2013-14 Second Quarter Fiscal Update and

Economic Statement November 26, 2013

Overview

• Turning the corner • Challenges remain

• Fastest growing province • Floods • Bitumen bubble is back

Booming Population

Flood Costs

• June 24 - Floods • June 27 - $1 B commitment • November 25 - $764 M

supplementary estimate

Economic Strength

• Solid foundation • Strong growth • Net asset position

Economic Strength

19.8%

14.4%

10.8%

32.9%

28.2%

24.3%

Real GDP

Employment

Population

Alberta Canada

Growth in select indicators 2002-2012

Employment and Migration

(20)

(10)

-

10

20

30

40

50

2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1

thousands Employment Growth (q/q)

Net Migration

Q2 - Actual Results

Operational Plan 6 Month Estimate

Q2 Actual

• Operational Revenue • Operational Expense • Disaster/Emergency Assistance • Operational Deficit/Surplus

$19 B $19 B $15 M $58 M deficit

$20.4 B $19.3 B $ 458 M $1.1 B surplus

Fiscal year end operational balance range: $250 M surplus to $250 M deficit

Oil Price Differential

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

$

WTI WCS

$40 $10

$15

$30

Market Access

Market access the biggest factor affecting oil revenue • Opening new markets • Washington D.C. visits • Asia • Canadian Energy Strategy

Flood Costs

Flood spending forecast • $4.3 B this year • $3.1 B federal government • $1.2 B Alberta government

Flood Costs

$625 M

$139 M Cash cards, First Nations housing,purchasing homes in floodway,Hand-up Plan for small business,etc.

Roads, bridges, erosion repair,etc.

$764 M for initial requirement to support Albertans, businesses and communities.

Revised Budget Forecast

*Budget Balance Sheet Forecast *Revised Balance Sheet Forecast Contingency Account $0.7 B Heritage Fund and other funds $18.5 B Net Assets $42.3 B *at March 31, 2014

$2.6 B - $18.5 B $42.5 B

Budget Estimate - Capital Plan Revised Capital Plan Forecast Capital Plan Spending $5.2 B $5.7 B

Budget Estimate - Operational Plan Revised Operational Forecast Operational Revenue $37.7 B Operational Expense $38.1 B Operational Deficit $451 M

$42.7 B $42.7 B Operational Surplus $15 M

Questions

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