkage and Aggregate Volatility: A Dynamic Factor Model Approach” Liang Chen (liang.chen@economics.ox.ac.uk), University of Oxford

[2] “Testing for Self-Excitation in Jumps” H. Peter Boswijk, Roger J. A. Laeven, and Xiye Yang (X.Yang@uva.nl), University of Amsterdam

[3] “Density and Risk Forecast of Financial Returns Using Decomposition and Maximum Entropy” Tae-Hwy Lee (taelee@ucr.edu), Zhou Xi, and Ru Zhang, The University of California, Riverside

Session CP27: Regional Heterogeneity and Economic Consequences, 16:45-18:15, Room D309

Session Chair: Jennifer T. Lai (econlai@gmail.com), Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

[1] “Lineage-Based Heterogeneity and Cooperative Behavior in Rural China” Quqiong He (quqiong.he@gmail.com) and Ying Pan, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Growing Unequal: Why Do Bigger Cities Have Higher Income Disparity in China?” Binkai Chen, Dan Liu (liu.dan@mail.shufe.edu.cn), and Ming Lu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Consumption Risk Sharing and Self-Insurance Across Provinces in China: 1952-2008” Kenneth S. Chan, Jennifer T. Lai (econlai@gmail.com), and Isabel K. M. Yan, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies

Session CP28: Panel Data Models III, 16:45-18:15, Room D310 Session Chair: Jeremy Fox (jeremyfox@gmail.com), University of Michigan

[1] “Early Childhood Education and Care and Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Ability in Japan Child Panel Survey 2010-2012” Hideo Akabayashi (hakab@econ.keio.ac.jp), Chizuru Shikishima, and Jun Yamashita, Keio University

[2] “Spatial Panel with Interactive Effects” Wei Shi (shiweiemail@gmail.com) and Lung-Fei Lee, The Ohio State University

[3] “Identification of Discrete Choice Models for Bundles and Binary Games” Jeremy Fox (jeremyfox@gmail.com) and Natalia Lazzati, University of Michigan

Session MW04: Experimental Econometrics & Game Theory, 16:45-18:15, Room N118 Session Chair: Jason Shachat (jason.shachat@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Generalized Maximum Entropy Estimation of Discrete Sequential Move Games of Perfect Information” Brett Graham (brett.d.graham@gmail.com) and Wang Yafeng, Xiamen University

[2] “Motives and Incentives in Crowdsourcing” Kevin J. Boudreau, Karim R. Lakhani, Annika Mueller (amueller.wise.xmu@gmail.com), and Michael Menietti, Xiamen University

[3] “Pure Reciprocity under Alternative Procurement Mechanisms” Jason Shachat (jason.shachat@gmail.com) and Weiwei Zheng, Xiamen University

18:30-20:30 Dinner

Friday, June 27

Session IP17: Time Series II, 08:30-10:00, Room N203 Session Chair: Degui Li (degui.li@york.ac.uk), University of York

[1] “A Unified Approach to Testing Stability of Conditional Distributions and Conditional Moments” Bin Chen (bchen8@mail.rochester.edu) and Liquan Huang, University of Rochester

[2] “Dynamics of Natural Rate of Unemployment: A Structural Forward and Backward Looking Approach” Wei Cui (w.cui@ucl.ac.uk), Wolfgang K. Härdle, and Weining Wang, University College London

[3] “Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression with Endogeneity and Long Memory” Qiying Wang (qiying@maths.usyd.edu.au) and Peter C. B. Phillips, The University of Sydney

Session IP18: Microeconomics V, 08:30-10:00, Room N303 Session Chair: Dazhong Wang (wangdazhongab@163.com), Shanghai University of

Finance and Economics

[1] “Hybrid Mechanisms for Car Licenses Allocation with Bidders' Budget Constraints” Jianxin Rong (rjx666@126.com), Ning Sun, and Dazhong Wang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “A New Pespective on School Choice with Consent” Qianfeng Tang and Jingsheng Yu (jingshengyu1987@gmail.com), Shanghai University

of Finance and Economics [3] “Simple Shill-Bid-Proof Mediated Auction Design”

Rukai Gong, Ning Sun, and Dazhong Wang (wangdazhongab@163.com), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Session IP19: Trade and China, 08:30-10:00, Room N302 Session Chair: Cheryl Xiaoning Long (cxlong.wise@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Revisiting The Linder Hypothesis with Production Fragmentation” Xiaoping Chen (xpchen@ntu.edu.sg), Yi Lu, and Yunong Li, Nanyang Technological University

[2] “Trade Cost and Corruption: Evidence from China” Ying Ge (yige60@vip.sina.com), Jie Mao, Huiwen Lai, and Susan Zhu, University of International Business and Economics

[3] “Innovation and Export Growth in China” Feifei Fang and Cheryl Xiaoning Long (cxlong.wise@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session IP20: Health Economics I, 08:30-10:00, Room N301 Session Chair: Xueyan Zhao (xueyan.zhao@monash.edu), Monash University

[1] “The Relationship between Well-Being and Commuting Re-Visited: Does The Choice of Methodology Matter?” Andy Dickerson, Arne Risa Hole (a.r.hole@sheffield.ac.uk), and Luke Munford, University of Sheffield

[2] “What's The Point of Class? Random Coefficient and Latent Class Models to Identify Types” Stefanie Schurer (stefanie.schurer@sydney.edu.au), Frank Windmeijer, and Audrey Laporte, University of Sydney

[3] “Partial Identification of Treatment Effect in Binary Outcome Models with Endogenous Treatment - An Application to Effect of Health Insurance on Dental” Chuhui Li, D.S. Poskitt, and Xueyan Zhao (xueyan.zhao@monash.edu), Monash University

Session CP29: Applied Econometrics I, 08:30-10:00, Room N401 Session Chair: Hon Ho Kwok (kwokhh@hku.hk), The University of Hong Kong

[1] “Testing Covariates in High Dimension Linear Regression with Latent Factors” Kuangnan Fang (xmufkn@163.com), Xiamen University

[2] “Estimation of Varying-coefficient Heterogeneous Panel Data Models with Cross-sectional Dependence” Zongwu Cai, Ying Fang, and Qiuhua Xu (qiuhua814@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[3] “Identification Problems in Linear Social Interaction Models: A General Analysis Based on Matrix Spectral Decompositions” Hon Ho Kwok (kwokhh@hku.hk), The University of Hong Kong

Session CP30: Matching and Assignments, 08:30-10:00, Room N406 Session Chair: Kai Ou (ko640@nyu.edu), New York University

[1] “Assignment Games with Externalities and Matching-Based Cournot Competition” Bo Chen (lemonbc@gmail.com), University of Bonn

[2] “On Two Competing Affirmative Actions under Deferred Acceptance Algorithm” Yun Liu (yliueco@gmail.com), Copenhagen Business School

[3] “I Deserve What I Own: Economic Status and Ethical Voting in a Real-effort Experiment” Kai Ou (ko640@nyu.edu), New York University

Session CP31: Market Design, 08:30-10:00, Room N501 Session Chair: Zhe Li (lizhezhe@hotmail.com), Shanghai University of Finance and

Economics

[1] “Optimal Prize Rationing in All Pay Contest with Incomplete Information” Xuyuan Liu (liuxuyuan@nus.edu.sg) and Jingfeng Lu, National University of Singapore

[2] “Contract Design for A Network of Time-Inconsistent Consumers” Fei Shi (fshi@sjtu.edu.cn), Yong Sui, and Jianxia Yang, Shanghai Jiaotong University

[3] “Emission Tax or Standard? A General Equilibrium Analysis” Zhe Li (lizhezhe@hotmail.com) and Shouyong Shi, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

Session CP32: Financial Friction and Macroeconomics, 08:30-10:00, Room D209 Session Chair: Dan Lu (danlu@rochester.edu) and Yan Bai, University of Rochester

[1] “Financial Frictions and Firm Dynamics” Paul Bergin, Ling Feng (feng.ling@mail.shufe.edu.cn), and Ching-Yi Lin, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Financial Development and Aggregate Savings Rates: A Hump-Shaped Relationship” Pengfei Wang, Lifang Xu (tsuilf@gmail.com), and Zhiwei Xu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Can Financial Frictions Explain China's Foreign Reserve Puzzle: A Firm Level Analysis” Dan Lu (danlu@rochester.edu) and Yan Bai, University of Rochester

Session CP33: Macro Finance I, 08:30-10:00, Room D210 Session Chair: Linlin Niu (linlin.niu@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Extrapolation Bias in Economic Fundamentals and The Aggregate Stock Market” Liyuan Cui (lc568@cornell.edu), Cornell University

[2] “Global Currency Misalignments, Crash Sensitivity, and Moment Risk Premia” Huichou Huang (h.huang.1@research.gla.ac.uk), Ronald Macdonald, and Yang Zhao, University of Glasgow

[3] “A Flattening Power on the US Yield Curve: The RMB Appreciation Pressure”

Shicheng Huang and Linlin Niu (linlin.niu@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session CP34: Optimal Contract, 08:30-10:00, Room D309 Session Chair: Jieying Hong (hongjieying@gmail.com), ESSEC Business School

[1] “Pay What Your Dad Paid: Commitment and Price Rigidity in The Market for Life Insurance” Radek Paluszynski and Pei Cheng Yu (yuxxx680@umn.edu), University of Minnesota

[2] “Naked Exclusion through Exclusive Contracts” Bo Shen (shenbopku@gmail.com), National University of Singapore

[3] “Optimal Financial Contracting in Strategic Alliances” Jieying Hong (hongjieying@gmail.com), ESSEC Business School

Session CP35: Labor Force Participation, 08:30-10:00, Room D310 Session Chair: Shu-Chen Chang (shu-chen@nfu.edu.tw), National Formosa University

[1] “Labor Force Participation, Worker Heterogeneity, and Business Cycle” Ran Gu (uctprgu@ucl.ac.uk), University College London and CeMMAP

[2] “Endogenous Labor Participation and Involuntary Unemployment: An Estimated New Keynesian Model” Yuelin Liu (yuelin.liu@unsw.edu.au), University of New South Wales

[3] “Openness and Environmental Pollution” Shu-Chen Chang (shu-chen@nfu.edu.tw) and Wan-Tran Huang, National Formosa University

Session MW05: Nonparametric Econometrics I, 08:30-10:00, Room N118 Session Chair: Ying Fang (yifst1@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “Semiparametric Empirical Bayes Estimator of Localized Bandwidth in Kernel Density Estimation” Tingting Cheng (tingting.cheng@monash.edu), Jiti Gao, and Xibin Zhang, Monash University

[2] “Feature Selection for Varying Coefficient Models with Ultrahigh Dimensional Covariates” Jingyuan Liu (jingyuan1230@gmail.com), Runze Li, and Rongling Wu, Xiamen University

[3] “Semiparametric Inference for Instrumental Variables Models with Partially Varying Coefficients” Zongwu Cai, Ying Fang (yifst1@gmail.com), Ming Lin, and Jia Su, Xiamen University

Session IP21: Panel Data Econometrics with Cross-Sectional Dependence, 10:30-12:00, Room N203

Session Chair: Qu Feng (qfeng@ntu.edu.sg), Nanyang Technological University

[1] “Estimation and Inference for The Spatial Threshold Model” Badi H. Baltagi, Ying Deng (econdy@163.com), and Chihwa Kao, University of International Business and Economics

[2] “Testing for Sphericity in Two-Way Error Components Panel Model” Guangyu Mao (gymao@sina.cn), Beijing Jiaotong University

[3] “Estimation of Heterogeneous Panels with Structural Breaks” Badi Baltagi, Qu Feng (qfeng@ntu.edu.sg), and Chihwa Kao, Nanyang Technological University

Session IP22: Nonstandard Inference, 10:30-12:00, Room N303 Session Chair: Yuanyuan Wan (yuanyuan.wan@utoronto.ca), University of Toronto

[1] “Inference on Moment Inequalities with Unknown Functions” Shengjie Hong (econhoo@gmail.com), Tsinghua University

[2] “A Smoothed Maximum Score Estimator for Multinomial Discrete Choice Models” Jin Yan (jyan@cuhk.edu.hk), The Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “Imposing Monotonicity in First Price Auctions: Estimation and Testing” Luo Yao and Yuanyuan Wan (yuanyuan.wan@utoronto.ca), University of Toronto

Session IP23: Topics in Econometrics, 10:30-12:00, Room N302 Session Chair: Shakeeb Khan (shakeebk@duke.edu), Duke University

[1] “Estimation and Testing for Threshold Effects in Regression Models with Unknown Functional Forms” Haiqiang Chen (hqchen2009@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[2] “A Bayesian Analysis for Regime Shift Model with Nonparametric Regime Switching Mechanism” Haiqiang Chen, Yingxing Li, Ming Lin, and Yanli Zhu (zhuyanli_921@126.com), Xiamen University

[3] “On the Informational Content of Special Regressors in Cross sectional and Panel Data Discrete Response Models” S. Chen, Shakeeb Khan (shakeebk@duke.edu), and X. Tang, Duke University

Session IP24: Mathematical Economics, 10:30-12:00, Room N301 Session Chair: Yeneng Sun (ynsun@nus.edu.sg), National University of Singapore

[1] “Ex Ante Efficient Auctions with Bi-Dimensional Private Information on Values and

Entry Costs” Jingfeng Lu (ecsljf@nus.edu.sg) and Yeneng Sun, National University of Singapore

[2] “On Pure-Strategy Equilibria in Games with Correlated Information” M. Ali Khan and Yongchao Zhang (yongchao@mail.shufe.edu.cn), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Stationary Markov Perfect Equilibria in Discounted Stochastic Games” Wei He and Yeneng Sun (ynsun@nus.edu.sg), National University of Singapore

Session CP36: Time Series III, 10:30-12:00, Room N401 Session Chair: Giuseppe Cavaliere (giuseppe.cavaliere@unibo.it), University of Bologna

[1] “Testing for A Nonlinear Unit Root in The Quantile Nonlinear Autoregressive Framework” Haiqi Li (lihaiqi00@hnu.edu.cn) and Sung Y. Park, Hunan University

[2] “A Simple and Powerful Extension to Nielsen's Tuning Parameter Free Unit Root Test” Jijie Zhao (jz397@cornell.edu), Cornell University

[3] “Inference on Co-Integration Parameters in Heteroskedastic Vector Autoregressions” H. Peter Boswijk, Giuseppe Cavaliere (giuseppe.cavaliere@unibo.it), Anders Rahbek, and A.M. Robert Taylor, University of Bologna

Session CP37: Microeconomics VI, 10:30-12:00, Room N406 Session Chair: Yun Wang (yunwang@xmu.edu.cn), Xiamen University

[1] “Comparing Open-Loop and Feedback Nash Equilibria in The Lab” Chen Ling (lingchen@swufe.edu.cn), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Social Networks and Internal Migration in The United States” Jingjing Ye (jingjingye@swufe.edu.cn) and Daniel Millimet, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

[3] “An Experimental Investigation on Belief and Higher-order Belief in The Centipede Games” Yun Wang (yunwang@xmu.edu.cn), Xiamen University

Session CP38: Trust and Reciprocity, 10:30-12:00, Room N501 Session Chair: Yi Zhang (yizhang@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

[1] “Myths Can Alter Reality: Victors, Villains and Victims in The Trust Game” Roland Cheo and Lin Jing (jing@coll.mpg.de), MPI for Research on Collective Goods

[2] "Estimating The Production Elasticity of Labor: A Partial Identification Approach" Tadashi Sonoda (sonoda@soec.nagoya-u.ac.jp) and Ashok Mishra, Nagoya University

[3] “Reputation Building through Failure” Yi Zhang (yizhang@smu.edu.sg) and Huan Wang, Singapore Management University

Session CP39: Housing Economics, 10:30-12:00, Room D209 Session Chair: Yufei Yuan (yyuanwise@163.com), Xiamen University

[1] “On The Impact of Rare Housing Disasters” Shaofeng Xu (sxu@bankofcanada.ca), Bank of Canada

[2] “An Empirical Analysis of Credit Ratings Game in Subprime Mortgage-Backed Security Market” Qi Sun (qi.sun82@hotmail.com), Shanjun Li, and Wei Tan, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Housing Supply and Land Use Regulations: A Chinese Case Study” Yufei Yuan (yyuanwise@163.com), Xiamen University

Session CP40: Macro Finance II, 10:30-12:00, Room D210 Session Chair: Huanhuan Zheng (zheng@cuhk.edu.hk), The Chinese University of Hong

[1] “Exchange Rate Policy in China after The Financial Crisis: Estimation of the Time-Varying Exchange Rate Basket” Martin Siddiquiand and Jarko Fidrmuc (jarko.fidrmuc@zu.de), Zeppelin University Friedrichshafen and Charles University in Prague

[2] “Product Market Threats and Stock Crash Risk” Si Li (sli@wlu.ca) and Xintong Zhan, Wilfrid Laurier University

[3] “Dynamic Global Games: Asset Price Bubble and Depression” Huanhuan Zheng (zheng@cuhk.edu.hk), The Chinese University of Hong Kong

Session CP41: Public Economics, 10:30-12:00, Room D309 Session Chair: Hideya Kato (kato@nagoya-ku.ac.jp), Nagoya Keizai University

[1] “Public Domain” Julio Davila (julio.davila@uclouvain.be), Universite c. de Louvain

[2] “Comparing The Cost of A Carbon Tax in China and The United States” Richard T. Carson, Mark R. Jacobsen, and Antung Liu (antung@ckgsb.edu.cn), Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business

[3] “Federal and State Public Education Expenditures, Human Capital Accumulation, and Vertical Transfers” Hideya Kato (kato@nagoya-ku.ac.jp) and Mitsuyoshi Yanagihara, Nagoya Keizai University

Session CP42: Optimal Pricing, 10:30-12:00, Room D310 Session Chair: Takashi Hayashi (tkshhysh@gmail.com), University of Glasgow

[1] “Whose Trade Follows The Flag: The Economic Consequences of Bilateral Relation” Yi Zhou and Qin Chen (qinchen1986@hotmail.com), Fudan University

[2] “Induced Clean Technology Adoption and International Trade with Heterogeneous Firms” Jingbo Cui (jbcui2013@gmail.com), Wuhan University

[3] “Gains from Trade” Takashi Hayashi (tkshhysh@gmail.com) and Christopher P. Chambers, University of Glasgow

Session MW06: Econometrics in Macro & Micro, 10:30-12:00, Room N118 Session Chair: Heather Anderson (heather.anderson@monash.edu), Monash University

[1] “Macroeconomic Forecasting in Data-Rich World: Perspectives from Bayesian Variable Selection” George Athanasopoulos, Minfeng Deng, Anastasios Panagiotelis (anastasios.panagiotelis@monash.edu), and Farshid Vahid, Monash University

[2] “Employers’Age and Gender Preferences: Direct Evidence from Four Job Boards” Miguel Delgado Helleseter, Peter Kuhn, and Kailing Shen (kailing.shen@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[3] “The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Vector Autoregressive Framework” Taya Dumrongrittikul, Heather Anderson (heather.anderson@monash.edu), and Farshid Vahid, Monash University

12:00-14:00 Lunch

Keynote Session IX: 14:00-14:45, Room N402 Session Chair: Ho-Mou Wu (hmwu@nsd.pku.edu.cn), Peking University

“China's Rise and Structural Transformation in Africa: Ideas and Opportunities” Justin Lin (justinlin@nsd.pku.edu.cn), Peking University

Parallel Sessions (15:15-16:45) 15:15-16:45 Invited Sessions IP25-IP27 15:15-16:45 Contributed Sessions CP43-CP51

Session IP25: Inference for Panel and Spatial-temporal Data, 15:15-16:45, Room N203 Session Chair: Jia Chen (jia.chen@york.ac.uk), University of York

[1] “Semiparametric Models and Estimation for Nonlinear Regression of Irregularly Located Spatial Time-Series Data” Dawlah Al-Sulami, Zudi Lu (Z.Lu@soton.ac.uk), and Jun Zhu, University of Southampton

[2] “Determining The Number of Groups in Latent Panel Structures” Xun Lu and Liangjun Su (ljsu@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

[3] “Semiparametric GEE Analysis in Partially Linear Single-Index Models for Longitudinal Data” Jia Chen (jia.chen@york.ac.uk), Degui Li, Hua Liang, and Suojin Wang, University of York

Session IP26: Nonparametric Econometrics II, 15:15-16:45, Room N303 Session Chair: Zaichao Du (duzc@swufe.edu.cn), Southwestern University of Finance and

Economics

[1] “Modified Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines with Economic Application” Wei Lin (weilin_econ@163.com) and Aman Ullah, Capital University of Economics and Business

[2] “Nonparametric Additive Instrumental Variable Estimator: A Group Shrinkage Estimation Perspective” Michael Fan and Wei Zhong (wzhong.wise@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[3] “Nonparametric Bootstrap Tests for Independence of Generalized Errors” Zaichao Du (duzc@swufe.edu.cn), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics

Session IP27: Non- and Semi-Parametric Inference, 15:15-16:45, Room N302 Session Chair: Yundong Tu (yundong.tu@gsm.pku.edu.cn), Peking University

[1] “Estimation in Triangular Models with Binary Response under Quantile Restrictions” Jen-Che Liao (jccepd@gmail.com), Academia Sinica

[2] “Inference in Synthetic Control Approach: Generalization of Difference-in-Difference Estimation” Sangsoo Park (starpac@korea.ac.kr) and Beomsoo Kim, Korea University

[3] “Functional Moving Average Model with Application to Forecast Chinese CPI” Yundong Tu (yundong.tu@gsm.pku.edu.cn), Peking University

Session CP43: Applied Econometrics II, 15:15-16:45, Room N401 Session Chair: Heng Chen (chenh1207@hotmail.com), Bank of Canada

[1] “Comparing Predictive Accuracy and Model Combination Using Encompassing Test for Nested Quantile Models” Yan Ge (yge001@ucr.edu) and Tae Hwy Lee, University of California, Riverside

[2] “Root N-Consistency of The Intercept of A Binary Response Model under Tail Restrictions” Yichong Zhang and Lili Tan (tanlili@zju.edu.cn), Yunnan University

[3] “Sheep in Wolf's Clothing: Using Least Squares Loss Function for Quantile Estimation” Heng Chen (chenh1207@hotmail.com), Bank of Canada

Session CP44:Microeconomics VII, 15:15-16:45, Room N406 Session Chair: Yibai Yang (Yibai.Yang@nottingham.edu.cn), University of Nottingham

Ningbo China

[1] “Job Search, Liquidity Shock and Post Match Quality of Rural to Urban Migrants in China” Yuanyuan Chen and Zichen Deng (dengzichen@gmail.com), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[2] “Gender and Racial Peer Effects on Adolescents' Academic Performance and Smoking

Behaviors in Endogenous Networks” Chih-Sheng Hsieh (cshsieh@cuhk.edu.hk) and Xu Lin, Chinese University of Hong Kong

[3] “On The Optimality of Blocking Patents” Yibai Yang (Yibai.Yang@nottingham.edu.cn), University of Nottingham Ningbo China

Session CP45: Political Economics and Institutions, 15:15-16:45, Room N501 Session Chair: Huan Wang (hw276@nyu.edu), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

[1] “The Effects of Local Elections on National Military Spending: Theory and Evidence” Yufeng Sun (pkuskyfree@gmail.com), Yuke Li, and Liuchun Deng, Chinese University of Hong Kong

[2] “Local Finance and Local Growth: Macro and Micro Evidence from China” Chunyang Wang (cywangecon@gmail.com), Peking University

[3] “A Prospect Theory of Power Transition: Why Power Transition Does Not Imply War?” Huan Wang (hw276@nyu.edu) and Yi Zhang, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Session CP46: Political Economy, 15:15-16:45, Room D209 Session Chair: Xiaojia Bao (jacybao@gmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “From Coercion to Politics to Law: The Evolution of Property Rights Protection” Fali Huang (flhuang@smu.edu.sg), Singapore Management University

[2] “Effects of Exchange Rate Variations on Bilateral Trade with a Vehicle Currency: Evidence from China and Singapore” Guangpu Yang (guangpuyang@nus.edu.sg) and Qingyang Gu, National University of Singapore

[3] “Political Tournament Competition and Infrastructure Construction in China” Xiaojia Bao (jacybao@gmail.com), Xiamen University

Session CP47: Financial Econometrics IV, 15:15-16:45, Room D210 Session Chair: Diego Ronchetti (d.ronchetti@rug.nl), University of Groningen

[1] “Modelling Nonlinear Multivariate Diffusions: A Semiparametric Likelihood-Based Approach” Ruijun Bu (ruijunbu@liv.ac.uk) and Dennis Kristensen, University of Liverpool

[2] “Sovereign Debt, Real Interest Rate and Gold Pricing” Tao Lu (taoluu@gmail.com) and SihaiFang, Research Center of China Securities Regulatory Commission

[3] “Comparing Asset Pricing Models by The Conditional Hansen-Jagannathan Distance” Patrick Gagliardini and Diego Ronchetti (d.ronchetti@rug.nl), University of Groningen

Session CP48: Topics in Economics (in Chinese 中文场), 15:15-16:45, Room D309 Session Chair: Jianbao Chen (jbchen_65@hotmail.com), Xiamen University

[1] “中国政府 2008 年四万亿投资的实证研究: 一种基于菲利普斯稳定化理论的观点” Huiyu Jin (jinhy@xmu.edu.cn), Heng Cao, and Qingliang Fan, Xiamen University

[2] “融资约束与自愿性信息披露” Hongjun Wu (whjgrm@yahoo.com) and Zuoqing Guo, Xiamen University

[3] “罕见灾难风险和股市收益——基于我国个股横截面尾部风险的实证分析” Guojin Chen and Xiu Xu (spring_xux@163.com), Xiamen University

[4] “具有随机效应的空间自回归单指数面板模型的截面极大似然估计” Jianbao Chen (jbchen_65@hotmail.com) and Lin Sun, Xiamen University

Session CP49: Social Interaction and Coordination, 15:15-16:45, Room D310 Session Chair: Mingli Zheng (mlzheng@umac.mo), University of Macau

[1] “Communication, Leadership and Coordination Failure” Lu Dong (lu.dong@nottingham.ac.uk); Maria Montero, and Alex Possajennikov, Nottingham University

[2] “Language and Coordination: An Experimental Study” John Duffy, Ernest K. Lai, and Wooyoung Lim (wooyoung78.lim@gmail.com), Hong Kong University of Science of Technology

[3] “Distributive Justice and The Threshold Level of Resource in The Fair Resource Allocation” Mingli Zheng (mlzheng@umac.mo), Chong Wang, and Chaozheng Li, University of Macau

Session CP50:Industrial Organization, 15:15-16:45, Room N118 Session Chair: Chenhang Zeng (cz_sdu@163.com), Shandong University

[1] “Bundling and Nonlinear Pricing in Telecommunications” Yao Luo (luoyao@Live.com), University of Toronto

[2] “Optimal Nonlinear Pricing by A Monopolist with Information Ambiguity” Chong Wang (yb37353@umac.mo), Mingli Zheng, and Chaozheng Li, University of Macau

[3] “A Model of Advance Selling with Consumer Heterogeneity and Limited Capacity” X. Henry Wang and Chenhang Zeng (cz_sdu@163.com), Shandong University

Session CP51: Health Economics II, 15:15-16:45, Room N301 Session Chair: Chun-Yu Ho (chunyu.ho@sjtu.edu.cn), Shanghai Jiaotong University

[1] “Macroeconomic Implications of Long-Term Care Policies” Daniel Barczyk (daniel.barczyk@mcgill.ca) and Matthias Kredler, Mcgill University

[2] “Health Technology & Investment in Health: What Motive Drives Costs?” Hui He and Alberto Batinti (albertobatinti@yahoo.com), Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

[3] “Insuring Against Health Shocks with Self and Public Insurances: Evidence from China” Chun-Yu Ho (chunyu.ho@sjtu.edu.cn), Xin Li, and Qinghua Shi, Shanghai Jiaotong University

18:00-20:00 Dinner

2014CMES guide and program 0621A -...

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