Energy Resources and Earthquakes

Jer-Ming Chiu, Professor of Geophysics

CERI/Department of Earth Sciences

The University of Memphis

July 19, 2014

Modern World History can be considered as

a history of Earth Sciences

a history fighting for Energy Resources

center of the history -- petroleum

However, today’s center of international focuses on

“energy resources” have dramatically changed.

Overview

What “Energy Resources” are we talking about today?

Fossil -- Oil (Petroleum), Coal, Natural Gas

Renewable – Solar, Wind, Tidal, Geothermal, Hydraulic, Biofuels

Nuclear fission (breeder reactors) and nuclear fusion

Non-renewable – Nuclear (others), Oil, Coal, Natural Gas

Research on the exploration and development of these energy

resources are the focuses of today’s energy industries.

Among these energy resources,

Petroleum, Biofuels, Hydrogen -- transportations

Natural Gases, Biofuels, Geothermal – heating

Nuclear, Wind, Solar, Tidal, Hydraulic, Geothermal -- electricity

Over the entire human history, we depend mainly on the “burning”of fossil energy resources, i.e. oil, coal, natural gas, for lighting,

electricity, and other applications.

The problems we encountered with fossil energy include

• limited resources available only on certain areas – the reserve of

fossil energy is finite and limited. The more we un-earth it

today, the less it will be available for our future generation.

In addition, many wars between countries were due to fighting

for the demand on energy resources.

• significant environmental issues – the burning of fossil energy

releases mercury, methane, CO2, and other debris to the air that

create a significant environmental problem. It is getting worse

and its impacts have becoming a global issue now.

Predicted Global Fuel Usage for Electricity Generation by the International

Energy Institute

14,000

12,000

GWH

10,000

8,000

6,000

4,,000

2,000

2002 2030

Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Other alternative

Problems related to modern energy resources:

1. Instability where most oil is found, from the Persian Gulf to Nigeria

to Venezuela, makes this lifeline fragile.

2. Transport oil from production field to market places is getting more

difficult, e.g. from north slope of Alaska to US continent or to Japan.

3. Natural gas can be hard to transport and is prone to shortage.

4. We won’t run out of coal anytime soon, or the largely untapped

deposits of tar sands and oil shale. But it’s clear that the carbon

dioxide spewed by coal and other fossil fuels is warming up the

planet.

5. Energy conservation can stave off the day of reckoning, but in the

end you can’t conserve what you don’t have. At least, in personal

level, all of us can do something to conserve energy.

6. It is time to step up the search for the next great fuel for the hungry

engine of humankind. Is there such a fuel? The short answer is

“NO”.

7. Hydrogen-fueled cars may give the wrong impression. Hydrogen is

not a source of energy. It has to be freed before it is useful and that

costs more energy than the hydrogen gives back. It is still long way

to go before hydrogen-fueled engine becomes affordable,

acceptable, or economically feasible.

8. Fossil fuels have met the growing demand because they pack

millions of years of the sun’s energy into a compact form, but we

will not find their like again.

Alternatively, we turn

from “conventional” “unconventional”

from “non-renewable” “renewable”

and from

“large-scale” “small-scale operation”

to try to find an answer for today’s demand of energy

resources.

Solar: free energy, at a price

Wind: feast or famine

Biomass: farming your fuel

Nuclear power: still a contender

(1) Nuclear Fission

(2) Nuclear Fusion

Why is China pushing new nuclear power?

What is happening now (after Fukushima)?

The future of nuclear power in the US

Petroleum

What we know are

What are our options?

Coal

Advantages of Coal

Natural Gases

Advantages of Natural Gases

Geothermal

Enhanced geothermal system

1:Reservoir

2:Pump house

3:Heat exchanger

4:Turbine hall

5:Production well

6:Injection well

7:Hot water to district heating

8:Porous sediments

9:Observation well

10:Crystalline bedrock

How it works?

Hydraulic Energy

History

• Using flowing water to perform work is

nothing new

• Greeks, Romans and Chinese ground wheat

• Water wheels were used to mine ores and

fan bellows

Modern History• Discovery of

electricity really

fueled hydropower

• First hydroelectric

power plant was in

Appleton Wisconsin

in 1882

• Produced 12.5 kW

– Light the home of the

designer, the plant

itself and a nearby

building

– 250 lights

Engineering and Physics

• Water is stored behind

the dam, creating a

potential difference

• Water flows past a

turbine

• Turns generator

• Produces electricity

– Watts

P = rhrgk

Hydroelectric Power Plants

United States

• We have 80,000 dams but

only 3% produce electricity

• Largest is Grand Coulee

Dam in Washington

• We produce 96,000 MW

using conventional

hydropower

World Wide

Largest in the World• Three Gorges Dam

• 22.5 GW of electricity

• 34 turbines

• Cost $26 billion

• Almost 20 years to build

Largest in the United States

• Grand Coulee Dam

• Built in 1942

• Produces 6.8 GW of electricity

• $1.85 billion to build

Advantages

• Long-term renewable

• Flowing water is free

• Non-polluting*

• Flood control

• During drought, dam will

still have water

• 90% efficient

• Advanced technologies

which are adaptable to

change

• Multipurpose use

• Reliable and quick for

changes in public demand

• Low operating costs with

a projected lifespan of 50-

70 years

• Can develop in third world

countries

Disadvantages

Geological

• Sedimentation

• Built on or around

seismicity

• Landslides

• Methane emissions

Ecological

• Local fish migration

• Water Conditions

• Destruction and relocation

of local wildlife

Disasters• Dam breakage is considered largest man-made disasters

• Largest disaster was Banqiao Dam in 1975

• Government maintains that it was a 2000 year flood not poor engineering

– Designed to withstand a 1000 year flood

– More than a year’s rain fell in 24 hours

– August 6, a request to open the dam was rejected

– August 7, request was accepted but the telegrams failed to reach the dam

– In total 62 dams failed

Future?

• Unconventional hydropower

• Global climate change is affecting stream flows throughout the world

• Huge environmental impact

• For US, no major plans

• China is currently constructing 15 new hydropower facilities

• Recent findings claim that hydropower is not as “green” as originally thought

Tidal Energy

Rance (France), second largest tidal power station at 240 MW

Pros of tidal energy

1.Produces no primary or

secondary pollutants

2.Requires no fuel and is a lot more

reliable

3.Easy to calculate when

production will be high or low

4.Vertical axis is highly efficient

and cheap

5.Provides new and innovative

ways of gathering

Cons of tidal energy

1.Affects estuary diversity and

populations

2.Bird feeding is disrupted

3.Fish migrations disrupted (Fish

ladders)

4.On average will provide 10

hours of energy per day

5.Few actual high productivity

sites available on earth

Department of Energy Awards $37 Million for Marine and

Hydrokinetic Energy Technology Development

September 9, 2010 - 12:00am

Washington, DC - U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu today

announced selections for more than $37 million in funding to

accelerate the technological and commercial readiness of emerging

marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies, which seek to

generate renewable electricity from the nation's oceans and free-

flowing rivers and streams. The 27 projects range from concept

studies and component design research to prototype development

and in-water device testing. This unprecedented level of funding will

advance the ability of marine and hydrokinetic energy technologies

to contribute to the nation's electricity supply.

Maine Project Takes Historic Step Forward in U.S. Tidal Energy Deployment

May 4, 2012 - 12:11pm

Cobscook Bay, Maine, is the site of a tidal energy pilot project led by Ocean

Renewable Power Company. | Photo courtesy of Ocean Renewable Power Company.

Cobscook Bay, Maine, is the site of a tidal energy pilot project led by Ocean

Renewable Power Company. | Photo courtesy of Ocean Renewable Power Company.

So where’s the electricity puck gonna be?

In the near term,

Natural gas -- Commodity prices have fallen 70 perfect in seven years.

and small plants are viable.

Solar, wind and garbage -- all have the advantage of decentralization,

allowing myriad providers access.

Nuclear – take advantage of the existing NPP, put new and safer

technology into work, gradually reduce the dependence of nuclear

power

This minimizes the need for expensive inter-ties like Gateway West.

So where’s the electricity puck gonna be?

In the near term,

What we need to accomplish:

Produce locally, consume locally.

Small is beautiful.

Most every housetop in the Magic Valley is a ready made platform for

solar.

Every farm and city is a potential engine for organic waste, be it

straw, cow, manure or garbage.

Burning is spreading like wildfire in Europe.

Dairy waste alone could create enough energy to power the entire

valley.

So where’s the electricity puck gonna be?

Geothermal -- the next go-to guy.

Heating and cooling are the biggest household energy hogs.

God’s provided mother earth as a giant battery.

Every lawn is a battery terminal.

It’s 100 percent green.

Go green, renewable, we have only “one earth” to live on.

Finally, job No. 1 is conservation -- Every kilowatt you don’t use

is a kilowatt you “create.”

Important experiences from energy development of Scotland

Future energy source search will need a big push from

government

What have these “energy resources” to do with earthquakes?

Production sites, refinery sites, power plant sites, distribution sites of any

energy resource are considered “critical facilities”.

Critical facilities are subjected to risks from

1. strong ground motions or tsunami generated from large

earthquakes that may occur at nearby active faults or

tectonically active regions, e.g. subduction zone, rift zone,

or collision zone

2. fatigue of any compartment of the facility after a long period

of operation

3. operational errors from human management

Among them, risk #2 and #3 could be minimized by expert’s attention.

However, risk #1 requires continuous monitoring, research, assessment, and

coordination between multi-disciplinary researchers and government agencies.

Risk #2 and #3 can be significantly reduced due to the

evolution of nuclear power design

Example for Nuclear Power Plant

One of the criteria for licensing of a nuclear power plant is that

no active faults are located within 250 miles radius from the

proposed site. Apparently, this is not the case for the nuclear

power plants in Taiwan, Japan, and even for California in the

USA. Alternatively, the construction threshold for a NPP in

these areas of high seismic hazard has to set to a higher

standard to allow the plant to sustain the maximum possible

strong ground motion from future large earthquakes.

That means “more expensive” for building NPP in high

seismic hazard regions, e.g. Taiwan, Japan, and California of

the USA

Locations of NPP and

Seismicity in the US

(Michelle Frey, 2011)

Locations of NPP and

Seismic hazard in the US

(Michelle Frey, 2011)

However, seismic risk of NPPs in central and eastern USA may

be underestimated due to the fact that seismic attenuation is

dramatically different between eastern and western US.

Seismic attenuation is one of the important parameters for a

successful assessment of regional seismic hazard.

Tornadoes are another potential natural disaster risk on NPPs.

Seismicity in Taiwan region is one of the most seismological

active regions in the world

Is seismic hazard in Taiwan region properly evaluated?

Volcano Earthquakes

Geothermal area tends to have earthquake swarms due to

volcanic activities, thermal expansions, movement of magma

bodies etc. Volcano or geothermal related earthquakes can be

as large as Magnitude 6.0.

Of course, volcano eruption is another hazard always around

the corner of any “active volcano”.

Luckily volcano eruption is recently becoming “Predictable”.

Example: Hawaii Islands

Older age

PuuOo Eruption

Recent Volcano Eruption History in Hawaii

April 23, 1990 A roadside store in Kalapana region

June 13, 1990

June 19, 1990

 

Vp =l + 2m

r

Vs =m

r

How do we know there are magma reservoirs beneath

a volcano?

Where is rigidity, 0 for liquid, and ~1 for solid

materials. 0~1 for partial melting materials

Therefore, we would expect a low Vp but high Vp/Vs

ratio for a region of magma reservoir

 

m

Cross-section of Vp (top) and Vp/Vs ratio across the Tatung-Chilung

volcanic group where volcanism ceased in Pliocene. The low Vp but

high Vp/Vs ratio beneath the volcano may suggest the potential of the

existence of partially melted magmatic reservoir at shallow depth.

Therefore, there are earthquakes, most of them in swarms,

beneath the Tatung volcano. Preliminary 3-D tomographic

images of structures beneath the Tatung Volcano suggested a

potential of “magma reservoir” at shallow depth.

A few coal burning and nuclear power plants are located

along coastal area of northern Taiwan. It is essential to

evaluate if these volcano earthquakes or potential magma

reservoir beneath Tatung volcano will cause any risk to these

critical facilities as well as Taipei City.

Induced Earthquakes

Deep drilling wells for petroleum and natural gas productions,

deep waste water injection wells, as well as reservoirs for

hydraulic or other purposes may accompany “induced

earthquakes”. �Recent moderate and unusual earthquakes

occurred in central Arkansas, Oklahoma City of Oklahoma, and

Dallas region of Texas are good examples

Major concerns for nuclear power plants --- nearby tectonic

earthquakes, active faults, tsunami

Petroleum, natural gases, geothermal, hydraulic reservoir –

Induced earthquakes

Earthquakes with magnitude (M)

≥ 3 in the U.S. midcontinent,

1967–2012 (Ellsworth, 2013).

After decades of a steady

earthquake rate (average of 21

events/year), activity increased

starting in 2001 and peaked at

188 earthquakes in 2011.

Human-induced earthquakes are

suspected to be partially

responsible for the increase.

Can time and location of an earthquake be

predicted?

• Yes, and No

• 1975 Haicheng earthquake (Mw 7.3), China, was

predicted successfully based on large number of

foreshocks and anomalous behavior of animals.

None died.

• 1976 Tangshan earthquake (Mw 7.6) was not

predicted. More than 260,000 died.

• Recent dispute in the L’Aquita, Italy earthquake

2009 (ML 5.9, Mw 6.3)

Aftershocks in the Courtroom

• 30 people died of a major earthquake in

L’Aquila 2009

• Italian judge sentenced seven Italian

scientists to jail for their downplay of the

risk of a major earthquake

• Scientific communities argue that the

sentence is un-justified

30 people died during the L’Aquila, Italy earthquake (April

2009, ML 5.9, Mw 6.3)

Seven Experts were sentenced for downplayed the risk of a major earthquake

A dramatic increase of microearthquake activities before

the main shock

So, what can we do?

• Continuous monitoring of active seismic source

regions nearby any critical facilities to

1. study background seismic activities

2. explore any anomalous seismic activities

3. update observed strong ground motion

information

4. study temporary and spatial variations of

nearby subsurface structures

Seismicity in Taiwan region is one of the most seismological

active regions in the world

Is seismic hazard in Taiwan region properly evaluated?

So, what can we do?

• Continuous monitoring of active seismic source

regions nearby any critical facilities

• Establish real-time earthquake early warning

system

Early Warning System

• Standalone – single station early warning

system for railroads and other critical

facilities

• Multiple stations – seismic array early

warning system for distant critical facilities

including nuclear power plan, super

computer center, hospital, government

building, etc.

Standalone Early Warning System

Strong motion sensors have been installed along the bullet train routes. Electric power

will be automatically shut down when strong ground motion beyond a threshold value

is detected. During the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, 23 bullet trains in motion were

successfully brought to stop by shutting down power automatically when strong ground

motions were detected.

Multiple Stations – Array Early Warning System

Array early warning system has also been installed near the potential source

regions to provide early warning for critical facilities such as nuclear power

plants, super computers, government buildings, etc.

Thanks for your attention

"This funding represents the largest single investment of federal

funding to date in the development of marine and hydrokinetic

energy technologies," said Secretary Chu. "These innovative projects

will help grow water power's contribution to America's clean energy

economy."

The nation's ocean waves, tides, currents, thermal gradients, and

free-flowing rivers represent a promising energy source located close

to centers of electricity demand. The Department of Energy is

working with industry, universities, national laboratories, and other

groups to develop technologies capable of harnessing these resources

to generate environmentally sustainable, cost-competitive power.

The Department of Energy will leverage private sector investments

in marine and hydrokinetic energy technologies by providing cost-

shared funding to industry and industry-led partnerships.

Some of the projects selected today include:

Ocean Power Technologies, Inc. (Pennington, New Jersey) will deploy a full-

scale 150 kilowatt PowerBuoy system in the Oregon Territorial Sea and collect two

years of detailed operating data. This project will obtain critical technical and cost

performance data for one of the most advanced wave energy converters in the U.S.

DOE Funding: $2,400,000. Total Project Value: $4,800,000.

Ocean Renewable Power Company (Portland, Maine) will build, install, operate,

and monitor a commercial-scale array of five grid-connected TidGen TM Project

devices on the sea floor in Cobscook Bay off Eastport, Maine in two phases over

three years. The project will advance ORPC's cross-flow turbine tidal energy

technology, producing a full-scale, grid-connected energy system and will gather

critical technical and cost performance data for one of the most advanced tidal

energy systems in the U.S. The completed project will comprise an array of

interconnected TidGenT hydrokinetic energy conversion devices, associated power

electronics, and interconnection equipment into a system fully capable of

commercial operation in moderate to high velocity tidal currents in water depths of

up to 150 feet. The project will significantly advance the technical, operational and

environmental goals of the tidal energy industry at large. DOE Funding:

$10,000,000. Total Project Value: $21,100,000.

Public Utility District No.1 of Snohomish County (Everett,

Washington) will deploy, operate, monitor, and evaluate two 10-

meter diameter Open-Centre Turbines, developed and manufactured

by OpenHydro Group Ltd, in Admiralty Inlet of Puget Sound. The

project is expected to generate 1 megawatt (MW) of electrical energy

during periods of peak tidal currents with an average energy output

of approximately 100 kilowatts (kW). This full-scale, grid-connected

tidal turbine system will gather critical technical and cost

performance data for one of the most advanced tidal turbine projects

in the U.S. DOE Funding: $10,000,000. Total Project Value:

$20,100,000.

All Eyes on Eastport: Tidal Energy Project Brings Change, Opportunity to Local

Community

July 24, 2012 - 2:40pm

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Captain Gerald "Gerry" Morrison, Vice President of Perry Marine & Consctruction. |

Photo Courtesy of Ocean Renewable Power Company.

Erin R. PierceDigital Specialist, Office of Public Affairs

Today in Eastport, Maine, people are gathering to celebrate a project that will harness

the power of the massive tides of Cobscook Bay to generate clean electricity.

At a public dedication event this afternoon, Portland-based Ocean Renewable Power

Company will unveil its first commercial-scale tidal turbine before it is deployed

underwater to generate power.

The pilot project -- supported by $10 million in funding from the Energy Department --

is expected to generate enough energy to power 100 area homes. Once successfully

deployed, it will be among the first commercial, grid-connected projects of its kind in

the nation.

Investing in tidal energy is part of President Obama’s all-of-the-above strategy to

develop every source of American energy to reduce costs for consumers, protect our air

and water, and move the United States toward true energy independence.

Ocean Renewable Power’s Eastport venture not only represents a monumental step for

the U.S. tidal energy industry -- it also holds important economic implications for

surrounding coastal communities.

We recently caught up with Captain Gerald “Gerry” Morrison, Vice President of Perry

Marine & Construction, for more insight into what the project means for local families

and businesses.

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“I grew up here. I can remember when Eastport made things,” said Morrison whose

family ties to the area go back for five generations. “I’d like Eastport to go back to

the days when there were a lot of people here and people had jobs. That’s what I’d

like to see,” he added.

For Morrison, Ocean Renewable Power’s project spells economic opportunity for the

people who live and work in the area. His own company, Perry Marine &

Construction -- a joint venture with CPM Constructors -- works to manufacture and

deploy tidal turbines developed by Ocean Renewable Power’s team of engineers.

As Ocean Renewable Power’s project continues to expand and evolve, so too has

Morrison’s own venture. Perry Marine & Construction is building a new turbine

fabrication facility, and the size of the company’s staff has doubled.

When asked what his favorite aspect was of the project,

Morrison described the excitement of working on something

that’s “never been done before” and “fresh out of the box.”But at the end of the day, what is most important, explained

Morrison is the project’s economic implications. “It’s jobs

for the area,” he said. “Made in the USA. Made in Eastport.

By American people who take pride in their work. That’s the

key.”