Post on 25-Jan-2015
description
11Presented at the Conference on Climate Change organized by the Kalikasan-People’s Network for the Environment on April 20-21, 2009 at the Blai Kalinaw.
22Klima/Manila Observatory
Climate ChangeClimate Changeandand
Its Impacts on AgricultureIts Impacts on Agriculture11
by:
Lourdes V. TibigLourdes V. Tibig22
Climate change science
- IPCC AR4
- Fingerprints: Philippine Scene
Impacts
- Current climate variability
- El Niño/La Niña events
- Tropical cyclone passage/occurences
- Climate risks
OutlineOutline
Ghg concentrations are increasing rapidly and are now much higher than they have been for at least 420,000 years
We live in unusual times!We live in unusual times!
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
We are committed to a warming of 0.2°C/decade
Widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
Variations of Earth’s surface temperature for the past 140 years
1900 2000 2100
PROJECTED TEMPERATURE CHANGE
Warming in the last 50 years is UNUSUAL in the last 1300 years
How have the earth’s surface temperature changed?
• 11 of the last twelve years: warmest years since 1850
• More frequent hot days, hot nights, and heat waves but less frequent cold days, cold nights and frost over the last 50 years
• More intense and longer droughts since the 1970s
• More frequent, persistent and intense El Niño since the mid-1970s
Signals of climate change….
• We have pumped enough greenhouse gases into the atmosphere to warm the planet for many decades to come,
• The Earth’s natural system will be affected for decades even if ghg emissions are reduced NOW.
Is climate change inevitable?Is climate change inevitable?
• There are projected increases of from 1.1°C to 6.4°C during the 21st century.
• For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2°C per decade is projected.
Are there projections for further warming?Are there projections for further warming?
What is happening in the Philippines?What is happening in the Philippines?
An increase of 0.6104°C from 1951-2006
Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
y = 0.0109x - 0.2423
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06
Year
Tem
per
atu
re A
no
mal
y (°
C)
Anomaly
5 year running mean
Linear (5 year running mean)
An increase of 0.3472°C from 1951-2006
Observed Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
0.947774998
y = 0.0062x - 0.1747
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6
Year
Tem
per
atu
re A
no
mal
y (°
C)
Anomaly
5 year running mean
Linear (5 year running mean)
An increase of 0.8904°C from 1951-2006, increase in minimum temperatures almost 3 times increase in maximum temperatures
Observed Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
y = 0.0159x - 0.3266
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 1 6
Year
Tem
per
atu
re A
no
mal
y (°
C)
Anomaly
5 year running mean
Linear (5 year running mean)
Tracks of tropical cyclones that entered the PAR during the period 1948-2005 1128 tropical cyclones
Annual frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing the Philippines (1948-2006)
Total = 1148, Mean = 19 to 20 , Std. Dev. = 4, Max = 32 , Min = 11Total = 1148, Mean = 19 to 20 , Std. Dev. = 4, Max = 32 , Min = 11528 T.C. or 46% crossed /land fall in the Country528 T.C. or 46% crossed /land fall in the CountryAverage crossing = 9 T.C.Average crossing = 9 T.C.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Not Crossing the Philippines
Land falling/Crossing the Philippines
Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)
Average tropical cyclone tracks (1948-2005)
Anomaly of Annual Philippine Rainfall With Normal Base Period 1961- 1990
-150-125-100-75-50-25
0255075
100125150
Annual5 years mean
Percentage of Annual Rainfall associated with the passage of Tropical Cyclones
(1951-2005)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
NAIA 429PortArea 425
Science Garden 430Sangley Point 428
Vigan 222Tuguegaro 233Baguio City 328
Dagupan 325Iba, Zambales 324Cubi Pt,Subic 426
Ambulong 432Calapan 431
Puerto Princesa 618Cuyo 630
Coron 526
Itbayat 132Basco Synop 135
Calayan 133Aparri 232
Cabanatuan 330Casiguran 336
Alabat 435Infanta 434
Romblon 536
Masbate 543Daet 440
Legaspi 444Virac Synop 446Virac Radar 447Roxas City 538
Iloilo 637
Catarman 546Catbalogan 548
Tacloban City 550Dumaguete 642
Mactan 646Maasin 648
Surigao City 653Hinatuan 755
Dipolog 741Lumbia 747
Cagayan De Oro 748Malaybalay 751
Davao 753Zamboanga 836
Station Names
% of Rainfall
% Annual RR due to TC % Annual RR due other Wx Systems
FREQUENCY OF FLOODS IN CITIES AND MUNICIPALITIES
THE STUDY ON THE NATIONWIDE FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT AND THE FLOOD MITIGATION PLAN FOR THE SELECTED AREAS IN THE REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES: : JICA, 2004
D O S T
-
P A G A S A
Trends of extreme events
Results:• Majority of stations show an increase in hot days and warm nights
Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall
HOT DAYS
WARM NIGHTS
Results:
• There are few significant decreases in hot days at coastal stations (Aparri, Virac, Puerto Princesa), but this same behavior is also seen in coastal stations of northern and western Australia (Griffiths, et.al, 2005)
Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall
Results: • Decreases in cold nights and cool days are significant and almost all throughout the country. Again, this is spatially coherent across the broad Asia-Pacific region ( Manton, et. al., 2001, Griffiths, et.al., 2005
Trends in extreme daily temperatures and rainfall
COOL DAYS
COLD NIGHTS
RAIN DAYS
TOTAL RAINFALL
Rainfall Indices• Most results are not significant. Generally, increases in total
rainfall and number of raindays, again in the Visayas.
• Increases in intensity and frequency of extreme rainfall events especially in the Visayas
Rainfall Indices
INTENSITY FREQUENCY
ImpactsImpacts
Not adequately known:• On pest infestations• On ability of livestock to adapt to physiological stresses • on aggregated market sector effects (changes in GDP)
Impacts of changes in climate extremes:
Yield losses can be severe if temp > critical limits for even shorter periods;
Known impacts:
Temperature increases beyond a threshold can affect key development stages of some crops;
• Spikelet sterility in rice• Loss of pollen viability in maize• Tubers’ development in potatoes
Increased flood, landslide, mudslide events (and damages);
Some ecosystems show effects quickly (ex. Coral bleaching can occur in a single exceptionally warm season); and
Changes in the frequency of extreme events may disrupt some ecosystems as a result of differences in response times of species.
• Risks to human life, risk of infectious disease epidemics• Coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and infrastructure• damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral reefs and mangroves
Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities, and mean and peak precipitation intensities
• flood, landslide and avalanche damage• Soil erosion• flood runoff could increase recharge of some flood plain aquifers• Pressure on government and private flood insurance systems and
disaster relief
More intense precipitation events
• cold-related human morbidity and mortality• risk of damage to a number of crops• range and activity of some pests and disease vectors• heating energy demand
Higher minimum temperatures, and fewer cold days, frost days, and cold waves over nearly all land areas
• incidence of deaths and serious illness in older people and urban poor• Heat stress in livestock and wildlife• risk of damage to a number of crops• electric cooling demand• energy supply reliability
Higher maximum temperatures, more hot days and heat waves over nearly all land areas
Projected impactsProjected changes
Examples of climate variability and extreme climate events and their impacts:
Documentation (done in 2000) of impacts of
extreme climate events (ECEs) showed a very
clear link between ECEs and adverse impacts
on agriculture, water and coastal resources,
health and environment, including disaster
management
How vulnerable are we?How vulnerable are we?
Preliminary vulnerability and adaptation (V & A)
assessments in 5 most important sectors
(agriculture, water and coastal resources,
human health and forestry already indicated
high vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate
change
Lower capacity to adapt due to lack of financial,
institutional and technological resources
How vulnerable are we?How vulnerable are we?
Major natural disasters around the world, 1963-1992
Let’s take a look at natural disastersLet’s take a look at natural disasters
Major natural disasters in the Philippines
Some statistics on most disastrous tropical cyclones
P 0.8 B3. Kadiang 1993
P 10.8 B2. Rosing 1995
P 10.8 B1. Ruping 1990
DamagesDamagesTropical CycloneTropical Cyclone
On agriculture and food supply Too much or too little rains?
One tonne of imported rice ~ 1000 tonnes of H2O
high temperatures
spikelet fertility
pest and diseases Most fundamental of human need (food) is at great risk
Potential health impacts of climate and its change
What would climate change mean in the long term? Freshwater availability in Southeast Asia
to decrease along with population growth and increasing demand arising from higher standards of living, could adversely affect millions by 2050;
Coastal areas especially heavily-populated megadeltas will be at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the sea, and in some flooding from the rivers;
Risk of hunger is projected to remain very high in several developing countries (decrease in crop yields);
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrheal disease (primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise due to projected changes in water cycles;
Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance/toxicity of cholera; and
Climate change is expected to impinge on the sustainable development of most developing countries of Asia as it compounds pressures on natural resources and the environment.
Tipping point?Tipping point?
To prevent a global temperature rise above 2oC, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has to be stabilised in the range 450 or 550 ppm
Current CO2 concentration is 380 ppm and has risen by around 100 ppm since the 1800s.
““Only the minimum emissions Only the minimum emissions scenarios - a deep green future-can scenarios - a deep green future-can
prevent global temperatures from prevent global temperatures from rising more than 2rising more than 2ooC relative to C relative to
before the start of our coal before the start of our coal and oil age.”and oil age.”
Tyndall Technical Report, 2006
E-mail address: lvtibig@yahoo.com