Post on 13-Mar-2015
01
The 1966 Forth Road Bridge cost £20 million
Inflated to the year 2016the bridge should cost under £400 million
So why was it price at over £4,200 million? d
The Forth Replacement Crossing (FRC) is to be completed in 2016
Not the longest Around 25th from the top
Not the widest deck Others have 6 and 8 lanes
Not the longest span Around 7th from the top
Not the highest Millau bridge is 4 times higher
Not the most towers Only 3 , the Millau has 7
Not the longest viaducts Many are MILES long
Not environmentally difficult No earthquakes/ tornados
Issue 5a 12/10/2009 omnie@tiscali.co.uk
First – a wee bit history
2
ONLY SEVENTEEN MSPs TURNED UP
15th January 2009 - Forth Replacement Crossing Debate –
Scotland’s biggest ever project.
4th April 2000 – Holyrood Building Debate –
A presentation was arranged prior to the debate
ONLY SIXTEEN MSPs TURNED UP
SECTION 1
World Bridge Graphs
3
FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSINGThe MULTIMODAL option cost
£4.22 Billion
Cable Stayed Bridge
4
Towers
Stays
MULTIMODAL - Road & Tram
5
NOTE :
COSTSINFLATED TO
2016
6
COST of VARIOUS TYPES TYPES OF WORLD BRIDGES -£M
The FRC was the world’s most expensive bridge.
Skar
nsun
d (N
K)Bi
ll Em
erso
nZa
kim
Brid
geCl
ark
Brid
geVi
dyas
agar
Set
uVe
tera
n's G
lass
City
QEI
I THA
MES
Hard
ange
rM
illau
Viad
uct
Fort
h Br
idge
Orig
inal
Bob
Grah
amAr
thur
Rav
enel
Pana
ngRu
nyan
Hum
ber
Tata
raPo
nt d
e N
orm
andi
eRi
o- A
ntirr
ioSe
vern
Cro
ssin
gDo
ngha
i Va
sco
da G
ama
Hang
zou
Bay
Suto
ngAk
ashi
Kai
kyō
Ore
sund
Pro
ject
Fort
h
£-
£500
£1,000
£1,500
£2,000
£2,500
£3,000
£3,500
£4,000
£4,500
£36
£
84
£10
2 £
106
£13
6 £
146
£16
3 £
198
£31
9 £
357
£36
7 £
392
£49
7 £
498
£51
0 £
561
£56
7 £
576
£79
6 £
854
£94
1 £
1,08
1 £
1,08
1
£4,050
£4,109 £4,220
7Sk
arnsu
nd (NK)
Bill Em
erson
Zakim
Bridge
Clark B
ridge
Veteran
's Glas
s City
QEII TH
AMES
Millau Viad
uct
Bob Graham
Arthur R
aven
el
Panan
gTa
tara
Pont de N
ornman
die
Rio- Antirri
o
Seve
rn Cro
ssing
Vasco da G
ama
Sutong
Forth
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
36
84
102
106
146
163 31
9
367
392 49
7 561
567
576
796 94
1 1,08
1
4,220
FRC
COST of ONLY CABLE STAYED BRIDGES -£M
Again – the FRC isby far the most costly
08
Hangzo
u Bay
Runyan
Donghai
Vasco da G
ama
Oresund Pro
ject
Panan
g
Bob Graham
Sutong
Seve
rn Cro
ssing
Arthur R
aven
el
Akash
i Kaik
yō
Rio- Antirri
oFo
rth
Veteran
's Glas
s City
QEII TH
AMES
Millau Viad
uct
Humber
Pont de N
ornman
dieTa
tara
Clark B
ridge
Hardan
ger
Bill Em
erson
Skarn
sund (N
K)
Vidyasag
ar Se
tu
Zakim
Bridge
-
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
37.00
35.66
32.50
17.20
16.40
13.50
8.85
8.21
5.13
4.02
3.91
2.88
2.70 2.68
2.66
2.46
2.22 2.14
1.48 1.41
1.38
1.20
1.01
0.82
0.44 KmCOMPARATIVE LENGTH of WORLD BRIDGES
The FRC is tiny: a mere 25th in world ranking..
9
Tatar
a
Skarn
sund (N
K)
Panan
g
Bob Graham
Vasco da G
ama
Veteran
's Glas
s City
QEII TH
AMES
Bill Em
erson
Clark B
ridge
Seve
rn Cro
ssing
Arthur R
aven
el
Millau Viad
uct
Sutong
Rio- Antirri
o
Zakim
Bridge
Pont de N
ornman
dieFo
rth £-
£200
£400
£600
£800
£1,000
£1,200
£1,400
£1,600
£1,800
£5 £34 £35
£40 £53
£55 £59
£67 £72
£93 £94 £125
£132 £193 £226
£255
£1,563
FRC
COST OF BRIDGES PER METRE LENGTH -£100K
The average cost is under £200K per metre
The FRC was £1 ½ million pounds per metre
10
3.5.3 What They Typically CostThe typical cost of a cable stayed bridge ranges from $4,500 to $5,000 per Square metre
The FRC cost was $64,500 per square metre
011
1 Japan’s Pearl Bridge
2 Sweden/Denmark’s -Oresund Crossing
3 Scotland’s Multimodal FRC
The world has only had THREE £4 Billion crossings
012
The Pearl Bridge Japan Opened in 1998 for $4,300
The world’s longest suspension bridge -3,910 m
Earthquakes (8.5 Richter scale) –TMD pendulums
Tornadoes (180mph) – hinged-girder system
Fierce sea currents
Why is it so expensive
THE ORESUND CROSSING
13
The largest/longest Multimodal crossing ever built
SECTION 2
14
The Oresund Crossing
Forth Bridge
The Oresund ProjectThis Megastructure links Sweden & Denmark
Artificial Island
Road & RailTunnel
4050 metres
15
Road & RailBridge 7,850 metres
1616.4 Km
The Oresund CrossingSuperimposed in Fife
From South Queensferry to Kelty
17
An artificial island constructed to join the tunnel and the bridge
The Island is some 4 Km long
The FRC is 2.7Km long
18
An artificial island had to be constructed across the water to join the tunnel and the bridge
The Island is some 4 Km long
The FRC is 2.7Km long
A 4 km tunnel for shipping access
The Tunnel has road and rail
It is submerged into the dredged sea bed.
19
The BridgeRoad & Rail (multimodal)
The world’s longest - 5 MILES
3 times longer than the FRC
20
The Oresund Crossing cost £4.1 Billion *The Forth Crossing cost was priced at £4.2 Billion
The Oresund Project took 5 ½ years; and the FRC???
5 ½ years
21
Professor John Kay.
Do you know this man?
Chosen Financial Adviserto the
SCOTTISHGOVERNMENT.
Public lecture – Sept 2007 on the FRC
“Expressed astonishment”
“..more than 4 times the final cost of the Oresund bridge”
SECTION 3
22
THE SEVERN BRIDGE
The multimodal option was dropped in Dec 2008
We can compare now compare it with a similar UK crossing
23
FROM £4.22 billion
to
£2.34 billion
AN EXCELLENT COMPARISON
Both UK projects
Similar environments – over water etc.
Contemporary projects
Cable Stayed structures
24
COMPARING THE FRC WITH THE SEVERN BRIDGE
025
The 2016 cost is £810 Million*
The 1964 bridge cost £10 Million
The 1996 bridge cost £480 Million
Second Severn Crossing
*Transport Scotland have it at £890 million
026
Second Severn Crossing
Did the Welsh get value for money at £810 million
The average cost per metre is £200k, this is £150k
The average cost per sq metre is £4.5k, this is £4.5k
027
The Original Forth Bridge was built in 1966 costing £20MAt current costs - £300M The FRC is 8% longer – equates to £ 324MSo where do they arrive at £2,3400M???
The 2016 cost is £2,340 Million
The 1966 bridge cost £20 Million
A pro-rate 2016 bridge should cost under £500 Million
FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING
FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING
028
Are the Scots getting value for money at £2320 million?
The average cost per metre is £200k, this is £850k
The average cost per sq metre is £4.5k, this is £32k
029
Lengthm
Forth 2700Severn 5200
Lanes
46
RoadsKm4
18.5
BuildTime5.54
Cost£m
2,340810
Second Severn Crossing FORTH REPLACEMENT CROSSING
TWICE THE SIZE – A THIRD OF THE PRICE
….Transport Scotland has hit back …
THEIR ANALYSIS IS
“SUPERFICIAL and “MISLEADING”
30
Finally a look at other world bridges.
SECTION 4WORLD BRIDGES
Is the FRC really so expensive?
Q E II Bridge DARTFORD
Opened in 1991 at a cost of £86Million
031
Lengthm
Lanes Towers BuildTime
Cost2016
Q E II 2877 4 2 3 £139mForth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340m
10% longer and only 6% of the cost of the FRCThe Forth Bridge Engineering management contract alone cost £100M?
MILLAU VIADUCTFrance
Opened in 2004at a cost of
€350m
032
Lengthm
Lanes Towers BuildTime
Cost2016
Millau 2460 4 7 3 £400mForth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340m
Highest Bridge in the world – over 270 metres high – 7 remarkable towers.Broke many world records in technology
VASCO de GAMAOpened in 1998
at a cost of $1000m
033
Lengthm
Lanes Towers BuildTime
Cost2016
Vasco de Gama
17200 6 2 1.5 £941m
Forth 2700 4 3 5.5 £2,340m
18 months in construction. 6 lanes & 10 miles long.ALL FOR 40% OF THE COST
STONECUTTERS FRC
Carries Dual 3-lane highway Dual 3-lane highway
Designer ARUP ARUP
Design Cable-stayed bridge Cable-Stayed Bridge
Total length 1,600 m 2,700 m
Height 75 m Estimated 50 m
Longest span 1,018 m 1,300 m
34
STONECUTTERS BRIDGE HONG KONG
THE SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT USED THIS BRIDGE FOR COST DATA
Stonecutters costs are ALL INCLUSIVEProfitContingenciesFinancingRiskTaxes
Stonecutter’s crossing £245 million
..Transport Scotland...the price compared favourably with other similar structures……..
Forth replacement crossing . £2,340 million
35
Why was it rejected ?
SECTION 5THE TUNNEL OPTION
36
This detailed 80 page report was commission to examine FRC options
FORTH ESTUARY TRANSPORT AUTHORITYSecond Forth Road Crossing Consolidated report Jan 2005 FABER MAUNSELL
CONCLUSION
37
“....more expensive than a bridge...”
£598M
Moving forward from Jan 2005 to Dec 2007 this cost rose
TENFOLD………
Don’t believe it ? Read on…
38
• · Cable-stayed bridge £4.2 billion• · Suspension bridge £4.7 billion• · Bored Tunnel £6.6 billion
Finance and Sustainable Growth Secretary
John SwinneyScottish Parliament
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Do you know what the Eurotunnel cost??
I have set out the cost estimates for the options…..
Eurotunnel -26 mile sea crossing
FRC -1 mile river crossing
39
THE RIVER FORTH
CHANNEL TUNNEL
£6.6 Billion
£10.2 Billion
50 Km
8 Km
NOT ONE PARLIAMENTARIAN QUESTIONED THIS !!!!!
40
SECTION 6COSTING HISTORY
41
No Date Source Cost
2 Jan 05 Faber and Maunsell £500 m
1 Jun 04 FETA £500 m
3 Feb 07 Scottish Government £1,000+ m
4 Dec 07 Scottish Government £2,790 to £3,630 m
5 Jan 08 Scottish Government £3,250 to £4.220 m
WHY??
What should it cost?
42
Based on inflation only with the existing Forth Road Bridge £360 million
Based on the average cost ofCable Stayed Bridges £396 million
Based on the average cost permetre £440 million
Based on original Government estimates £500 million
43
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.”
Aldous Huxley