National Security Policy in the Clinton Administration

1993-1999

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Setting

Soviet Union dissolvedz Central organizing threat for five decades

is gonez Russia is weak politically & economically

z Strong nuclear powerz “loose nukes” threat

z Regional destabilization & breakup

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Setting“World Order” Structure Unclearz Polarity (constellation of great powers)

z Bipolar (1945-1972)z Multipolar (1972-1991)z Unipolar (1992-?)z How might system polarity affect national security

policy?z Democracy & Capitalism as norm

z End of competition of social systemsz “democratic peace” theory [major war impossible]

z Nuclear Weapons as war deterrentsz Nuclear weapons make major war impossible

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Setting

US & European publics turn to domestic focusz Bush foreign policy triumphs fail to win

electoratez Collapse of WP/E. European communismz Collapse of USSRz Gulf War

z Clinton Elected (it’s the economy, stupid!)

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Policy Debates

Academics, policy wonks, insiders, politicians4 Optionsz Isolationismz Liberal Internationalism (Carter)z Primacy (Realist 1)z Selective Engagement (Realist 2)

z A strategy of no strategy or visionz Watch & see

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Clinton National Security Orientation

US must play a role in the world commensurate with its powerEconomic growth is essentialz tied to global economic growth

Cold-War “orphan” international problems need attentionz environmentz population growthz political repression

International institutions should be engaged in pursuit of US goalsz UNz World Bank

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Implementation: Intervention I

Humanitarian Intervention & Nation Building for Regional Stability1992-1995 Somaliaz change from humanitarian mission to nation building Î US

Deathsz UN pulls out in 1995 Î Somalia syndrome

1994 Rwandaz 1 million deathsz no UN intervention, Somalia syndrome

Haitiz 1990-1994: turmoil following coup against Aristide Î thousands

of refugees at sea Î US problemz 1994 US sends 20,000 troops to end turmoilz US pulls out in 1999

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Implementation: Intervention II

Collective Security – NATOwar in Europe is dangerous to US national security interests Yugoslaviaz Croatia & Slovenia (1991)z Bosniaz Dayton Peace Accords (1995)z Kosovo

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Yugoslavia

Kosovo

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TerrorismWTC I 1993 [truck bomb]z 6 killedz >1000 injured

Khobar Towers 1997 [truck bomb]z 19 servicemen killed, 500 Americans & Saudis injured

Embassies 1998 [truck bombs]z Tanzania

z 11 deadz Kenya

z 213z 4000 wounded

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Clinton Response to Terror Attacks

Cruise-missile strikes on Afghanistan & Sudanz Was this adequate?z Why nothing more forceful?

z Somalia & Haiti-syndromez “Monica” affair

What was the message to Al Quaeda?

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Africa

back

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Nuclear Proliferation

Russia & “Loose Nukes”North Korea 1993-1994