Post on 30-Dec-2015
description
ERCOT PUBLIC10/21/2014 1
2014 LTSA UpdateOctober 21, 2014
ERCOT PUBLIC10/21/2014 2
Outline
LTSA update
Case summary
Reliability analysis results
Next steps
ERCOT PUBLIC10/21/2014 3
LTSA Update
Four scenarios were shortlisted for transmission analysis based on
stakeholder feedback
Current Trends (CT)
High Economic Growth (HEG)
Stringent Environmental (SE)
Global Recession (GR)
Reliability cases were prepared per the LTSA scope
Final 2013 RTP case for the year 2018 was used as a start case
90th percentile load forecast by weather zone was used for the cases
Additional generation was added based on the outcome of generation
expansion analysis
Generation siting methodology was used to keep siting consistent
across scenarios
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Case Summary: 2029 Reliability Case (summer peak)
Scenario Load Generation* Solar Wind
CT 88782 88774 7241 646
HEG 95984 98991 11189 508
GR 84022 79141 3839 517
SE 88842 86542 11540 1011
*Total generation available for reliability analysis under summer peak condition per the LTSA scope
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Impact of solar adds
The LTSA scenario assumptions lead to
significant solar additions in the next decade
Amount of utility solar increases from 150 MW to
about 10,000 MW
Solar output is known to be co-incident with the
demand
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Impact of solar adds on the load shape
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Reliability Analysis Summary (Preliminary Results)
Study Region Constrained Element
Scenarios Where Violated
Years Where Violated
CT SE GR 2024 2029
Coast
Surfsi – Quintana – Freeport 138-kV Line X X X X X
Jordan – Cities – Winfree – Brine – Langston – Mont Belvieu 138-kV Line X X X X
Greenbelt – Tejas – Comanche 138-kV Line X X X X
Dow 345/138-kV Autotransformers A1 and A2 X X X
South Texas – Dow 345-kV Lines X X
Peters – Foster – Flewellen 138-kV Line X X
EastMt Enterprise – Trinidad 345-kV Line X X
Richland – Big Brown 345-kV Line X X
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Reliability Analysis Summary (Preliminary Results)
Study Region Constrained Element
Scenarios Where Violated
Years Where Violated
CT SE GR 2024 2029
North Central
Hicks Switch – Alliance / Roanoke 345-kV double circuit line X X - - X
Benbrook 345/138-kV autotransformers X X X - X
Collin Switch 345/138-kV autotransformer #1 X X - X X
Northwest Carrollton 345/138-kV autotransformer X - - X
Eagle Mountain SES 345/138-kV autotransformers X X - - X
Hicks Switch 345/138-kV autotransformer X X X X X
Roanoke Switch 345/138-kV autotransformers X X X X
Royse Switch 345/138-kV autotransformers X - - X -
West Uvalde – W. Batesville 138 kV line X X XBrackettville – Hamilton 138-kV line X X
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Reliability Analysis Summary (Preliminary Results)
Study Region Constrained Element
Scenarios Where Violated
Years Where Violated
CT HE SE GR 2024 2029
South
La Palma 345/138-kV autotransformer and surrounding 138-kV lines
X X X X
Loma Alta 345/138-kV autotransformer and surrounding 138-kV lines
X X X X
South Central
Clear Springs - Marion - Skyline 345-kV line X X
Bracken 345/138-kV autotransformer X X
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Next steps
Complete N-1, G-1 + N-1 and X-1 + N-1 reliability
analysis
Compile list of reliability projects for different scenarios
Complete economic analysis
Summarize results in the 2014 LTSA