Post on 30-May-2018
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BUY S$0.95 STI : 2,746.61(Initiating Coverage)
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.05Reason for Report : Initiating CoveragePotential Catalyst: AcquisitionsAnalystDerek TAN +65 6398 7966derektan@dbsvickers.com
Munyee LOCK + 65 6398 7972
munyee@dbsvickers.com
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C ac h e L o g i s t i c s T r u st ( L H S ) R e la ti v e ST I IN D EX (R H S )
Forecasts and ValuationFY Dec (S$ m) 2010F* 2011F 2012FGross Revenue 37 68 69Net Property Inc 36 67 68Total Return 43 47 48Distribution Inc 33 52 54EPU (S cts) 4.2 7.3 7.5EPU Gth (%) n.a. 76 3DPU (S cts) 5.2 8.2 8.4DPU Gth (%) n.a. 57 3NAV per shr (S cts) 86.2 84.8 83.4PE (X) 22.8 13.0 12.6Distribution Yield (%) 8.0** 8.6 8.8P/NAV (x) 1.1 1.1 1.1
Aggregate Leverage (%) 26.1 35.6 36.2ROAE (%) 9.6 8.6 8.9
Consensus DPU (S cts): 6.4 8.4 8.5* Pro-rated due to recent listing in Apr 2010** Annualized based on a DPU of 5.2 Scts
ICB Industry :FinancialsICB Sector: Real Estate Investment TrustPrincipal Business: CLT is a REIT which invest primarity in industrialassets located in the Pan Pacific region
Source of all data: Company, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg
At A GlanceIssued Capital (m shrs) 632.2Mkt. Cap (S$m/US$m) 600.4 / 428.9Major Shareholders
CWT Limited (%) 12.2JP Morgan (%) 10.9Morgan Stanley (%) 7.1
Free Float (%) 69.8Avg. Daily Vol.(000) 10,206
DBS Group Research . Equity 9 Jun 2010
Singapore Company Focus
Cache Logistics TrustBloomberg: CACHE SP | Reuters: CALT.SI
www.dbsvickers.com
Refer to important disclosures at the end of this reportsa: YM
Hunting for assets Highest yield protection amongst Sreits Competitive edge from synergistic sponsor activities Low gearing of 26% - debt funded war-chest of $100m Initiate with BUY, TP S$1.05 based on DDM
Strong yield protection from master lease structure. CacheLogistics Trust (CLT) offers investors the highest yield protectionamongst Sreits, backed by a defensive rental income stream
derived from a master lease arrangement on a portfolio ofmodern, high quality logistics assets with inbuilt rental escalationensuring stable growth. CLT offers good earnings visibility andstability given a weighted average lease expiry of 6.4 years,longer than industrial peers of c5 years.
Synergistic sponsor interest gives competitive edge.CLT is theonly industrial Sreit with a sponsor whose business operations aresynergistic with the trust. Its competitive strength lies in its largepresence in the ramp-up logistics warehouse space in Singaporewhile sponsor CWTs ability to offer a complete logistics solutionspackage to leading 3PLs in Singapore and Asia Pacific encouragestenant stickiness within CLTs properties. The alliance withARA will also add to its financial and capital markets skillset.
Assuming S$100m of acquisitions in our forecasts. CLTscurrent gearing of c26% empowers the trust with a debt-fundedwar-chest of cS$100m to a gearing limit of 35%, given its non-credit rating status. On top of a ready pipeline from sponsorCWT and C&P, the manager is looking at 3
rdparty opportunities.
We have assumed an additional S$100m of acquisitions at 8.0%net property income yields in our numbers contributing fromFY11 onwards.
Initiate with BUY, TP S$1.05 based on DDM. FY10-11F yieldsof 8.0-8.6% which offers up to180 bps above the Sreit sectoraverage of 6.9-7.2% and 560 bps above the 10 year bond yield,
is attractive considering its sturdy earnings structure with limitedearnings downside. Catalysts for re-rating will hinge on CLTacquiring assets to grow its asset base and earnings.
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Company Focus
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Investment SummaryInitiate with BUY, TP S$ 1.05, offering a total return of 19%.Cache Logistics Trust (CLT) is a logistics focused REIT with
two key differentiating characteristics. CLT is the only Sreit
that offers investors a highly defensive base yield, backed by
a master lease rental structure derived from a niche portfolio
of modern quality logistics assets. It is also the only industrial
Sreit with a sponsor whose business operations are
synergistic with the trust.
A showcase quality portfolio of logistics properties. Its initialportfolio comprises 3.86msf GFA valued at S$729.9m,
97.3% of the space comprises ramp-up buildings with an
average age of 2.1 years. An estimated 94.1% of the
portfolio GFA is occupied by end-users, of which 85.2% are
MNCs and come from the consumer, commodities
/chemicals, food and cold storage, aerospace, courier,
healthcare and hospitality sectors. Notable names include
DHL, Schenker, TNT and Nippon Express.
Low beta proxy play in the growing logistics market. Thelogistics industry is projected to grow to 13% of Singapores
GDP in 2012 from 9% in 2008, with an estimated 8.6-16%
CAGR in the freight forwarding and contract logistics
segments from 2007-2011. CLT is well positioned to benefitfrom this projected growth given the good location of its
properties within the major logistics centers situated in
Singapores east and west coasts. Simultaneously, the supply
of logistics real estate is expected to expand by a lower
CAGR of 3.5% from 2007-2011, underpinning the positive
outlook on rental rates and capital values of logistics
warehouse space.
Highest yield protection amongst Sreits, backed by acombination of income stability and growth. CLT offersstrong earnings visibility backed by a triple net master lease
structure with inbuilt step-up rental clauses of 1.5% pa. CLThas the longest WALE of 6.4 years compared to other
industrial Sreits of up to 5 years, offering investors greater
income stability. Given the secured income stream from the
6.4 years weighted average lease expiry profile in the master
lease agreement, CLTs revenues are well protected. Hence,
this will provide strong yield protection for investors.
Maximum downside protection. Despite its large exposure toCWT and C&P as master lessees of its properties, tenant risk
is limited given the long 12-month security deposits over the
duration of the lease tenure. There are also 3 separate lease
arrangements for CWT Commodity Hub, in which underlying
lease terms are longer (between 6-10 years) than the master
lease period of 5 years. Moreover, C&P has provided
corporate guarantees for the master leases held by its two
subsidiaries for Schenker Megahub, Hi-Speed Logistics
Centre and C&P Changi Districentre properties.
Acquisition growth opportunities underpinned by well-defined pipeline, S$100m worth of injections assumed.Inorganic growth potential is underscored by the right of
first refusals (ROFR) for the sponsor CWTs, and C&Ps assets.
Based on the existing development pipeline, there is an
estimated pool of 11 properties with a potential to be
developed into an estimated 3msf of GFA or c78% of CLTs
initial portfolio. This has not taken into account potential
third party assets that could be transacted. With a gearing
level of c26% after acquiring the initial portfolio & without a
credit rating in the near term, Caches gearing capacity
would be limited to 35%, implying an additional debt
headroom of S$100 m, which we have assumed to be
utilised for new acquisitions in our numbers.
Offering complete logistics solutions package. CLT standsout as the only industrial Sreit with a sponsor whose
business operations are synergistic with the trust. CLT will be
able to benefit from CWTs expertise, experience and
knowledge of the logistics and warehousing market in
Singapore and Asia Pacific as well as leverage on established
networks and relationships with major global logistics service
providers. In addition, the trust can also benefit from ARAs
broad network across the region. Apart from having a ready
platform to leverage on the rapidly growing logistics sector,
these competitive advantages could provide CLT with a first
mover advantage when assessing real estate solutions for itstenants, in our view.
Key risks that could impact CLTs future distributions includeoperating risks such as (i) CLTs ability to maintain current
rentals during renewals given its single asset class exposure
which is facing increasing competition from other
warehouse owners locally and regionally, (ii) its heavy
dependence on its Sponsor when renegotiating its master
lease arrangement due to limited access to end user tenants
and (iii) interest rate volatility, which could result in higher
interest expenses.
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SWOT AnalysisStrengths Weakness Leveraging on the expertise of ARA and CWT. CLT has the
advantage of being able to leverage on ARA Asset
Managements Reit management expertise and in having
CWT Limited, one of Asias leading integrated logistics
providers as a sponsor, allowing CLT to tap on their
respective networks and relationships to source for potential
acquisition opportunities of logistics properties in the Asia
Pacific.
Operator-owned warehouses. Being in the logistics businessand as an operator of warehouses, CWT has accumulated
considerable knowledge of logistics users requirements andexperience in developing and managing logistics properties.
Properties are located in key logistic hubs. CLTs propertiesenjoy strong underlying demand from end-users given prime
locations in Penjuru and Changi, which are located in close
proximity to Singapores sea and air ports. In addition, the
ability of end users to drive their delivery vehicles into all
floors is a critical selling point given enhanced cost efficiency
and quicker turnaround time.
Ownership of unique warehouses. CLT is in possession of 2high quality warehouses in CWT Commodity Hub and CWT
Cold Hub. The former is the largest ramp-up facility in South
East Asia and is an approved warehouse from the LondonMetal Exchange (LME), which generates extra demand for
space there. CWT Cold Hub on the other hand, is the only
ramp-up cold storage facility in Singapore, offering unbroken
cold chain access.
Master lease profile offers no downside to earnings . Themaster lease structure of CLT with C&P and CWT is based on
a base + fixed 1.5% annual escalation clause for the first five
years of the initial contracted lease term, which offers no
downside risk to earnings. In addition, the triple net lease
agreement signed with the master lessees means that capital
expenditure will be low over the contracted lease term.
Tenant concentration risk. Having all its income under themaster lease arrangement with CWT and C&P means that
CLTs revenues are dependent on CWT and C&Ps ability
to make regular rental payments. However, (i) given the
long operating history of both master lessees and their
leading positions in the logistics industry and (ii) the
recovery of Singapores economy points towards an
expansion in trade activities. As such, it is unlikely that the
master lessees will be unable to pay their contracted rents.
Furthermore, the considerable 12-month security deposits
over the duration of the lease tenure provides further
downside protection.
Single asset class. Having a portfolio comprising primarilyramp-up logistics warehouses means exposure to
increased volatility and risk in relation to demand from end
users. This compares to a portfolio that consists of other
industrial asset classes which may offer better
diversification.
Single market exposure. CLTs properties are located inSingapore, which puts it at risk to a prolonged downturn
in the economic performance of Singapore.
Lack of credit rating currently limits gearing to 35%. CLTwill not have a credit rating in the immediate termmeaning it is limited to a gearing of up to 35% (debt/
asset ratio) compared to 60% if it has obtained a rating.
The initial gearing ratio of 25.5% will mean lesser debt
funding capacity to fund future acquisitions.
Opportunities Threats Visible pipeline for growth. CLTs sponsor, CWT as well as
C&P have given the Reit Right of First Refusals (ROFR) on 13
properties located in the Asia Pacific region. This translates
into a total net lettable area of over 3msf, which represents
78% of the initial portfolio.
Development expertise. Through the years, CWT has builtwarehouses to meet the incremental demand for space in
the Asia Pacific region. CLT will be able to tap on this
expertise to engage in potential development activities to
further deliver incremental returns to unitholders.
Competitive warehouses and new supply of ramp-upwarehouses. CWTs warehouses are located in variouslogistics hubs in Singapore where there are other
competing warehouses. In addition, with a further 1.5msf
of new inventory to be completed over the next 2 years
resulting in new space, CLT faces the threat of increased
pressure on rental rates.
Source: DBS Vickers
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Trust StructureLogistics focused trust. Cache Logistics Trust is a Singaporebased real estate investment trust (S-Reit) established with
the objective of investing in real estate used for logistics
purposes in Asia-Pacific, as well as real estate-related assets.
CLT aims to generate regular and stable distributions to
unitholders and to achieve long-term growth in distributions
per unit (DPU) and net asset value per unit, while
maintaining an appropriate capital structure.
The following diagram illustrates the relationship between
CLT, the Reit Manager, the Property Manager, the Trusteeand Unitholders.
Reit manager. The manager of CLT is ARA-CWT TrustManagement (Cache) Ltd, which is 60% owned by
ARA Asset Management Limited (ARA) and 40% owned by
CWT Limited (CWT). The managers main responsibility is to
manage CLTs asset and liabilities for the benefit of
unitholders. The manager will set the strategic direction of
the Reit and give recommendations to the Trustee on any
acquisition, divestment or asset enhancement opportunities
in accordance with its slated investment policy.
Property manager. The property manager of CLT is CacheProperty Management Pte Ltd, which is 40% owned by ARA
and 60% owned by CWT. The property manager provides
property management, lease management and project
management services to the trust.
Ownership Structure of Asset Manager and PropertyManager
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Trustee. HSBC Institutional Trust Services (Singapore)Limited is responsible for safeguarding the rights and the
interests of unitholders.
Trust Structure
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Management
Fee
PropertyManagementFee
Cache Logistics Trust (CLT)
Properties
1) CWT Commodity Hub2) CWT Cold Hub3) Schenker Megahub4) C&P Changi Districentre5) Hi Speed Logistics Centre
6) C&P Changi DC II
PropertyManager
Manager
Unitholders
Trustee
Trustee Fee
Acts on behalf of
unitholders
Ownership of units
Ownership of assets
Distributions
Net property income
ManagementServices
PropertyManagementServices
CWT LmtedRAAsset ManagementLmted
Asset Manager
Property Manager
60%
60%
40%
40%
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Fee StructureCLTs fee structure in line with peers. The fee structure forCLT is similar to other S-Reit and includes (i) fees payable to
the Manager for their asset management initiatives and (ii)
fees to the property manager for their duties towards
maintaining the assets operational performance. Based on
our estimates, CLTs fees payable as a component of total
property value is at 0.6%, which is at the lower end of the
range compared to what other S-Reit managers are currently
being paid (ranging 0.6%-1.4%).
Sreit Manager Fees as a % of Total Property Value
Source: Various companies, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg
Fee Structure of CLTFee Type Payable to Payment Mode DescriptionReit ManagementFee Manager Units and/or Cash Base Fee: 0.5% p.a. of the value of consolidated assets (defined as total assets)Performance Fee: 1.5% p.a. of CLTs Net Property IncomeAcquisition Fee Manager Units and/
or Cash1.0% of acquisition price paid including acquisition costs. To be pro-rated ifapplicable to proportion of CLTs interest
Divestment Fee Manager Units and/or Cash
0.5% of sale price of any real estate sold or divested. To be pro-rated ifapplicable to the proportion of CLTs interest.
PropertyManagementFeePropertyManager
Cash For properties located in Singapore:- Property management fee of 2.0% p.a. on gross revenues of each property
- Lease management fee of 1.0% p.a. on gross revenues of eachproperty
-# Note that no lease management fee is payable for the initial portfolio forthe first 3 years.ProjectManagementFee
PropertyManager
Cash For redevelopments/ developments, retrofitting and renovation of Singaporeproperties:- 3.0% of construction cost if costs are $2.0m or less- Higher of S$60k or 2.0% of construction cost if costs are between $2.0m to$20m- Higher of $400k or 1.5% of construction cost if costs are between $20m to$50m- Fees mutually agreed between Manager, Trustee and Property Manager ifconstruction costs exceed $50m
TrusteeFee Trustee Cash 0.03% p.a. on value of deposited property, subject to a minimum of S$15k permonth and a maximum of 0.25% p.a. of value of deposited property, excludingout of pocket expenses and GST
One-time inception fee of S$50kSource: Manager, DBS Vickers
Industrial REITsART
CCT
CRCT
CMTP-Life
CIT
CLT
AiT
A-REIT
SZREIT
Suntec
SGREIT
K-REITFCT
FCOTCDL HT
Mi-REIT
MLT
0.3%
0.5%
0.7%
0.9%
1.1%
1.3%
1.5%
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Sponsor & ARACWT LtdCWT is one of Southeast Asias largest logistics operators.Established in 1970, CWT with its customized integrated
logistics capabilities, large scale warehousing facilities and
global distribution network, is one of the regions leading
logistics players. CWTs principal businesses comprise
integrated logistics solutions and international freight
forwarding, as well as engineering maintenance and facilities
management services.
Total logistics solutions. CWTs logistics strategy lies in thegroups holistic approach in providing a comprehensive range
of logistics solutions and complementary logistics services to
other logistics players such as DHL, Fedex, Schenker and
Nippon Express. CWT offers close connectivity to support its
customers global operations and supply chain management
requirements, making it a leader in many of the markets in
which it participates whilst at the same time is able to establish
and maintain strong relationships with its clientele
Operator backed REIT. CLT differentiates itself withcompetitors with an operator as its sponsor and will be able to
benefit from CWTs expertise, experience and knowledge of
the logistics and warehousing market in Singapore and Asia
Pacific as well as leverage on established networks and
relationships with major global logistics service providers. As
such, we believe that tenants will tend to be stickier to CLT
assets when compared to other pure space providers
ARA Asset Management LtdOne of largest asset managers in Asia ex-Japan. ARA is anAsian real estate fund management group listed on the SGX.
Established in July 2002 by ARA Group CEO, John Lim, and
Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited, ARAs assets under
management has grown substantially from $0.6 billion as of
31 Dec 2003 to $12.5bn as of 30 Sept 2009.
Manages 5 Reits in 3 countries. ARA has an established trackrecord of managing publicly-listed Reits in Singapore, Hong
Kong and Malaysia with a diversified portfolio spanning office,retail and industrial/office sectors. The publicly-listed Reits
currently managed by ARA are Suntec Reit (listed in
Singapore), Fortune Reit (listed in Singapore), Prosperity Reit
(listed in Hong Kong) and AmFIRST Reit (listed in Malaysia).
Leverage on ARAs capital markets expertise. The trust can alsobenefit from ARAs broad network across the region. Apart
from having a ready platform to leverage on the rapidly
growing logistics sector, these competitive advantages could
provide CLT with a first mover advantage when assessing real
estate solutions for its tenants, in our view
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Management TeamThe manager of Cache Logistics Trust is ARA-CWT
Management (Cache) Pte Ltd. The management team
comprise of Mr Daniel Cerf (CEO), Mr Ho Jiann Ching (Head of
Investments), Mr Foo Say Chuang (Head of Asset
Management) and Ms Serina Lim (Finance Manager).
Mr Daniel Cerf is the Chief Executive Officer of the Manager.He has more than 20 years of experience in real estate in Asia,
working on investment and development ventures in Hong
Kong, Philippines, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam
and Malaysia. Before joining the Manager, Mr Cerf was the
Deputy Chief Executive Officer of K-REIT Asia Management
Limited, the manager of K-REIT Asia a Keppel Land Limited
sponsored real estate investment trust listed on the SGX-ST in
April 2006. During Mr Cerfs tenure, the total assets under
management of K-REIT Asia grew from S$637 million in March
2006 to over S$2.1 billion.
Mr Ho Jiann Ching is the Director & Head of Investment of theManager. Mr Ho has more than 16 years experience in real
estate investment, development, asset management and
marketing in regional property markets. Before joining ARA in
2009, Mr Ho spent more than 8 years as the Director of
Business Development in Ayala International Holdings Limited.
Mr Ho began his career in 1993 as a Senior Marketing Officerwith JTC, a statutory board that controls the development and
marketing of major industrial estates in Singapore. His key
responsibilities included pricing evaluation of strategic projects
brought in by Economic Development Board of Singapore and
land-use planning based on specific industry needs.
Mr Foo Say Chuang is the Director & Head of AssetManagement. Mr Foo has more than 25 years of logistics
experience in local and multinational corporations. He was
most recently the Managing Director for CWT Limited in
charge of infrastructure & business development where he
was responsible for the development and expansion of the
Groups logistics business in Singapore and regional markets,
including Russia, India, Malaysia and Thailand. Prior to that Mr
Foo worked for several years with CWT as a General Manager
where under his helm he helped the group significantly
expand its logistics business.
Ms Serina Lim Lan Hong is the Finance Manager of the REITManager. Ms Lim has more than 18 years of experience in
audit, accounting and finance-related work including group
accounting and reporting, fund management and accounting,
tax and management of treasury operations. Prior to joining
the Manager, she was an Assistant Vice President (Fund
Finance) with RREEF Alternative Investments (Asia Pacific), the
global alternative investment management business of
Deutsche Banks Asset Management division.
Ms Lum Yuen May has recently joined CLT as its investorrelations manager and will report directly to the CEO, Mr.Daniel Cerf.
Organisation Structure of Cache Logistics Trust
Source: Manager
Chief Executive OfficerMr Daniel Cerf
Director & Head of
InvestmentMr Ho Jiann Ching
Director & Head of AssetManagementMr Foo Say Chuang
Finance ManagerMs Serina Lim Lan Hong
Investor RelationsManagerMs Lum Yuen May
Board of DirectorsMr Lim How Teck (Chairman & Non-Executive Director)
Mr Lim Hwee Chiang John (Non-Executive Director)Mr Liao Chung Lik (Non-Executive Director)
Mr Jimmy Yim Wing Kuen (Non-Executive Director)Mr Peter Chan Pee Teck (Independent Director)Ms Stefanie Yuen Thio (Independent Director)
Mr Moses K. Song (Alternate Director to Mr Lim Hwee Chiang John)
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CLTs asset portfolioQuality, well-located property portfolio. CLT stands out with itsgood quality, niche portfolio of primarily ramp-up logistics
warehouse properties. The portfolio comprises 6 buildings with
3.86msf of GFA. 97.3% of its portfolio by GFA comprises of
ramp-up logistics properties. The average age of its properties
is approximately 2.12 years. The buildings are located near the
hub of sea and air logistics activities, which will ensure
continued demand for their warehouse space.
Property Portfolio
Source: Manager
The largest component of CLTs portfolio by GFA and value is
CWT Commodity Hub, accounting for 59.5% of portfolio GFAand 44% of value. CWT Cold Hub makes up 9% of GFA but
contributes 18% of property value as refrigerated facilities
typically command higher market values. The remaining 4
properties make up 31-38% of GFA and portfolio value.
Breakdown of CLT Portfolio by GFA
Source: Manager
Breakdown of CLT Portfolio by Value
Source: Manager
Property PortfolioProperty CWT Commodity
HubCWT Cold Hub Schenker
MegahubC&P ChangiDistricentre
Hi-Speed LogisticsCentre
C&P Changi DCII
Total/Average
Asset Class Ramp-Up logistics
facility
Ramp-up cold
storage logistics
facility
Ramp-Up logistics
facility
Ramp-Up logistics
facility
Ramp-Up logistics
facility
Cargo-lift logistics
facility
Land lease tenure LH 29 yrs from 19
Aug 2006
LH 30+30 yrs from
20 Dec 2005
LH 30+30yrs from
1 Jun 2005
LH 30+30 yrs from
16 Aug 2005
LH 30+30 yrs from
16 Aug 2005
LH 30+30 yrs
from 16 Feb 1996
GFA (msf) 2.30 0.34 0.44 0.36 0.31 0.11 3.86Average Valuation
($m)
325.5 129.6 101.0 83.3 70.8 19.8 729.9Purchase Price
(S$m)
323.0 122.0 99.0 82.0 69.5 17.7 713.2Price ($psf) 141 357 225 225 225 167 185Initial Annual Rent -
Triple Net ($m)
28.9 9.8 7.4 6.1 5.2 1.5 58.9Initial Yield (%) 9.0% 8.1% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 8.6% 8.3%Lease Term (years) 5 - 10 years 5 years over 6 years 5 years over 6 years 5 years 6.4 yearsOccupancy (%) 90.6 94.4 100 100 100 79.4
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Commodity
Hub
44%
Cold Hub
18%
Schenker
14%
Changi DC
11%
Hi-Speed Log
10%
Changi DC II
3%
Commodity
Hub
60%
Cold Hub
9%
Schenker
11% Changi DC
9%
Hi-Speed Log
8%
Changi DC II
3%
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Catching logistics cycle at a low. CLTs properties are valued at$729.9m or an average $189psf of GFA. Excluding CWT Cold
Hub, which carries a higher value of $379psf ($129.6m), the
average cost of the remaining assets is $171psf.
In assessing the underlying capital value, we believe another
way of comparing capital values vis a vis other industrial Reits
would be to look at initial yields. The properties were
purchased at net initial yields of between 7.5-9.0%, reflecting
levels during the 2005-2006 era, before the sharp yield
compression of the 2007-1H08 period.
Selected Logistics Property TransactionsDate Property Company Initial yieldSep 05 Senkee Log Hub P1 Areit 7.2%Oct 05 1 Changi Sth Lane Areit 7.6%Oct 05 Logishub@Clementi Areit 8.0%Nov 05 JEL Centre Areit 7.3%*Jun 06 Logistics 21 Areit 6.6%*Jun 06 Sembawang Kimtrans Log Centre Areit 6.9%*Oct 06 Jurong Log Hub MLT 6.7%*Dec 07 Goldin Log Hub Areit 6.0%*Mar 08 Sim Siang Choon Bldg Areit 6.1%*Apr 08 Sealogistics MLT 7.9%Jun 08 Menlo (Boon Lay Way) MLT 7.9%Jun 08 Menlo (Benoi) MLT 8.4%Dec 09 SH Cogent Logistics (Penjuru) MLT 9.0%Note: * denotes estimated annualised net property income yields derived fromdeducting estimated property management fees payable from annualised gross
revenue in Yr 1 over purchase price
Source: Various companies, DBS Vickers
The outlook for the logistics-warehousing sector remains
positive given the strong demand and limited supply outlook.
According to URA statistics, in general, multi-user warehouse
capital values had declined 24% from the peak in mid 2008
and are back to 2004 level while rentals have retraced 20%
from the peak to early 2007 levels. With the improving
economic outlook and the projected strong growth in the
logistics sector, the logistics warehouse property sector has
stabilized is poised to remain robust going forward
Warehouse Rental and Occupancy
Source: URA, DBS Vickers
Driving value and growthCLTs business model has two major drivers of growth fromorganic means as well as through acquisitions. We expect nearterm earnings to be organically driven and new acquisitions topropel medium-term improvement.
Inbuilt organic growth from master lease 1.5% p.a. CLTdiffers from other industrial Sreits in terms of its rental
structure. It derives income from master leases from its 6
logistics properties. The master lease provides stable income
with an in-built growth component. Under the terms of the
agreement, CLT will buy and lease back the properties to
sponsors CWT and C&P for a triple net master lease amountingto $58.9m in the first year. There is an annual rental escalation
of 1.5% over the preceding years rent. The weighted average
lease expiry profile is 6.4 years.
CLT Existing Revenue Profile
Source: DBS Vickers
Under the triple net lease structure, the Master Lessee will be
responsible for ongoing property expenses such as land rent,
property tax, insurance, day-to-day maintenance (cleaning,
security, utilities, servicing of lifts and other M&E items).
CLTs responsibility would include structural repairs,
replacement of structural parts, replacement of M&E items.
To this end, management expects to spend a capex of
$1.7m over 2010 and 2011.
Terms of Master Lease AgreementsProperty Master Lessee Terms of Master Lease
AgreementCWT Commodity Hub CWT 5 yrs
CWT Cold Hub CWT 5 yrs
Schenker Megahub C&P Land Pte Ltd Over 6 yrs, expiring
31/08/2016
C&P Changi
Districentre
C&P Distribution
Pte Ltd
5 yrs
Hi-Speed Logistics
Centre
C&P Distribution
Pte Ltd
Over 6 yrs, expiring
15/10/2016
C&P Changi DC II C&P 5 yrsSource: Manager, DBS Vickers
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
10F 11F 12F 13F 14F 15F
Bas e rent Ann escalation
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
1998Q4 2000Q2 2001Q4 2003Q2 2004Q4 2006Q2 2007Q4 2009Q2
%
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0S $ p s f p mOccupancy LHS
Rental RHS
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Mitigating tenant concentration risk. Although CWT andC&P are the master lessees with CLT, there is minimal risk ofoverexposure to these two entities. In terms of tenants, an
estimated 94.1% of CLT occupied portfolio area is leased by
end users with the top 5 end users accounting for 56.5% of
the occupied GFA. These tenants are in a variety of trade
sectors including industrials/ consumer, commodities/
chemicals, food/ cold storage, healthcare, courier and
hospitality.
Breakdown of Tenants by Trade Sector
Source: Manager
CLTs tenants also have good credit profiles as they comprise
largely MNCs (85.2%), SMEs and government entities. Majortenants include well-known names such as DHL, Schenker,
Nippon Express and TNT.
Breakdown of End Users by Business Segment
Source: Manager
A look at the breakdown in counterparty exposure provides
further assurance of income security. Direct counterparties of
the Master Lessees comprise 3PLs, third party end users and
CWT related entities, which have in turn been fully
contracted for use by third party end users.
Master Lessees Direct Counterparty as % of Occupied GFA
Source: Manager
To minimise income volatility risk at CWT Commodity Hub,
given its significant share of the trust income, CWT has in place
3 separate lease agreements in relation to the property in the
event that the Master lease Agreement is not renewed after 5
years. The terms of the 3 leases will range from 1-5 years.
3PLs
54%
3rd party end-
users
25%
CWT related
entities
21%
MNCs
85%SMEs
9%
Govt Agencies6%
Comodities/chemical
23%
Industrial/consumer
53%
Food and cold
storage
8%Aerospace
6%Courier
2%
Heathcare
4%Hospitality
4%
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Acquisition growth matter of timeRights of first refusal (ROFR). CLT has a clear and visibleacquisition growth strategy through its right of first refusal
(ROFR) for its sponsor CWTs as well as C&Ps assets. The
ROFR applies to 13 assets located in regional logistics hub
consisting of a total gross floor area (GFA) of 3msf, c78 % of
the total GFA of the initial portfolio.
Assets in Sponsors ROFRSponsor assets Location GFA (sf) Est CompletionCWT ROFRCWT Hub 3 Spore 834,480 2011CWT Hub 1 Spore 375,233 2007
Jinshan Districentre China 145,816 2007
CWT Tianjin Logistics Hub China 84,668 2010
Others Regional 811,892
2,252,089C&P Hldgs ROFR30 Penjuru Lane 47,492 Completed
C&P Hub 3 723,151 Completed
770,643Total 3,022,732Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Assuming S$100m of acquisitions by end FY10/ beginningFY11 in our forward estimates. CLTs current aggregateleverage (gearing) is at c26% and based on a 35% gearinglimit (for REITs without a credit rating), would translate to afurther c$100m of debt that the trust can take on.
Judging from the sponsors pipeline of completed assets, ourS$100m injection will assume by the injection of C&P Hub 3,which is a 723,000 sqft property priced at S$150 psf (similarto Commodity hub), which we think is reasonable given thatthe asset has already been completed and is in the processof being filled at the moment.
Our base case scenario assumes an initial NPI yield of 8.0%,which is similar to Commodity Hub when first injectedduring IPO, and in line with latest transactions in the marketfor industrial assets in Singapore. We also note that thehigher the entry yield for new portfolio additions, the moreaccretive it is to CLTs net property income & distributableincome.
The table below shows the impact of new acquisitions basedon the various initial entry yields
Impact of New Acquisition as a % FY11 NPIInitial NPI Yield (%)
Acquisition ($m) 7% 7.5% 8% 8.5%100 12% 13% 13% 14%
Source: DBS Vickers
Impact of New Acquisition as a % FY11 distributable incomeInitial NPI Yield (%)Acquisition ($m) 7% 7.5% 8% 8.5%
100 1.6% 3.0% 5.1% 6.5%Source: DBS Vickers
Development activitiesCLTs sponsor, CWT, pioneered the development of ramp-up
logistics warehouses in Singapore and currently owns about
a quarter of the ramp up warehouse stock in Singapore. The
experience and expertise generated from these
developments is expected to benefit CLT in its futuredevelopment activities. As such, we believe CLT would be
able to leverage and benefit from this skill set and optimise
returns should it undertake any development activities in the
future.
An important part of CWTs success lies in developing strong
relationships with the global 3PLs and to focus on providing
complementary logistics services as an enabler for their
respective businesses. In our view, the ability to work closely
with the global logistics players, understanding their needs
and business trends would allow CWT and CLT to provide
the required services and real estate solutions, thus allowing
CLT to have a competitive advantage in this market segment
over an independent landlord.
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Logistics property market looking positive73.8m sqft of logistics space in Singapore. The current totalstock of logistics or warehouse space stands at c73.8m sf,
which is roughly 19% of Singapores total industrial space
as of 1Q10. Given the regular movement of goods in and
out of these properties, warehouses in Singapore are
usually accessible to major transportation nodes (eg
expressways) and located within the vicinity of major
seaports and/or airports.
Breakdown of Singapores Logistics Space
Source: URA, DBS Vickers
Accessibility is key. A majority of warehouses are situatednear the Western (ranging the Tuas, Pioneer and Penjuruand Toh Tuck region) and Eastern part (Changi, ALPS and
Paya Lebar regions) of Singapore, along the Ayer Rajah
Expressway (AYE) that runs along the southern part of
Singapore. Warehouses located in these 2 regions
represent approximately 68% of the total supply.
High occupancy levels. Good connectivity and accessibilityare key attributes for a location or property to enjoy higher
than average occupancy levels. (Western and Eastern parts
of Singapore enjoy higher than average occupancy rates at
c. 93%).
Warehouse Occupancy by Region (%) as at 3Q09
Source: URA, DBS Vickers
Key Logistics Locations in Singapore
Source: Colliers, DBS Vickers
Central
20%
East
13%
North East
5%
West
56%
North
6%
88.2
92.9
87.1
90.1
93.3
91.8
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
Central East North East North West Island
%
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Steady increase in supply. The warehouse industry has seen anaverage steady growth in total supply of 3% since 2000. Theeastern, western and northern regions of Singapore saw higher
growth largely driven by excellent connectivity and proximity to
expressways, ports and airports and their status as logistics hubs
in Singapore.
Occupancy levels trending up since 2006. Average occupancylevels have been on a steady up-trend since 2006 from a low of
86% and have remained relatively stable at 92-94% levels
despite the global economic crisis in 2008-2009.
Stock of Warehouse Space - Islandwide
Source: URA, DBS Vickers
Further new supply largely pre-committed. A total of 6.2msfof warehouse space (8% increase in warehouse inventory) isexpected to complete over the next few years. Out of this
supply, we estimate that 70-75% of this space could be
potentially pre-committed or demand driven. This is based on
the assumption that spaces termed as single user warehouse
development is driven by demand for more space and fully
taken up by its user.
Projected Total New Supply of Warehouse SpaceTotal Spacemsf) New supply(msf) % of Currentsupply
Warehouse 73.8 6.2 8%
Source: URA, Areit, DBS Vickers
Selected Major New Warehouse SpaceTotal Space (msf) % of new supply
Big Box at Jurong East by TTIntl (some delay expected) 1.0 16%
Warehouse at Jurong Pier byYang Kee Holdings 0.9 15%
Warehouse at Jurong Pier byC&P holdings 0.7 11%
Warehouse at Mandai Estate 0.5 8%
Mixed Development at MandaiEstate CMM MarketingMgmt Pte Ltd 0.3 5%
Warehouse at Simei by
Storhub Self Storage 0.3 5%
Source: URA, DBS Vickers
Demand - little speculative activity. The Singapore logisticssector historically does not face much speculative buildingactivity largely due to government planning and site restrictions.
Therefore, fluctuations in demand and supply for warehouse
space hinge largely on Singapores GDP growth and the state of
global trade.
Using historical performance as a guide, over the past decade,
we note that changes in demand and supply track closely the
growth/contraction of Singapores GDP.
Demand/ Supply of Warehouse Space vs GDP
Source: URA, DBS Vickers
Global recession in 2008-2009: weakness in rents/occupancy.Weakness in average warehouse occupancy and rental rates
observed in recent quarters (starting from 4Q08 3Q09), can
be largely attributed to weaker trade demand attributable to
the global financial crisis.
Warehouse Capital Value and Rental Index vs GDP
Source: URA, MTI, DBS Vickers
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000Q1 2001Q3 2003Q1 2004Q3 2006Q1 2007Q3 2009Q1
mq
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
WH Space Occ
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F 2011F
mil sq ft
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%% G r o w t h Y o YAnnual Supply
Annual Demand
GDP Growth RHS
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1998Q4 2000Q2 2001Q4 2003Q2 2004Q4 2006Q2 2007Q4 2009Q2
(X )
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
WH Pr ice Index WH Renta l Index GDP Growth YoY RHS
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Uptrend in rentals and capital values. On the back of recoveringGDP and improving trade conditions, rentals for and capital
values for warehouse spaces have remained stable and inched
up slightly in 1Q10. We expect rental and occupancy levels for
warehouse facilities to remain relatively resilient moving
forward.
Warehouse Rental and Occupancy
Source: URA, DBS Vickers
Ramp-up warehouses Unique specsWhat are ramp up warehouses? Ramp-up warehouses aresimilar to conventional multi-storey warehouse developments
but with a ramp that allows direct vehicular access to all
warehouse units at each level. One of the earlier ramp-up
warehouse developments in Singapore was the Jurong logistics
Hub at Jalan Buroh (near Jurong Port). This asset currently
resides within Mapletree Logistics Trust portfolio.
Jurong Logistics Hub (Mapletree Logistics Trust)
Source: MLT website, DBS Vickers
Driving up all the way in all weather conditions. The distinctivefeature of ramp-up warehouse is in its ramp that allows two-way access for 45-foot container trucks to deliver/load goods to
warehouse facilities at every floor in all weather conditions. This
is significantly different from conventional cargo-lift warehouses
where trucks will have to queue and wait for available lift space
to send their goods up to their dedicated section of the
warehouse.
Schenker Megahub (CLT portfolio)
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
Limited in supply 3.8% of total industrial space. The totalspace of ramp-up warehouse in Singapore is estimated at about
15.3m sqft, which constitutes only 19% of total warehouse
inventory and 3.8% of the total industrial supply in Singapore.
Ramp-up warehouses are also primarily located in major
logistics zones near the sea/airports at the Western and Eastern
part of Singapore at Airport Logistics Park of Singapore (ALPS)
near Changi Airport, and in Penjuru area near the Jurong Port
so as to expedite the ease and efficiency of transport.
Breakdown of Industrial Space Supply by Type
Source: URA, Colliers, DTZ, DBS Vickers
Business Parks
3%
Multiple User Factory
23%
Warehouses
19%
Single User Factory
55%
Ramp-up
21%
Other
warehouse
79%
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
1998Q4 2000Q2 2001Q4 2003Q2 2004Q4 2006Q2 2007Q4 2009Q2
%
-
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0S$ ps f pmOccupancy LHS
Rental RHS
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Major Locations of Ramp-up WarehousesEstimated Ramp-upwarehouse stock as of 3Q09(msf)East
Airport Logistics Park of Singapore(ALPS) 3.2Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore(CAAS) Megaplex 0.3
Changi North 0.8
Changi South and Changi Lane 0.6
WestJalan Nuroh 1.8
Penjuru 6.4
Tuas 2.0
Toh Tuck 0.2Total Stock 15.3Source; DBS Vickers, Colliers
Limited new supply. The relatively large size and shaperequirement of each property development is both its selling
and limiting factor. While the size allows for the storage of large
and bulky items, the need to have large land parcels of a
specific shape in order to construct these properties in land-
scarce Singapore limits the development of future ramp-up
warehouse.
According to property consultant Colliers, new supply of ramp-
up facilities entering the market in the next 3 years is estimated
at about 1.5 msf (or c10% of current supply) at 2 locations.
Resilient demand from end users for ramp-up developments.Users, especially logistics service providers and manufacturers
have accepted the ramp-up warehouse concept, given the
attractiveness of having direct vehicular access to the
warehouse. This modern feature translates to more efficient use
of various floors of space, ease of delivering goods straight to
specific loading docks at respective warehouse units, allowing
fast and efficient loading, resulting in improved operational
efficiency, effective allocation of manpower and resources, and
cost and time savings.
Strong utilization rates of 98%. Utilization levels at ramp-upwarehouses are relatively high, evidenced by the better than
average occupancies of c98% as of 3Q09 amongst ramp-up
warehouses. This is higher than the average occupancy of
average warehouse properties in Jurong and Tuas.
Average Warehouse Occupancy as of 3Q09
Source: Colliers, DBS VickersRamp-up warehouses demonstrated resilience. Thesewarehouses also enjoyed relative resilience through the recent
crisis in 2008-2009. This was reflected in Jurong Logistics Hub
performance (in the portfolio of publicly listed Mapletree
Logistics Trust (MLT) since 2006) over the period with
occupancy levels trending upwards and rents remaining stable.
Case Study: Jurong Logistics Hub operational performanceOccupancy(%) Revenues($m) Average Rent ($psf/mth)
2006 96.4% 2.8* 1.05
2007 99.8% 14.7 1.032008 99.7% 16.5 1.03
2009 96.6% 17.3 1.04* Note: Partial recognition (purchased in Oct 06)Source: MLT annual reports, DBS Vickers
Sustained demand for ramp-up warehouse facilities. Lookingahead, with an improved economic outlook and global trade
environment, we believe that demand for warehouse space will
continue to be strong. In addition to this, the operational
efficiencies of ramp-up warehouses stand out and we believe
this will translate to strong demand for such space.
In addition, given the lack of significant competition from newsupply and the lack of large land parcels allocated for such use,
it is expected that occupancy levels and rentals for ramp up
logistics warehouses will be sustainable in 2010.
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Isla ndwide Changi Jurong Tua s Ramp-up
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Financials Income Statement Steady 1.5% growth in topline. CLTs rental income isexpected to grow by 1.5% annually due to an annual
escalation clause built into its master lease arrangements. This
will provide secure organic growth for CLT over the next five
years. It is to be noted that for FY10F, we have pro-rated the
earnings to 8 months given that CLT was listed back in April
2010.
Contribution from S$100m acquisition assumption inFY11. We have included in our forecasts contribution from aS$100m sized acquisition pegged to a net property income
yield of 8.0%. This will boost CLT net property income by
13% (compared against FY10F annualized income of S$59m)
Net property income margins of 97%. Due to thetriple net lease arrangements with the respective master
lessees, CLT will only need to incur the property management
fees accruing to the property manager. These fees, will
consist mainly of (i) property management fees which is
based on 2% of gross rental of its property and (ii) lease
management fees, which is based on 1% of the gross rental
of its property and (iii) reimbursable expenses. The manager
has waived the lease management fee in relation to the initial
portfolio for a period of 3 years.
Interest cost assumed at 4.5%. Interest cost isexpected to remain relatively stable. CLT has secured
financing facilities at an average all in rate of 4.5% pa
(inclusive of upfront fee capitalized at 0.8% pa and margin).
As the majority of CLTs operational expenses are fixed,
variability in earnings and distributable income will hinge on
changes in borrowing costs. In our analysis, every 25 bps
increase/decline in borrowing costs will decrease/increase
distributable income by c1.0-1.1%.
Sensitivity of Interest Rate Changes on Distribution IncomeFY10* Chg FY11 Chg FY12 Chg
-50bps 33.8 2.1% 53.0 2.1% 54.8 2.1%
-25bps 33.4 1.0% 52.5 1.1% 54.2 1.0%
Base 33.1 NA 52.0 NA 53.7 NA
+25 bps 32.8 -1.0% 51.5 -1.1% 53.2 -1.0%
+50 bps 32.4 -2.1% 51.0 -2.1% 52.6 -2.1%
* pro-rated as listing is in April 2010.
Source: DBS Vickers
Distribution income 100% till 2011. CLTsdistribution policy is to distribute 100% of its taxable income
and tax-exempt income up to 31 Dec 2011. There after, CLT
will distribute at least 90% of its taxable and tax-exempt
income. We have assumed CLT to maintain a 100% payout inour forward forecasts post 2011.
Statement of Total Return (S$ m)FY Dec 2010F* 2011F 2012FGross revenue 37 68 69
Property expenses (1) (1) (1)Net Property Income 36 67 68Other Operating expenses (4) (7) (6)
Other Non Opg (Exp)/Inc 0 0 0
Net Interest (Exp)/Inc (6) (13) (13)
Exceptional Gain/(Loss) 0 0 0
Net Income 26 47 48Tax 0 0 0
Minority Interest 0 0 0
Preference Dividend 0 0 0Net Income After Tax 26 47 48Total Return 43 47 48
Non-tax deductible Items (10) 5 6
Net Inc available for Dist. 33 52 54
Revenue Gth (%) N/A 84.8 1.5
N Property Inc Gth (%) N/A 84.8 1.5
Net Inc Gth (%) N/A 76.7 3.5
Dist. Payout Ratio (%) 100.0 100.0 100.0
* Pro-rated , taking into account listing in Apr 2010
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
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Financials Balance Sheet Property value of $729.9m. Our FY10 balance sheet,includes the following assumptions: i) CLT will purchase the
initial portfolio at $713.2m, representing a c2% discount to
independent valuations, ii) CLT to revalue the properties up to
its independent valuations (as of latest date) iii) inclusive of
capitalized acquisition costs, total property value works out to
be $730.7m.
Total loan of $191m. We have assumed that CLT willdraw down $191m as part consideration to purchase the
initial portfolio inclusive of upfront costs.
Loan facilities lined up. We would like to note that CLThas in place a loan commitment from Macquarie Bank Ltd,
Standard Chartered Bank and DBS Bank secured over the
properties totaling c$225.2m (consisting of a TLF of up to
$200.3m and a RCF of $25m) and will mature 4 years from
the date of the first draw-down.
CLT has drawn down S$191m of its current existing facilities,
and we have assumed an all in cost of 4.5% in our models.
Asset acquisition of S$100m in FY11F. We have assumeda S$100m debt funded acquisition in our forward estimates.
This is expected to bring gearing up to 35% level.
Balance Sheet (S$ m)FY Dec 2010F 2011F 2012FInvestment Properties 731 832 832
Other LT Assets 0 0 0
Cash & ST Invts 9 9 8Inventory 0 0 0Debtors 1 1 1Other Current Assets 0 0 0Total Assets 740 842 841ST Debt 0 100 100
Other Current Liabilities 3 5 5
LT Debt 191 196 201
Other LT Liabilities 0 0 0
Unit holders funds 546 541 535
Minority Interests 0 0 0Total Funds & Liabilities 740 842 841Non-Cash Wkg. Capital (2) (4) (4)
Net Cash/(Debt) (182) (287) (293)
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
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Financials Cash flow Statement Capex requirement. CLT will be responsible for thestructural repairs/replacement of structural parts of thebuildings and the replacement of electrical and mechanicalitems. Given that the buildings are relatively new and thatthe lease terms are on a triple-net basis, capital expenditureis expected to be minimal, and forecasted to be c$1.7mover the next 2 years. In addition, we have assumed anannual capital expenditure of S$0.6m for structural M&E
and wear and tear. We have also assumed a further $1m
capex in year 10 for additional replacement of capitalequipment.
Distributions up to 112% of operating CF.Distributions amount to approximately 112% of net incomeas part of the managers fees are payable in units.
Cash Flow Statement (S$ m)FY Dec 2010F 2011F 2012FPre-Tax Income 26 47 48
Dep. & Amort. 0 0 0
Tax Paid 0 0 0
Associates &JV Inc/(Loss) 0 0 0
Chg in Wkg.Cap. 2 2 0
Other Operating CF 0 0 0Net Operating CF 28 48 48Net Invt in Properties (714) (101) (1)
Other Invts (net) 0 0 0
Invts in Assoc. & JV 0 0 0
Div from Assoc. & JVs 0 0 0
Other Investing CF 0 0 0
Net Investing CF (714) (101) (1)Distribution Paid (33) (52) (54)
Chg in Gross Debt 191 105 5
New units issued 536 0 0
Other Financing CF 0 0 0Net Financing CF 694 53 (49)Net Cashflow 9 0 (1)
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
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Financials ROE Drivers High operating income margins of 98% in FY10-11F.As CLTs rental income are on a triple-net basis, net
operating income margins is expected to remain high at
98% going forward ( less of fee payable to property
manager).
Gearing assumed to head towards 35%. CLTs currentgearing level of 26% is low compared to S-REIT peers
average of 32%, it is projected to head up towards c35%
level in FY11F post acquisitions.
Interest cover of over 4.5x. Interest cover is expected toremain well over 4.5x in forward years even after assuming
S$100m worth of added acquisitions, indicating strong
financial health of CLT with minimal stress on debt
covenants going forward.
Rates & RatioFY Dec 2010F 2011F 2012FNet Prop Inc Margins (%) 98.0 98.0 98.0
Net Income Margins (%) 71.4 68.3 69.6
Dist to revenue (%) 89.3 76.3 77.8
Managers & Trustees fees 10.4 10.2 9.0
to sales (%)
ROAE (%) 9.6 8.6 8.9
ROA (%) 7.1 5.9 5.7
ROCE (%) 8.8 7.6 7.4
Int. Cover (x) 5.4 4.5 4.6Current Ratio (x) 3.7 0.1 0.1
Quick ratio (x) 3.7 0.1 0.1
Aggregate Leverage (%) 26.1 35.6 35.2
Operating CFPS (S cts) 4.2 7.3 7.5
Free CFPS (S cts) (108.3) (8.3) 7.4
Source: Company, DBS Vickers
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ValuationInitiate with BUY, TP S$1.05 based on DDM. We initiatecoverage on CLT with a target price of S$1.05 based the
dividend discount method (DDM). We believe that DDM is
an appropriate valuation metric as its distribution income is
projected to be steady and as such, readily quantified.
Distributions amount to approximately 112% of net income
as part of the managers fees are payable in units.
Our base case DDM model uses distribution payment
forecasted for the next 10 years, 100% payout ratio and is
discounted by a cost of equity of 8.48% (Risk free rate
assumption of 3.25%, beta of 0.85x).
Total return of 19%. Our target price of S$1.05 offers atotal return of 19% from last closing price of S$0.95 backed
by a solid FY10F -11F dividend yield of annualised 8.0-8.6%
Dividend Discount ModelFYE Dec ($m) 10F 11F 12F 13F 14F 15F 16F 17F 18F 19F TerminalValueDist inc 33.4 52.0 53.7 53.7 54.5 55.2 55.7 56.1 56.6 57.0 796.5Discounted dist inc 30.7 44.2 42.0 38.8 36.3 33.9 31.5 29.3 27.2 25.3 352.1Number of units (m) 634.4 638.3 642.1 646.0 649.9 653.8 657.8 661.7 665.6 669.6 669.6PV of dist inc 339.2PV of terminal value 352.1Total 691.3Ave no of units 654.9DDM/unit 1.05 AssumptionsRisk free rate 3.25%Mkt risk premium 6.2%Beta 0.85xCost of equity 8.5%Debt / Equity ratio 30/70Cost of debt 4.5%Terminal Growth 1%
Source: DBS Vickers
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S-REIT peer valuationSharePrice Rec'd TargetPrice Upside DPU Yield (%) P/Bk NAV($) (S$) (%) FY09 FY10 FY11 (x)
Office @09/06/10Frasers Commercial Trust 0.14 HOLD 0.16 14% 4.3% 7.9% 8.6% 0.52
CapitaCommercial Trust 1.15 HOLD 1.24 8% 6.2% 6.1% 5.8% 0.84
K-REIT 1.08 HOLD 1.17 8% 8.1% 6.4% 6.1% 0.73
Office Sector Average 6.2% 6.8% 6.8% 0.70Retail/MixedCapitaMall Trust 1.82 BUY 2.02 10% 4.8% 5.1% 5.2% 1.19
CapitaRetail China Trust 1.20 HOLD 1.20 0% 6.7% 7.0% 7.1% 1.09Frasers Centrepoint Trust 1.31 BUY 1.63 24% 5.8% 6.2% 6.4% 1.06
Starhill Global Reit 0.54 BUY 0.73 35% 10.4% 7.4% 8.1% 0.66
Suntec REIT 1.31 BUY 1.47 12% 9.0% 7.4% 7.1% 0.73
Retail/Mixed Average 7.3% 6.6% 6.8% 0.95IndustrialA-REIT + 1.82 HOLD 2.11 16% 7.1% 7.5% 7.8% 1.17
Ascendas India Trust + 0.93 BUY 1.14 23% 8.1% 8.6% 9.3% 1.03
Mapletree Logistics Trust 0.83 BUY 0.93 13% 7.3% 7.4% 7.8% 0.93
Cambridge Ind Trust 0.48 BUY 0.54 13% 10.9% 10.5% 10.3% 0.81
Industrial Average 8.4% 8.5% 8.8% 0.98HospitalityAscott Residence Trust 1.09 BUY 1.44 32% 6.6% 6.9% 7.7% 0.83
CDL Hospitality Trust 1.71 BUY 2.20 29% 5.0% 6.7% 7.3% 1.20
Hospitality Average 5.8% 6.8% 7.5% 1.01HealthcareParkway Life 1.36 BUY 1.51 12% 5.7% 6.0% 6.1% 0.99
S-REIT Sector 6.7% 6.9% 7.2% 0.92
Cache Logistics Trust 0.95 BUY 1.05 11% - 8.0%* 8.6% 1.08+ DPU estimates for Areit and Ascendas India is based on FY10/FY11/FY12
* Annualized based on a DPU of 5.2 Scts
Source: DBS Vickers, Companies
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Appendix A: List of CLTs directorsBoard of DirectorsName Appointment Current OccupationMr Lim How Teck Chairman and Independent
DirectorMr Lim is the Chairman of Certis CISCO Security Pte. Ltd., Deputy Chairman of TuasPower Ltd and an Independent Non-Executive Director of ARA, Eng Kong HoldingsLimited, IFS Capital Limited, Lasseters International Holdings Limited and MermaidMaritime Public Company Limited. In addition, he is an Independent Non-ExecutiveDirector of M&C REIT Management Limited (manager of CDL Hospitality REIT), M&CBusiness Management Limited (trustee-manager of CDL Hospitality Business Trust),MacarthurCook Investment Managers (Asia) Limited (manager of MacarthurCookIndustrial REIT), Rickmers Trust Management Pte. Ltd. (trustee-manager of RickmersMaritime) and a governor of the Foundation for Development Cooperation.
Mr Lim Hwee Chiang John Non-Executive Director Mr Lim is the Group Chief Executive Officer and an Executive Director of ARA. He isalso a Director of ARA Asset Management (Singapore) Limited (manager of FortuneREIT), ARA Trust Management (Suntec) Limited (manager of Suntec REIT), ARA AssetManagement (Prosperity) Limited (manager of Prosperity REIT listed in Hong Kong) andAm ARA REIT Managers Sdn. Bhd. (manager of AmFIRST REIT listed in Malaysia) andChairman of APM Property Management Pte. Ltd. and Suntec Singapore InternationalConvention & Exhibition Services Pte. Ltd.Mr Lim brings to the board more than 28 years of experience in real estate. Prior tofounding ARA, from 1997 to 2002, he was an Executive Director of GRA (Singapore)Pte. Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Prudential (US) Real Estate Investors.
Mr Liao Chung Lik Non-Executive Director Mr Liao is a Director of CWT Limited and a number of private companies. He iscurrently the Deputy Group Managing Director of C&P Holdings Pte Ltd, in charge ofthe Groups finance and assisting the Group Managing Director in overseeing theactivities of the Group. In 1994, Mr Liao was promoted to Deputy Managing Directorof the C&P Group to assist the Managing Director of the C&P Group in the day-to-dayrunning of the C&P Group. In October 2004, Mr Liao assisted the Managing Director
of the C&P Group in the successful acquisition of CWT Limited.
Mr Jimmy Yim Wing Kuen Independent Director Mr Yim sits on the Boards of Concord Energy Pte Ltd, CWT Limited, Twentieth CenturyFox Film (East) Pte Ltd, Alife Ltd, Low Keng Huat (Singapore) Ltd and SingaporeMedical Group Limited. He is currently the Managing Director of the Litigation &Dispute Resolution Department of Drew & Napier LLC, a leading legal practice inSingapore, established since 1889. He was admitted to the Singapore Bar in 1983 andis one of the earliest batches of Senior Counsel being appointed in January 1998. Hispractice covers a range of civil and commercial law, criminal law and internationalcommercial arbitrations.
Ms Stefanie Yuen Thio Independent Director Ms Thio is the joint managing director of TSMP Law Corporation and is the head of itscorporate practice. She was admitted to the Singapore Bar in 1994 and her areas ofexpertise include mergers and acquisitions, equity capital markets, corporatetransactions and regulatory advice. Her clients have included logistics companies, realestate investment trusts and real estate investment trust managers. Prior to joining
TSMP Law Corporation in 1998 when it was established, she practised law at KhattarWong & Partners from 1994 to 1996, and thereafter at Yeo Wee Kiong & Partnersfrom 1996 to 1998. Ms Thio graduated from the National University of Singapore with an LLB (Hons) degree in 1993.
Mr Moses K. Song Non-Executive Director Mr Moses K. Song has extensive experience in Asian real estate both in a principalinvesting and legal advisory capacity. He is currently the Director, Corporate BusinessDevelopment of ARA, responsible for leading the business development efforts of theARA Group.Prior to joining ARA in 2009, Mr Song was a Principal and served as theChief Operating Officer of Lubert-Adler Asia Advisors Pte. Ltd., the Asia investmentplatform of US-based real estate private equity firm Lubert-Adler Partners, L.P., wherehe was responsible for North Asia investment opportunities.
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
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Appendix B: Portfolio Property DescriptionsCWT Commodity HubOne giant in Penjuru. CWT Commodity Hub is locatedwithin the Penjuru / Pandan area in the Jurong Industrial
Estate, one of Singapores key logistics clusters within the
Jurong Industrial Precinct. It is in close proximity to the PSA
Terminals, Jurong Port, Jurong Island and is well served by
major roads, expressways and the public transport system.
CWT Commodity Hub is the largest and newest warehouse
in Singapore and one of the largest in Southeast Asia,
spanning close to 2.3 m sq ft of GFA over 5 levels in 2adjoining warehouse buildings served by a vehicular ramp in
the center. The integrated warehouse complex includes
ramp-up warehouses with mezzanine offices and office
annex, as well as a 120k sq ft ancillary container yard.
The property has an average floor plate of 448,000msf GFA
per storey, allowing users greater efficiencies in
consolidating and stacking their goods in one area.
LME approved space. Approximately 100,000msf of GFA islicensed as LME approved warehouse space for metals.
CWTs subsidiary, CWT Commodities (Metals) Pte Ltd is one
of a total of 26 LME licensed operators globally, most of
which are in Europe as at 30 Sept 2009.
CWT Commodity Hub
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
CWT Commodity Hub Location
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Selected property informationOccupancy by end-users 90.6%(1)Property Type Ramp-up logistics facilityLease Tenure JTC leasehold of 29 years from 19 August 2006Land Area 918,399 sfGross Floor Area(2) 2,295,994 sfContainer Yard Area 120,000 sfValuation by CBRE $324.9 mValuation by Knight Frank $326.1 mAverage Valuation $325.5 mPurchase Price $323.0 mNote:
(1) This does not include the part of Phase 2 of CWT Commodity Hub which received the temporary occupation permit on 28 September 2009 and 19 October 2009(2) The GFA does not include CWT Commodity Hubs total container yard area of 120,000 sq ft.
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Jurong Port CWTCommodityHub
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CWT Cold HubOnly one in Singapore. CWT Cold Hub is located within afood zone that is close to the Fishery Port (with close
proximity to food processing facilities), the PSA Terminals
and Jurong Port. It is also well connected to major
expressways (AYE and the Jurong East MRT station).
The 2-storey ramp up facility is also equipped with a modern
cold storage facility with variable temperature control for a
variety of food usages. The combination of having such a
modern cold store facility in close proximity to sea ports is
extremely rare in Singapore due to land zoning constraints
and high barriers to entry due to construction costs.
Unbroken cold chain access. CWT Cold Hub offers usersunbroken cold chain access (i.e. goods being moved are not
exposed to ambient temperatures) while moving goods in
and out of the warehouse, resulting in a significant
competitive advantage for the storage and distribution of
frozen goods.
Additional space available for conversion to cold storage.CWT Cold Hub also has 117,664 sf of ambient warehouse
space, which can be easily converted to cold storage space
when given suitable demand.
CWT Cold Hub
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
CWT Cold Hub location
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Selected property informationOccupancy by end-users 94.4%Property Type Ramp-up cold storage logistics facilityLease Tenure JTC Leasehold of 30 + 30 years from 20 December 2005Land Area 254,904 sfGross Floor Area 341,944 sf
Cold Room: 158,882 sf
Ambient Warehouse: 117,664 sf
Ancillary Office and Service Area: 65,398 sf
Valuation by CBRE $130.0 mValuation by Knight Frank $129.1 mAverage Valuation $129.6 mPurchase Price $122.0 m
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
CWT Cold Hub
Jurong P ort
CWT Cold Hub
Jurong P ort
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Schenker MegahubSingle User 3PL facility. Schenker Megahub, located at 51ALPS Avenue, is the largest freight and logistics property
located at the ALPS, a 26 hectare Free Trade Zone (FTZ)
adjacent to Changi Airport. ALS offers a location where 3PLs
and international freight forwarders can leverage on the
proximity and connectivity to Changi Airport for a quick
turnaround of value-added logistics and regional distribution
activities. Schenker Megahub houses Schenkers Asia- Pacific
headquarters.
Mixed development. Schenker Megahub is a purpose-builteight-storey ramp-up logistics facility comprising four levelsof warehouses and an eight-storey office block. The building
offers temperature and humidity controlled facilities
including pharmaceutical, nutritional storage rooms and
cold rooms.
Schenker Megahub caters to the handling of pharmaceutical
and healthcare products and ground floor warehouse space
with grade-level loading bays specifically designed for the
warehousing and supply chain needs of the aerospace
sector in Singapore.
Limited supply in ALPS. The ALPS is almost fully occupied by3PLs and has limited potential for incumbent competing
supply with only one unallocated plot of 2.57 hectare
remaining. This piece of land is triangular in shape, and
represents 9.9% of total land area at ALPS.
Schenker Megahub
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Schenker Megahub location
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Selected property informationOccupancy by end-users 100%Property Type Ramp-up logistics facilityLease Tenure JTC Leasehold of 30 + 30 years from 1 June 2005Land Area 220,143 sfGross Floor Area 439,956 sfValuation by CBRE $100.8 mValuation by Knight Frank $101.2 mAverage Valuation $101.0 mPurchase Price $99.0 m
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Schenker MegahubSchenker Megahub
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C&P Changi DistricentreLocated in Eastern logistics hub. C&P Changi Districentreis located along Changi South Lane and is approximately
15 km from the city centre. It is situated within the
Changi International LogisPark (South), which is one of
Singapores most established logistics clusters.
Located near Changi international airport. This logisticscluster is strategically located near Changi Airport and
is dedicated to logistics companies that require
connectivity and proximity to the airport and is a
choice location for internationally-renowned logistics
specialists. Developments in the vicinity comprisepurpose-built warehouses and factory buildings that
are generally engaged in the air-freight logistics/
distribution trade.
It is well served by expressways/ major roads such as
the East Coast Parkway (ECP), Pan-IslandExpressway (PIE), Xilin Avenue and Upper ChangiRoad and is within close proximity to Changi Airport.
There is no additional potential supply at Changi
LogisPark (South) expected because all the land plots
have been fully allocated.
Highly functional warehouse. C&P Changi Districentreis a modern six-storey ramp-up warehouse facility with
modern specifications and is one of the only two
ramp-up warehouses in Changi International LogisPark
(South). It comprises a warehouse, 53 covered loading
bays and associated mezzanine offices from its first to
fifth storey and one whole level of office space at its
sixth storey. It is a highly functional warehouse facility.
C&P Changi Districentre
Source: Manager, DBS VickersC&P Changi Districentre location
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Selected property informationOccupancy by end-users 100%Property Type Ramp-up logistics facilityLease Tenure JTC Leasehold of 30 + 30 years from 16 August 2005Land Area 145,750 sfGross Floor Area 364,278 sfValuation by CBRE $83.4 mValuation by Knight Frank $83.2 mAverage Valuation $83.3 mPurchase Price $82.0 mSource: Manager, DBS Vickers
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Hi-Speed Logistic CentreLocation in a FTZ near Changi Airport. Hi-Speed LogisticsCentre is located at 40 ALPS Avenue, a 26 hectare Free
Trade Zone (FTZ) adjacent to Changi Airport. ALS offers a
location where 3PLs and international freight forwarders can
leverage on the proximity and connectivity to Changi Airport
for quick turnaround of value-added logistics and regional
distribution activities.
Highly functional. The warehouse comprises of four levels ofwarehouse space and seven levels of office space. The
warehouse floors are vertically accessed via a combinationof ramp and cargo lift facilities.
Home to Nippon Express. Hi-Speed Logistics Centre is thenational head office and air cargo branch of Nippon
Express (Singapore) Pte Ltd whose operations include
warehousing, international freight transportation,
inventory management, trade facilitation, regional
transhipment, vendor-managed inventory and hubbing
solution concepts are conducted.
Limited supply in ALPS. The ALPS is almost fully occupied by3PLs and has limited potential new competing supply with
only one unallocated plot of 2.57 hectare remaining. This
piece of land is triangular in shape, and represents 9.9% of
total land area at ALPS.
Hi-Speed Logistics Centre
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Hi-Speed Logistics Centre location
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Selected property informationOccupancy by end-users 100%Property Type Ramp-up logistics facilityLease Tenure JTC Leasehold of 30 + 30 years from 16 August 2005Land Area 161,459 sfGross Floor Area 308,626 sfValuation by CBRE $70.7 mValuation by Knight Frank $70.9 mAverage Valuation $70.8 mPurchase Price $69.5 mSource: Manager, DBS Vickers
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C&P Changi Districentre IILocated in Eastern logistics hub. C&P Changi DC II, which islocated at 3 Changi South Street, is a highly functional
cargo lift logistics facility comprising three levels of
warehouse and a four-storey ancillary office building.
Located within the Changi International LogisPark (South),
which is a 43-hecture hub and one of Singapores most
established logistics clusters.
Choice location near the international airport. Thislogistics cluster is strategically located near Changi Airport
and is dedicated to logistics companies that requireconnectivity and proximity to the airport and is a choice
location for internationally-renown logistics specialists. It is
well served by expressways/ major roads such as the East
Coast Parkway (ECP), Pan-Island Expressway (PIE), XilinAvenue and Upper Changi Road and is within close
proximity to Changi Airport.
There is no additional potential supply at Changi LogisPark
(South) expected because all the land plots have been fully
allocated.
C&P Changi DC II
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
C&P Changi DC II location
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
Selected property informationOccupancy by end-users 79.4%Property Type Cargo-lift logistics facilityLease Tenure JTC Leasehold of 30 + 30 years from 16 February 1996Land Area 65,762 sfGross Floor Area 105,945 sfValuation by CBRE $19.7 mValuation by Knight Frank $19.8 mAverage Valuation $19.8 mPurchase Price $17.7 m
Source: Manager, DBS Vickers
C&P Changi DC I I
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DBSV recommendations are based an Absolute Total Return* Rating system, defined as fol lows:
STRONG BUY (>20% total return over the next 3 months, with identifiable share price catalysts within this time frame)BUY (>15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, >10% for large caps)HOLD (-10 to +15% total return over the next 12 months for small caps, -10 to +10% for large caps)FULLY VALUED (negative total return i.e. > -10% over the next 12 months)SELL (negative total return of > -20% over the next 3 months, with identifiable catalysts within this time frame)Share price appreciation + dividends
DBS Vickers Research is available on the following electronic platforms: DBS Vickers (www.dbsvresearch.com); Thomson(www.thomson.com/financial); Factset (www.factset.com); Reuters (www.rbr.reuters.com); Capital IQ (www.capitaliq.com) and Bloomberg(DBSR GO). For access, please contact your DBSV salesperson.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMERThis document is published by DBS Vickers Research (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVR"), a direct wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS VickersSecurities (Singapore) Pte Ltd ("DBSVS") and an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Vickers Securities Holdings Pte Ltd ("DBSVH").[This report is intended for clients of DBSV Group only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in anyform by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of DBSVR.]
The research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty asto its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared forgeneral circulation. Any recommendation contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financialsituation and the particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is for the information of addressees only and is not to be takenin substitution for the exercise of judgement by addressees, who should obtain separate legal or financial advice. DBSVR accepts no liabilitywhatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or further communication given in relation to thisdocument. This document is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. DBSVH is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DBS Bank Ltd. DBS Bank Ltd along with its affiliates and/or persons associated with any of them may from time totime have interests in the securities mentioned in this document. DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and their associates, their directors, and/or
employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securities mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to performbroking, investment banking and other banking services for these companies.
The assumptions for commodities in this report are for the purpose of forecasting earnings of the companies mentioned herein. They arenot to be construed as recommendations to trade in the physical commodities or in futures contracts relating to the commoditiesmentioned in this report.
DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in any investment banking transactionas a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing to obtain further information, including any clarificationon disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction in any security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.
ANALYST CERTIFICATIONThe research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in part or in whole, certifies that the views about thecompanies and their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part ofhis/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. As of9 Jun 2010, the analyst and his / her spouse and/or relatives who are financially dependent on the analyst, do not hold interests in the
securities recommended in this report (interest includes direct or indirect ownership of securities, directorships and trustee positions).
COMPANY-SPECIFIC / REGULATORY DISCLOSURES1. DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries do not have a proprietary position in the mentioned
company as of 07-Jun-2010
2. DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBS Vickers Securities (USA) Inc ("DBSVUSA"), a U.S.-registeredbroker-dealer, may beneficially own a total of 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of the CDL HT as of9 Jun 2010.
3. Compensation for investment banking services:a) DBSVR, DBSVS, DBS Bank Ltd and/or other affiliates of DBSVUSA have received compensation, within the past 12
months, and within the next 3 months receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking servicesfrom the Fraser Centrepoint, Fraser Commercial Trust, Ascendas Reit, Capitacommercial Trust, Capitmall Trust,K-Reit, Starhill, Parkway Life.
b) DBSVUSA does not have its own investment banking or research department, nor has it participated in anyinvestment banking transaction as a manager or co-manager in the past twelve months. Any US persons wishing toobtain further information, including any clarification on disclosures in this disclaimer, or to effect a transaction inany security discussed in this document should contact DBSVUSA exclusively.
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