2010 Census Lookout

2010 Census

USS CTPP

Slides available at http://edthefed.com/

Ed Christopher Resource Center Planning TeamFederal Highway Administration

19900 Governors DriveOlympia Fields, IL 60461

708-283-3534edc@EdTheFed.com

2010 Census

ACS and CTPP

Census 2010It’s Only a Short Form Questionnaire

7 Questions Name Sex Age

Relationship Hispanic Origin

Race Owner/Renter

http://www.census.gov/

Not a bad website

http://www.census.gov/2010census/

2010 and more

2010 Timeline

Department of AdministrationDemographic Services Center101 E. Wilson St., 10th Floor, PO Box 8944Madison, WI 53708-8944Mr. Philip Wellsphilip.wells@wisconsin.gov(608) 266-1927

Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA)

Boundary and Annexation Survey (BAS)http://www.census.gov/geo/www/bas/bashome.html

School District Review Program (SDRP)http://www.census.gov/geo/www/schdist/sch_dist.html

Participant Statistical Areas Program (PSAP)

Tribal Statistical Areas Program (TSAP)http://www.census.gov/geo/www/tsap2010/tsap2010.html

UZA Definitions

http://www.census.gov/geo/www/

Geography Programs

http://www.census.gov/geo/www/luca2010/luca.html

Appeal Time

http://www.census.gov/geo/www/psap2010/psap2010_main.html

MAF/TIGER Partnership Software

http://www.census.gov/geo/www/psap2010/cbt/index.htm

PSAP Draft Schedule as of March 2008

http://www.census.gov/geo/www/psap2010/psap2010_main.html

Gail A. Krmenec, Geographic CoordinatorU.S. Census Bureau500 West Madison Street, Suite 1600Chicago, Illinois 60661-4555Voice: (312) 454-2714FAX : (312) 488-1510Email: gail.a.krmenec@census.gov

Urbanized Area Definitions

http://www.chrispy.net/pipermail/ctpp-news/2008-July/001695.html

2000 density based, automated process, identified urban clusters (2,500 pop), ignored place

boundaries

2010 still in internal discussionsInvestigating use of place of work data

Reviewing land use covers and digital elevation maps

Thinking about household densities

Look for criteria for defining urbanized areas and clusters in Spring 2009 in Federal Register

http://trbcensus.com/

The Transportation Side“Long Form” to ACS

1960 OMB Journey-to-Work Tables

1970 and 1980 Urban Transportation Planning Package (UTPP)

1990 and 2000 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)

At ResidenceAt Workplace

Flows between Home and Work

Do we all know what the ACS is?

Remember The Long Form is DeadNada, History, Kaput!

Census Transportation

Planning Products

The CTPP embodies a collection of Census Data used for Transportation Planning. With changing data needs and the ACS, there will be a variety of different products useful for transportation planning emanating from Census Data. There will be Special Tabulations, Standard Tables and even Value Added-products. The CTPP captures all of these.

Think of CTPP as a place to look for Census Data products to help with your Transportation needs

Enter the ACS era…

Journey to Work

Data

What were the sizes of the JTW data products and who paid for them?

Buyers/Users Direct Cost Tables

1960 OMB ??? ???

1970 112 $0.6 M 43

1980 152 $2.0 M 82

1990 $2.5 M 120

2000 $3.0 M 203

2005 + AASHTO Consolidated Purchase $5.9 Million

All States and MPOs

$5,920,003 TOTAL

$465,000 Oversight Activities

$2,980,000 Data Products

$920,000 Research

$625,000 Training

$930,000 On-Demand

Technical Assistance

AASHTO Led

Oversight Board

Five Year period ~ 2011

Consolidated (ACS era) CTPP Purchase

Federal Technical Advisory GroupTRB Subcommittee -- List Serve (700 strong)Quarterly Newsletter -- OutreachSeveral Websites

AASHTO Oversight Board

StatesMel Adams, VT (Region I)

Nathan Erlbaum, NY (Region I)Hui Wei Shen, FL (Region II)Mike Thomas, GA (Region II)

Phillip Mescher, IA (Region III)Ahmad Jaber, UT (Region IV)

Ayalew Adamu, CA (Region IV

MPOsKuo-Ann Chiao, NYMTCJerry Duke, RTC Vegas

Steven Gayle, BMTSMell Henderson MARC

Arash Mirzaei, NCTCOGGuy Rousseau, ARC

Ex Officio MembersEd Christopher, FHWA

Alison Fields, Census BureauDeLania Hardy, AMPO

Elaine Murakami, FHWARobert Padgette, APTA

Alan Pisarski, ConsultantSteven Polzin, USF. CUTR

Nanda Srinivasan, TRB

Chair: Kent Cooper, NV (Region IV)Vice Chair: Jonette Kreideweis, MN (Region III)

AASHTO Liaison: Ronald McCready

17 voting members: 9 states and 8 MPOs

Consensus Decision Making

AASHTO Oversight Board

First meeting August 5-6, 2008

Approved Work Program

Program Management--Hire Person

Census Data Tabulations3- and 5-year data productsTAZ creation

Training and Technical Assistance

Research

Approved FHWA-CB IAA for $1.19 million

Census Data Tabulations3- and 5-year data productsTAZ creation

X

3-year Product Hits Snag Disclosure Review Board

All Tables rounded like 2000

No thresholds on Univariate Mode tables

Cell thresholds on all Mode by “X” tablesTables with failing cells will be suppressedIncludes all Resident and Workplace tables

Worker flows by Total Workers and Flows by Mode [7] no thresholds

So what does all this mean?

Feb 5: Submitted 3-year CTTP Data requestFeb. 14: Staff email suggests new DBR rulesMar. 12: New DRB rules receivedMarch-April: Discussed with communityMay 2: Sent response to DRBMay 12: Met with full DRBJune 2: AASHTO files appeal August 5: FHWA sends support letterAppeal set for August 28, 2008

http://trbcensus.com/drb

DRB Says…

“Too many” cross-tabulations byMeans of Transportation (Mode)

• Age• Class of Worker• Disability status• Earnings• Household Income• Poverty status • Industry• Occupation

• Length of U.S. residence• Minority Status (Y/N)• Time Leaving Home• Time Arriving (Part 2)• Travel Time• Vehicle Availability• Workers in Household• Age of Youngest Child

…makes for micro data record

Are the rules necessary?

We say NO*DRB Says yes

* ..and so does the Committee on National Statistics as well as Westat, a national survey firm

“The Census Bureau should undertake research to develop confidentiality protection rules and procedures for tabulations from the ACS that recognize the protection afforded to respondents by pooling the data over many months.”

---CNSTAT, 2007

The data is already protected

Administratively: Swapping, Imputation, complex weighting

Methodologically: Period estimate not point in time, very large weights and small sample sizes, MOEs at 90% confidence and addressed based sampling

Statistically: Estimated values change over time, data is cohorted, income and age adjustments

Census Data Tabulations3- and 5-year data productsTAZ creation

What we were planning a year ago

The TAZ story gets involved

To be paid out of IAA

Business Rules set

Cost estimate in

Last minute cost increase (50%)

Considering options

TAZ Issues, Questions and Options

Work Though contract with the CB Geography to developed TAZs in 2009, have them put into TIGER and yield to yet another last minute CB cost increase

Develop a block to TAZ equivalency process after 2010 blocks are defined that is independent of CB Geography at a potentially reduced cost

Will there be TAZs? What size will they be?What will the process be?When will it start?

5-year data product

Hinges on DRB posture and appeal to Data Stewardship Executive Policy Committee

Likely to be all synthetic

Needs some key research to be done

What else can be said?

X

Geography

The 3-year Product dream

MSA – EACH Principal City

Metropolitan Statistical Area

State-POW PUMA

State-PUMA

State-Place

State-County-MCD

State-County

Nation (US Total)

Product Structure

3-PartsPart 1- Place of Residence

Part 2- Place of Work

Part 3- Flows between Home and Work

(Extraction Software)

State

Stay Tuned

http://trbcensus.com/