Post on 20-Aug-2015
2012 Asia Pacific Energy & Power Outlook
Ravi K, Vice President - Energy & Power Services Practice, Asia Pacific
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Top Predictions for 2012 in Asia Pacific
22
33
44
55
66
77
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Renewable Energy Markets to witness a growth of 20 percent in terms of total investments, during 2012
Renewable Energy Markets to witness a growth of 20 percent in terms of total investments, during 2012
Oil & Gas upstream capital expenditure to increase by 10 percent and refining capacity additions to double in 2012
Oil & Gas upstream capital expenditure to increase by 10 percent and refining capacity additions to double in 2012
Energy Management Market to see a growth rate of 13.7 percent in 2012, riding on government support; but still facing resistance from industries
Energy Management Market to see a growth rate of 13.7 percent in 2012, riding on government support; but still facing resistance from industries
Global leading companies will continue to scout for smart grid technology acquisitions, but utilities will be slow to adopt in Asia Pacific
Global leading companies will continue to scout for smart grid technology acquisitions, but utilities will be slow to adopt in Asia Pacific
Mobile Computing and Disaster Management to drive investments in Network Power SystemsMobile Computing and Disaster Management to drive investments in Network Power Systems
Durban Climate Change Talks – Expect no path breaking agreements, but incremental progress possible
Durban Climate Change Talks – Expect no path breaking agreements, but incremental progress possible
Conventional Power Generation and T&D Infrastructure development will be the single largest source of revenue for the power equipment industry
Conventional Power Generation and T&D Infrastructure development will be the single largest source of revenue for the power equipment industry
88 Traditional Energy Companies will be increasingly challenged by the unconventional competitors and startups, with focus on niche technologies and new business models
Traditional Energy Companies will be increasingly challenged by the unconventional competitors and startups, with focus on niche technologies and new business models
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Major Drivers 2012 for Energy & Power in Asia Pacific
Growth in Energy Demand
Focus on Smart Energy by
developed Asia Pacific
Massive investment in
power infrastructure by developing Asia
Energy Security and
Fuel DiversityNatural disaster driven
demand for automation and backup power
Increasing affordability of green energy
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
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Slow pace of market
liberalization
Project cost escalation and
currency fluctuation
Global economic
uncertainties could affect
export driven Asia
Impasse on climate change
treaty
Bilateral & multi-lateral -
political & trade issues
Key Restraints Summary
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
Key Restraints in 2012 for Energy & Power in Asia Pacific
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Coal, Gas, Nuclear, Diesel,
Wind, Solar, LNG Imports,
Refineries
Regional Hotspots of Opportunities in Asia Pacific
• Smart Grids• Solar Power• LNG Liquefaction
• Deep water E&P• Solar PV• Coal & Gas to Power• Energy Efficiency• Network Power Supplies
Coal, Solar, Nuclear, Wind, Smart Grids, LNG Imports, Refineries
• Solar PV• Smart Grids• Energy Efficiency• Network Power Supplies
• Smart Grids• Solar PV• Wind• Energy Efficiency
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Executive Summary—CEO’s Perspective on Solar
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Malaysia emerging as the favored destination in Southeast Asia for new PV manufacturing plants (e.g. Bosch & Panasonic)
3
Thailand, a hotbed for solar PV market in Southeast Asia till 2011 is likely to remain weak in 2012 due to the flood crisis
4The recent passage of the ‘Carbon Tax’ in Australia will give a fillip to the solar PV market
5Implementation of a net FIT will help sustain Japan’s position in the solar PV market
1China – not just a global manufacturing center for solar; fastest growing market in Asia especially on-grid solar PV
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Solar PV Installed Capacity Forecast, 2012
Annual Installed Capacity, 2012
5,330 MW 38.6%
MARKET GROWTH (2012)
450 MW 1,360 MW2,600 MW
500 MW 150 MW
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Executive Summary—CEO’s Perspective on Wind
2China will continue be the biggest national annual market globally due to China’s thirst for energy and promotion of renewables
3Japan’s onshore market is expected to continue experiencing a slow down because of extreme weather, complicated authorization process and grid connectivity
4
Australia will be better positioned for growth- provided that its government can restore profitable Renewable Energy Credit (REC) pricing levels for wind project in the near term
5The offshore wind power market will emerge in Asia Pacific from 2012, mainly driven by China
1The Asia Pacific will continue to be the fastest-growing wind market worldwide in 2012 in terms of installed capacity, followed by North America and Europe
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Market Forecasts 2012 for Wind
60,512
105,949
100,870
6,876
North America Europe Asia Pacific ROW
Cumulative Installed Capacity, 2012 Annual Installed Capacity, 2012
21,257 MW
26.7%
Capacity Growth (2012)
15,000 MW 2,200 MW
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Executive Summary—CEO’s Perspective on Conventional Power
2Countries will increase their focus on T&D planning because of ageing infrastructure and bottlenecks in bulk power evacuation
3Ongoing power shortages in several emerging markets will continue to drive the demand for diesel and small gas fired plants
4Asia Pacific region continues to be the largest market for LNG with China, India and Southeast Asia ramping up on regasification terminals
5While as much in demand, actual imports of coal for power into India and China could suffer due to policies by Indonesia & Australia making imports expensive
1Coal fired power plants will continue to lead in terms of capacity creation, but focus will be on ultra supercritical boilers and other backend pollution control technologies
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Key Highlights for Conventional Power
Anticipated Investments
$130-140
Billion
Attractive Countries
China, India, Indonesia
VietnamMongolia
Growth Rate in 2012
4.0-5.0%
Market Drivers
Fastest base load
additions
Easy availability of
fuels
Segments to Watch
• Supercritical
plants
• CCS
development
Major Changes Expected
Technology shift to clean coal fired generation plant
using ultra supercritical
Market Restraints
Obtaining financial
closure on time
Environmental
concerns
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Pricing Trends
‘Decline’ for gas because
of economies of scale.
“Increase” for coal
because of domestic
shortages in India &
China
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Executive Summary—CEO’s Perspective on Nuclear
2With stringent national regulations on maintenance, and local authorities’ reluctance to approve restarts, there is a concern that by April or May 2012 Japan may have very small nuclear output for the first time since 1966
3
South Korean enterprises are among those hoping to pick up overseas contracts at the expense of Japanese companies because of relatively limited opposition to the country’s domestic nuclear program and government support
4With only five reactors with 3,900 MW of capacity currently under construction and 4,385 MW in operation, achieving India’s massive proposed growth in capacity may be difficult because of financial, institutional, political and local issues
5The Vietnam's nuclear program, which posited the construction of four 1,000 MW reactions, is unlikely to be affected by Fukushima. This is witnessed by Vietnam’s willingness to use Japanese technology and resources
1The Fukushima disaster is unlikely to have a long term impact on China’s nuclear growth and has reinforced central government concerns about the technology, ownership, and geographic spread of future Chinese nuclear capacity
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Executive Summary—CEO’s Perspective on Smart Grids
2Industry could see some major mergers as bigger players like CISCO, Schneider, Toshiba become more aggressive
3Strategic international partnerships would need to be forged to cater to diverse technology requirements
4Educating the customers the key to successful AMI implementation for utilities
5Choice between Wifi vs Zigbee as HAN communication standard
1IPO results of global leaders such as Silver Spring Networks could define way forward for the smart grid industry
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
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Key Highlights for Smart Grids
Anticipated Investments
US$ 10 Billion
Attractive Countries
ChinaAustralia
KoreaThailand
Growth Rate in 2012
60-70%
Market Drivers
Investments in grid
modernization
Segments to Watch
AMIHV TechnologiesGrid Automation
Major Changes Expected
Key pilot projects in Korea and
Australia likely to near completion
Market Restraints
Ambiguity over technology and business case
Stable IncreasingDecreasing Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
Pricing Trends
Price of meters, energy storage and renewable
energy are following a
downward trend
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Regional Hotspots of Opportunities for Smart Grids
Smart meter roll out in Victoria would peak in 2012 as the deployment enters the penultimate year of the plan
State Grid Corporation of China would invest close to US$10 Billion in multiple Smart Grid technologies
Testing the integrated operation of US$200 million smart grid pilot in Korea would enter the final phase
As part of its US$13 Billion funding over 15 years, Thailand would announce locations for smart grid pilots
India expected to release the Smart Grid standards and accelerate nearly 10 pilot projects
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For Additional Information
Donna JeremiahCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+603 6204 5832djeremiah@frost.com
Carrie LowCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+603 6204 5910carrie.low@frost.com
Ravi KrishnaswamyVice PresidentEnergy & Power Systemsapacfrost@frost.com
Jessie LohCorporate CommunicationsAsia Pacific+65 6890 0942jessie.loh@frost.com