Post on 11-Jan-2016
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Presentation to African Development Forum
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
25 - 29 October 1999
Tina James
International Development Research Centre
SOUTH AFRICAN IT INDUSTRY STRATEGY (SAITIS) BASELINE STUDIES
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SAITIS PROJECT
Funded by Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)
CAD $ 3,5 million over three years
Baseline studies funded by CIDA, with additional support from the Canadian International Development Research Centre (IDRC)
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BACKGROUND - ICT INITIATIVES
Foresight : 15 - 20 year forecast for ICTs in South Africa
e-commerce policy 1999 - 2000
National Qualifications Framework
• creation of ICT sector education and training authority - SETA
State IT Agency
Donor-related activities e.g. Acacia, ICT-Scan
South African IT Industry Strategy
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SAITIS BASELINE STUDIES
Two major components:
Overview of the IT Industry
Overview of ICT-related Jobs and Skills
Also addresses:
issues and challenges
future requirements for an ICT strategy
recommendations and actions
stimulate debate in SAITIS Working Groups
Website available by end of 1999
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METHODOLOGY
SAITIS Baseline studies:
• Methodology based on:– about 40 Interviews– 4 discussion Groups (8 - 12 per group)– review of secondary sources– mailscan (about 3 500 sent)– feedback to SAITIS Working Groups
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Industry Strategy
Where are we now?(Situation Analysis)
Where do we want to be?(Goals & Objectives Framework)
How will we get there?(Strategy Development)
What are we going to do it with?(Tactical Plans)
Internal Situation
External FactorsImplementation Planning
• Vision• Goals & Objectives• Strategic Thrusts• Strategies• Risk Assessment• Economic Model
Issues
STRATEGY DEVELOPMENTMETHODOLOGY
Constraints
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SOUTH AFRICAN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION BY AGE AND GENDER
-6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000
0 to 9
10 to 19
20 to 29
30 to 39
40 to 49
50 to 59
60 to 69
70+
Females Males
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SOUTH AFRICAN DEMOGRAPHICS
Population size: About 41 million
Urbanisation:54%
Literacy rate: 61,4%
46% of population live on or below subsistence level
One of the highest GINI coefficients
AIDS-related deaths in 1999: • 400 000 per year• expected 800 000 - 1 million per year• infection rates in excess of 23%
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Some Characteristics of the South African ICT Sector
• Dynamic
• Users of Technology - not Innovators
• Distribution Oriented
• Large Number of early adaptors - GSM and Internet
• Telecomms Liberalisation started - pace will increase
• Effective Control by Few Players
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IT Industry Spend (US $ 000s)
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
IT Hardware
IT Software
IT Services
Office Equipment
Internal
Telecomms
TOTAL IT Spend
1227 1321 1558 1525 1631 1717
287 330 386 456 633 669
876 938 1100 997 1202 1472
131 138 170 158 148 155
1212 1295 1328 1446 1485 1526
2666 2847 3023 4068 4185 4149
6400 6869 7564 8649 9283 9690
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Forecast Growth in Overall SA IT Vendor Revenues 1985 - 2002
(1 US$ = 6 SA Rand)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
4500085 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1
IT Revenues
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Number of South African Households with Internet Access
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
% Households with Internet access in the
home
0.5% 1.8% 4.1% 6.0% 7.4% 8.2% 9.2% 10.5%
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Why an IT Jobs and Skills Survey?
Data required on:
• Jobs available and planned for– IT industry (hardware, software, etc)– IT users (NGOs, associations, govt)
• Current trends in supply/demand• Income levels• Emigration / immigration statistics• Brain drain• Jobs profile
– part-time / contract / full-time– turnover rate– average length of service
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Why an IT Jobs and Skills Survey?
Data required on:
• Current skills levels• Future skills requirements• Training time• IT training spend• Labour Intensivity• Unionisation• Pipeline of potential skills
Little available at the detail required for SAITIS Baseline Studies
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FRAMEWORK FOR JOBS / SKILLS SCAN
Based on IT NATIONAL QUALIFICATIONS FRAMEWORK DOMAINS:
Information Systems and Technology Management
Systems Development
End-user computing
Data communications and networking
Computer operations
Hardware and computer architecture
IT education, training and development
IT sales and marketing, Other
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MAILSCAN
Data analysed:Employees by race / gender
Temporary / permanent employees
Vacancies / Terminations
Employment in 5 years time - forecasts
IT Training spend
Outsourcing
Social responsibility
R&D, etc.
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Employment of Professionals1998 - 2003
14604
72813
8393
6107
24690
16663
94761
616880
109094
14399
80526
8729
6595
28697
20190
125044
651584
121030
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas & WaterSupply
Construction
Trade
Transport &Communication
Finance
Services: Government
Services: Non-Government
2003
1998
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CURRENT AND FORECAST GROWTH - ENGINEERS
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1998 2003
Electrical/ElectronicEngineerEngineeringTechnologistTelecommsTechnologistEngineeringTechnicianTelecomsTechnicianOther Engineers
OtherTechnologists
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CURRENT AND FORECAST GROWTH - IT PROFESSIONALS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1998 2003
ComputerProgrammersSystems Analyst
CommsTechnologistMultimedia Design
Network Design
Website Developer
Hardware support
Software support
Other
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MIGRATION FIGURES - 1997
Occupation Emigration Immigration Net Migration
Engineers 428 99 -329
Medical Practitioners 73 45 -28
Medical Specialists 26 4 -22
Dental Professions 58 2 -56
Education & Related 353 125 -228
Accountant & related 277 27 -250
Other 962 305 -657
Managerial 885 357 -528
Artisans 371 111 -260
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SUPPLY / DEMAND TRENDS
< four years in service
IT imported skills too expensive; short-term contracts
Business services subsector is fastest growing - 32% growth over five years
Banking sector - 50% growth 1998 - 2003
Demand for all IT professionals - 50% growth
Need for experienced staff at senior level
Combination of business/ technical skills required
Oversupply in some areas e.g. MCSE
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HR STRATEGIES in the IT INDUSTRY
Salary structuring Name your price ==> huge salaries
Innovative package structuring
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HR STRATEGIES in the IT INDUSTRY
Retention strategies
Cross-skilling
Increased emphasis on training
Career planning
Internal promotions
Working environment
flexibility / working at home / prestige / holiday leave / promotion potential / share options
challenge of the job is important
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EMERGING THEMES
DEVELOP
APPROPRIATE
SKILLS
BASE
LIBERALISATION
OF
TELECOMMS
INDUSTRY
DEVELOP
STRONGER
ENTREPRENEURIAL
BASE
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FOUR CLUSTERS
ENABLINGENVIRONMENTCOMPETITIVENESS
ISSUES
CREATING A SAINFORMATION SOCIETY
HUMAN RESOURCEDEVELOPMENT
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GENERAL ISSUES
Need for a national strategic vision no national objectives lack of coordination education and training must be part of the national IT strategy
(not separate initiative)
Indicators are problematic Cannot read the changing character of the IT industry Difficult to assess current status in a meaningful way Comparing apples with pears - inconsistent
No coordinated effort (yet) to streamline activities relating to HR measurement
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HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
Education and Training• all levels (primary / secondary / tertiary)• coordinated pipeline of skills development• stronger government/ private sector /educational linkages• create IT apprenticeships /proposed learnerships• private sector to develop mentoring schemes• vendors to play a stronger role in training• government to play a more prominent role model in IT
adoption and usage• short-circuit training to alleviate short-term needs• multi-skilling to be encouraged
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HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
Brain drainWorldwide phenomenon - SA no exception
Official figures about 35+% of actual (233,609 compared to 82,811)
Need to develop different strategies:
• Recruit IT staff from other counries• Use ex-South Africans or those still working outside SA
– SANSA initiative• ?
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CREATING AN INFORMATION SOCIETY IN SA
Universal accessIncrease pool of IT-literate South Africans
Creating general IT awarenessMassive IT awareness campaign
“Working for Water” model ===> “Working for Information “ programme
Promotion of IT-literacy: promotion on TV soaps,. etc