Post on 06-Feb-2018
2012. 06. 04
2012 : /
?
//
Tel. 368-6156
wslee@eugenefn.com
Glossary
PP(Program Provider)
, .
.
MPP(Multiple Program Provider) .
, .
(BSBroadcasting Satellite) . (SBSatellite Broadcasting)
, 3 6000
.
,
,
,
Media Representative
.
,
.
,
,
.
(KOBACO) ,
KOBACO(Korea Broadcasting
Advertising Corporation)
. ,
1981 1
() . TV, ,
,
. ,
. ,
, .
Summary
?
(, SBS, CJ E&M)
: , SBS , CJ E&M
!
3
: TV SBS . KOBACO : () . : . (Re-cook) .
() SBS( TV ) CJ E&M(CATV )
()
: 1) : 1
2) : (2Q12 S3 , 3Q12 , 4Q12 )
/, M&A
TV SBS: 2Q12 1)
2) needs
Conviction BUY: / : CJ E&M
: 1Q12 Resource . !
CJ E&M: /// . , Signal
//
Tel. 368-6156
wslee@eugenefn.com
Contents
Summary
I.
II. Valuation
1. Conviction BUY, SBS
2. Global Valuation
3. Global Valuation
III. , 2012?
IV.
1. :
2. :
3. :
V. ?
1. : ?
2. SBS: ?
3. CJ E&M: 2013
(030000.KS)
SBS(034120.KS)
CJ E&M(130960.KQ)
3 6 8
14
17
23
41
Analyst | /
6_ www.Eugenefn.com
I.
, SBS .
,
. 2Q12
.
SBS , 2
, 1Q12 2Q12
.
, CJ E&M ,
, Fundamentals .
, /
/ .
24,000, SBS 44,000 BUY , CJ
E&M 31,000, HOLD .
: <
: >
1
CJ E&M SBS
( )
(BUY & HOLD)
:
www.Eugenefn.com _7
Analyst | /
2
SBS CJ E&M
- : 1
- : , M&A
- :
- : PP ,
- :
- :
- : 2
- 2011 ,
-
- ,
-
-
- , - -
* / /
:
3
(030000)
SBS
(034120)
CJ E&M
(130960)
/
BUY BUY HOLD
() 24,000 44,000 31,000
2011 1,758.2 720.6 1,143.1
2012E 2,173.0 794.6 1,513.0
() 2013E 2,435.2 771.3 1,718.2
2011 108.5 75.0 70.1
2012E 148.2 53.4 64.1
() 2013E 167.8 75.9 82.1
2011 95.8 58.0 58.7
2012E 128.7 43.6 57.3
() 2013E 144.7 60.7 75.1
2011 811 3,180 1,745
2012E 1,095 2,388 1,624 EPS
() 2013E 1,233 3,325 1,980
2011 23.4 11.7 17.4
2012E 16.5 15.3 17.5 PER
(X) 2013E 14.6 11.0 14.3
2011 3.3 1.3 1.0
2012E 2.7 1.2 0.9 PBR
(X) 2013E 2.3 1.1 0.8
2011 14.1 11.6 8.0
2012E 17.0 8.0 4.8 ROE
(%) 2013E 16.5 10.3 6.0
2011 12.7 6.3 3.5
2012E 8.4 6.9 3.0 EV/EBITDA
(X) 2013E 7.6 4.9 2.7
:
: 12 5 25 / , CJ E&M =
Analyst | /
8_ www.Eugenefn.com
II. Valuation
1. Conviction BUY, SBS
4
SBS CJ E&M
2012 E EPS 1,095 2012E BPS 30,551 2012E EPS 1,624
Target
Valuation
PER 21.8
(
5 PER )
PBR 1.4
( PBR
)
PER 18.8
(SBS 2000~2007(
) PER )
24,000 44,000 31,000
Conviction BUY BUY HOLD
:
(A) 2012E EPS 1,095 Target PER 21.8 24,000()
. Target PER 21.8 5 PER ,
1) , 2)
, 3)
.
EPS 2012 35.0%, 2013 12.6% ,
( ) 9.5%, 7.0% ( 5 ).
12E PER 16.5(5 25 ) 14.7 12.3% Premium
, .
5
86
8
4
97 8 6 6
35
75
7
3
97 7 6 6
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
OM
NIC
OM
GP
.
INTE
RP
UB
LIC
GP
.
DE
NTS
U
HA
KU
HO
DO
DY
HD
G.
AS
ATS
U-
DK
WP
P
AE
GIS
GR
OU
P
PU
BLIC
IS
GR
OU
PE
HA
VA
S
CH
EIL
WO
RLD
WID
E
2012E
2013E
(%)
: Bloomberg,
:
www.Eugenefn.com _9
Analyst | /
(B) SBS , 1) , 2)
. SBS
. SBS 2012E BPS 30,551
PBR 1.4 Target Multiple , 44,000 .
SBS 1Q12
. ,
2Q12 . SBS PBR Valuation
( 6 ).
6
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
'01.01 '02.01 '03.01 '04.01 '05.01 '06.01 '07.01 '08.01 '09.01 '10.01 '11.01 '12.01
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
SBS () SBS () ()()
2008 , 2010
: SBS,
Analyst | /
10_ www.Eugenefn.com
(C) CJ E&M /
, 2013 .
.
CJ E&M 2012E EPS 1,624 SBS
2000~2007 PER 18.8 . EPS
31,000 8.8% . ,
Valuation
(12E PER 17.5, 12~13 ), Valuation
, .
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12
CJ E&M PP PP
: CJ E&M,
: CJ E&M 17
www.Eugenefn.com _11
Analyst | /
8 9
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
'07.12 '09.03 '10.06 '11.09 '12.12 '14.03
Adj. Prc. 28.0X 22.8X
17.6X 12.3X 7.1X
()
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
'07.12 '09.08 '11.04 '12.12 '14.08
Adj. Prc. 3.3X 2.8X
2.3X 1.7X 1.2X
()
: :
10 11
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
'07.12 '09.03 '10.06 '11.09 '12.12 '14.03
Adj. Prc. 30.0X 25.0X
20.0X 15.0X 10.0X
()
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
'07.12 '09.08 '11.04 '12.12 '14.08
Adj. Prc. 1.8X 1.6X
1.4X 1.2X 1.0X
()
: :
12 13
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
'10.12 '11.12 '12.12 '13.12 '14.12
Adj. Prc. 30.0X 26.3X
22.5X 18.8X 15.0X
()
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
'10.12 '11.12 '12.12 '13.12 '14.12
Adj. Prc. 1.3X 1.2X
1.1X 0.9X 0.8X
()
: :
Analyst | /
12_ www.Eugenefn.com
2. Global Valuation
14 15
ASATSU-DK
Omnicom
Interpublic
Dentsu
WPP
Aegis
Publicis
Havas
Cheil WW
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
5 10 15 20 25 30
(PER,X)
(EV/EBITDA,X)
Omnicom
Interpublic
Dentsu
Hakuhodo
Asatsu
WPP
Aegis
Publicis
Havas
Cheil WW
y = 0.1213x + 0.1433
R2 = 0.8989
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
(PBR,X)
(ROE,%)
: Bloomberg, / : 5 25 : Bloomberg, / : 5 25
16
EV EBITDA(X) PER(X) PBR(X) ROE(%) (%) FYE
2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 1M 3M 6M
OMNICOM. 12 7.8 7.3 13.3 12.2 3.4 3.1 27.1 28.2 -0.9 2.4 24.4US
INTERPUBLIC. 12 5.7 5.1 13.2 10.7 1.8 1.7 16.0 18.3 -3.3 -7.6 27.7
DENTSU 03 7.6 7.3 16.0 14.8 1.0 1.0 6.4 6.7 -9.9 -9.1 2.6
HAKUHODO. 03 3.7 3.4 16.0 14.6 0.9 0.8 5.7 5.9 -7.0 -4.2 14.9JAPAN
ASATSU-DK 12 9.1 8.9 26.0 23.7 0.9 0.9 3.5 3.5 -9.4 -5.8 14.4
WPP 12 7.0 6.6 10.3 9.4 1.4 1.3 13.0 12.8 -7.6 -2.4 26.8
AEGIS GROUP 12 7.6 7.1 13.0 11.9 3.7 3.2 26.5 26.9 -7.7 -7.1 30.1
PUBLICIS GROUPE 12 6.0 5.7 11.6 10.7 1.8 1.5 17.3 17.1 -4.5 -9.0 13.8EUROPE
HAVAS 12 5.9 5.6 10.9 9.8 1.2 1.1 11.2 11.4 -8.6 5.7 42.2
KOREA CHEIL WORLDWIDE 12 9.1 6.4 16.6 11.7 2.7 2.2 17.2 20.6 -3.7 -3.7 1.4
7.0 6.3 14.7 13.0 1.9 1.7 14.4 15.1 -6.3 -4.1 19.8
: Bloomberg,
: 5 25
www.Eugenefn.com _13
Analyst | /
3. Global Valuation
17 18
CJ E&M
TV Asahi
Vivendi
M6
Fuji Media
Nippon TVDish network
DirectvITV
Time warner
CBS
Time warner
cable
ComcastSBS
Tokyo Bcast
Walt Disney
Newscorp
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
6 8 10 12 14 16 18
(PER,X)
(E