Post on 05-Jan-2016
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欧洲债务危机：原因，解决方法及对中国的影响
Michele Geraci （杰拉奇）
Head of China Program - Global Policy InstituteSenior Research Fellow and Adjunct Professor of Finance -Zhejiang University
Visiting Assistant Professor of Finance – University of Nottingham, Ningbo
Eurozone Crisis：Origin, Solutions and Impact on China
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• Head of China – Global Policy Institute, London• Senior Research Fellow and Adjunct Professor of Finance –
Zhejiang University• Visiting Assistant Professor of Finance – Nottingham University
• Electronic Engineering – Graduate degree, University of Palermo (University College London)
• Master in Business Administration (MBA) - Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management
Personal Introduction
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• Merrill Lynch Investment Banking – Associate
• Donaldson, Lufkin and Jenrette – Vice President, Head of Latin America and Co-Head of Europe Telecom Research
• Bank of America – Director, Co-Head of Europe Telecoms
• Pali Capital – Managing Director, Head of Europe Telecoms
• Schroders Asset Management – Head of European Media, Telecom
Personal Introduction
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Agenda
• Introduction to the EU and the Eurozone
• Reasons for the current crisis
• Impact on China
• Recent Events
• Q&A
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Other Data
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Other Data
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Other Data
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Europe： brief history
• 1945 - End of WWII• 1952 – Treaty of Paris signed (France, Italy, Holland, Belgium and
Germany): European Community formally established• 1958 – Treaty of Rome signed• 1973 – England joins• 1992： Treaty of Maastricht – path to Eurozone• 2012： 27 countries are part of the EU 。
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Message 1： Not Long after the end of WWI, Europe had been re-united
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EU System
• Free flow of goods and services• Tax-free trade area• Free flow of people• No custom, no need for ID card (ex Schengen)• All citizens from any of the 27 countries enjoys
same rights and befenits
Message2: EU basically looks as if it was a single country
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Eurzozone:’99First Stage
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Eurozone ‘01：
Greece joins
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Eurozone ‘12：
17 countries
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Convergence Criteria ：趋同标准• If a country wants to join the Eurozone, it
must fulfill certain conditions
• 如果一个国家想加入欧元区，他就必须满足几个条件。
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Convergence Criteria ：趋同标准• Inflation Rate （通货膨胀） : <1.5% higher than av. of
best three other countries• Government Deficit/GDP ( 政府赤字） <3%• Government Debt/GDP （政府债务与 GDP 比
率） <60%• Interest Rates ( 利息率） < 2% more than three lowest
countries
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InflationInflation 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
奥地利 1.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.7% 2.2% 3.2% 0.4% 1.7% 3.6% Austria
比利时 1.5% 1.9% 2.5% 2.3% 1.8% 4.5% 0.0% 2.3% 3.5% Belgium
塞浦路斯 4.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 4.4% 0.2% 2.6% 3.5% Cyprus
爱沙尼亚 1.4% 3.0% 4.1% 4.5% 6.7% 10.6% 0.2% 2.7% 5.1% Estonia
芬兰 1.3% 0.1% 0.8% 1.3% 1.6% 3.9% 1.6% 1.7% 3.3% Finland
法国 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 3.2% 0.1% 1.7% 2.3% France
德国 1.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 0.2% 1.1% 2.5% Germany
希腊 3.4% 3.0% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 4.2% 1.4% 4.7% 3.1% Greece
爱尔兰 4.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.7% 2.8% 3.1% -1.7% -1.6% Ireland
意大利 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 3.5% 0.7% 1.7% 2.9% Italy
卢森堡 2.5% 3.2% 3.8% 3.0% 2.7% 4.1% 0.0% 2.8% 3.7% Luxembourg
马耳他 1.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 0.7% 4.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% Malta
荷兰 2.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.9% 2.5% Netherlands
葡萄牙 3.3% 2.5% 2.1% 3.0% 2.4% 2.7% -0.9% 1.4% 3.6% Portugal
斯洛伐克 8.4% 7.5% 2.8% 4.3% 1.9% 3.9% 0.9% 0.7% 4.1% Slovakia
斯洛文尼亚 5.7% 3.7% 2.5% 2.5% 3.8% 5.5% 0.9% 2.1% 2.1% Slovenia
西班牙 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% 2.8% 4.1% -0.2% 2.0% 3.1% Spain
Smallest 1.0% 0.1% 0.8% 1.3% 0.7% 2.2% -1.7% -1.6% 2.1%Second Smallest 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% -0.9% 0.7% 2.3%Third Smalles 1.3% 1.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 2.8% -0.2% 0.9% 2.4%
Average Average Smallest1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 2.5% -0.9% 0.0% 2.3%
条件 (Average +1.5%) Maastricht Condition2.7% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 4.0% 0.6% 1.5% 3.8%
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InflationInflation 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
奥地利 1.3% 2.0% 2.1% 1.7% 2.2% 3.2% 0.4% 1.7% 3.6% Austria
比利时 1.5% 1.9% 2.5% 2.3% 1.8% 4.5% 0.0% 2.3% 3.5% Belgium
塞浦路斯 4.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2% 4.4% 0.2% 2.6% 3.5% Cyprus
爱沙尼亚 1.4% 3.0% 4.1% 4.5% 6.7% 10.6% 0.2% 2.7% 5.1% Estonia
芬兰 1.3% 0.1% 0.8% 1.3% 1.6% 3.9% 1.6% 1.7% 3.3% Finland
法国 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 3.2% 0.1% 1.7% 2.3% France
德国 1.0% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 2.3% 2.8% 0.2% 1.1% 2.5% Germany
希腊 3.4% 3.0% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 4.2% 1.4% 4.7% 3.1% Greece
爱尔兰 4.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.7% 2.8% 3.1% -1.7% -1.6% Ireland
意大利 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 3.5% 0.7% 1.7% 2.9% Italy
卢森堡 2.5% 3.2% 3.8% 3.0% 2.7% 4.1% 0.0% 2.8% 3.7% Luxembourg
马耳他 1.9% 2.7% 2.5% 2.6% 0.7% 4.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% Malta
荷兰 2.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 2.2% 1.0% 0.9% 2.5% Netherlands
葡萄牙 3.3% 2.5% 2.1% 3.0% 2.4% 2.7% -0.9% 1.4% 3.6% Portugal
斯洛伐克 8.4% 7.5% 2.8% 4.3% 1.9% 3.9% 0.9% 0.7% 4.1% Slovakia
斯洛文尼亚 5.7% 3.7% 2.5% 2.5% 3.8% 5.5% 0.9% 2.1% 2.1% Slovenia
西班牙 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.6% 2.8% 4.1% -0.2% 2.0% 3.1% Spain
条件 2.7% 2.6% 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 4.0% 0.6% 1.5% 3.8%
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Government Deficit 财政赤字
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Government Deficit2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
奥地利 0.0% -0.7% -1.5% -4.4% -1.7% -1.5% -0.9% -0.9% -4.1% -4.4% Austria
比利时 0.4% -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -2.7% 0.1% -0.3% -1.3% -5.8% -4.1% Belgium
塞浦路斯 -2.2% -4.4% -6.6% -4.1% -2.4% -1.2% 3.5% 0.9% -6.1% -5.3% Cyprus
爱沙尼亚 -0.1% 0.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 2.5% 2.4% -2.9% -2.0% 0.2% Estonia
芬兰 5.1% 4.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 4.1% 5.3% 4.3% -2.5% -2.5% Finland
法国 -1.5% -3.1% -4.1% -3.6% -2.9% -2.3% -2.7% -3.3% -7.5% -7.1% France
德国 -3.1% -3.8% -4.2% -3.8% -3.3% -1.6% 0.2% -0.1% -3.2% -4.3% Germany
希腊 -4.5% -4.8% -5.6% -7.5% -5.2% -5.7% -6.5% -9.8% -15.8% -10.6% Greece
爱尔兰 0.9% -0.4% 0.4% 1.4% 1.7% 2.9% 0.1% -7.3% -14.2% -31.3% Ireland
意大利 -3.1% -3.1% -3.6% -3.5% -4.4% -3.4% -1.6% -2.7% -5.4% -4.6% Italy
卢森堡 6.1% 2.1% 0.5% -1.1% 0.0% 1.4% 3.7% 3.0% -0.9% -1.1% Luxembourg
马耳他 -6.4% -5.8% -9.2% -4.7% -2.9% -2.8% -2.4% -4.6% -3.7% -3.6% Malta
荷兰 -0.2% -2.1% -3.1% -1.7% -0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% -5.6% -5.1% Netherlands
葡萄牙 -4.3% -2.9% -3.0% -3.4% -5.9% -4.1% -3.1% -3.6% -10.1% -9.8% Portugal
斯洛伐克 -6.5% -8.2% -2.8% -2.4% -2.8% -3.2% -1.8% -2.1% -8.0% -7.7% Slovakia
斯洛文尼亚 -4.0% -2.4% -2.7% -2.3% -1.5% -1.4% 0.0% -1.9% -6.1% -5.8% Slovenia
西班牙 -0.5% -0.2% -0.3% -0.1% 1.3% 2.4% 1.9% -4.5% -11.2% -9.3% Spain
欧元区 -1.9% -2.6% -3.1% -2.9% -2.5% -1.3% -0.7% -2.1% -6.4% -6.2% Euro17
条约的条件 -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% Criteria
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Government Deficit2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
奥地利 0.0% -0.7% -1.5% -4.4% -1.7% -1.5% -0.9% -0.9% -4.1% -4.4% Austria
比利时 0.4% -0.1% -0.1% -0.3% -2.7% 0.1% -0.3% -1.3% -5.8% -4.1% Belgium
塞浦路斯 -2.2% -4.4% -6.6% -4.1% -2.4% -1.2% 3.5% 0.9% -6.1% -5.3% Cyprus
爱沙尼亚 -0.1% 0.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 2.5% 2.4% -2.9% -2.0% 0.2% Estonia
芬兰 5.1% 4.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 4.1% 5.3% 4.3% -2.5% -2.5% Finland
法国 -1.5% -3.1% -4.1% -3.6% -2.9% -2.3% -2.7% -3.3% -7.5% -7.1% France
德国 -3.1% -3.8% -4.2% -3.8% -3.3% -1.6% 0.2% -0.1% -3.2% -4.3% Germany
希腊 -4.5% -4.8% -5.6% -7.5% -5.2% -5.7% -6.5% -9.8% -15.8% -10.6% Greece
爱尔兰 0.9% -0.4% 0.4% 1.4% 1.7% 2.9% 0.1% -7.3% -14.2% -31.3% Ireland
意大利 -3.1% -3.1% -3.6% -3.5% -4.4% -3.4% -1.6% -2.7% -5.4% -4.6% Italy
卢森堡 6.1% 2.1% 0.5% -1.1% 0.0% 1.4% 3.7% 3.0% -0.9% -1.1% Luxembourg
马耳他 -6.4% -5.8% -9.2% -4.7% -2.9% -2.8% -2.4% -4.6% -3.7% -3.6% Malta
荷兰 -0.2% -2.1% -3.1% -1.7% -0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% -5.6% -5.1% Netherlands
葡萄牙 -4.3% -2.9% -3.0% -3.4% -5.9% -4.1% -3.1% -3.6% -10.1% -9.8% Portugal
斯洛伐克 -6.5% -8.2% -2.8% -2.4% -2.8% -3.2% -1.8% -2.1% -8.0% -7.7% Slovakia
斯洛文尼亚 -4.0% -2.4% -2.7% -2.3% -1.5% -1.4% 0.0% -1.9% -6.1% -5.8% Slovenia
西班牙 -0.5% -0.2% -0.3% -0.1% 1.3% 2.4% 1.9% -4.5% -11.2% -9.3% Spain
欧元区 -1.9% -2.6% -3.1% -2.9% -2.5% -1.3% -0.7% -2.1% -6.4% -6.2% Euro17
条约的条件 -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% -3% Criteria
GRE, ITA, POR almost always exceed criteria
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Debt/GDP
four countries “always”exceeded criteria
Spain: RE
bubble
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Debt/GDP
Attention： France and Germany are not too ‘in good shape, either
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Debt/GDP
Eurozone and EU members performance: UK???
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Interest Rates
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Convergence Criteria：met or not ？• Inflation： in 2010 ， 12 countries did not meet criteria ！• Gov’t Deficit： in ’09 and ‘10， 15 countries did not
meet criteria!• Debt/GDP: Greece and Italy ratio always above: EU
average always above criteria!
Message 3: Eurozone： basically, never met, almost never, at least
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Why Greece so serious ？
Message 4：“ reciprocal help”: this concept is now in doubt
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Crisis: Soft reasons
• 27 countries• 27 electoral democracies， 54 different points of view ！• Culture, history, technology, language， custom,
food， economic structure， social structure, etc..not at all the same ！
Message 5： Unification process not easy
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Crisis“hard”reasons• Relaxed lending practices• Excessive investment• Risk assessment not proper• Global Imbalances• Improper fiscal policies• Socialise losses• Contagion Problems• Single Currency!!!
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Reaganomics Benefits to Chinese exports
Accumulation of FX Reserves
Trade Imbalance, leading to protectionism
Purchase of US bonds
Financing US consumption
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Crisis： 3 examples• Ireland Excessive Inv， Real Estate
• Greece Civil Servants and salaries
• Italy loss of competiveness， low efficiency ratios
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Reasons for the crisisWe must acknowledge that Europe faces two distinct problems: Sovereign Debt crisis and Eurozone Crisis
•The first one is due to individual countries bad fiscal policies
•The second is due to structural problems 。
Message 6： Debt crisis and Eurozone crisis are two different things
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Conditions for monetary area
1. Relax the mandate of the ECB
2. 财政整合 – Fiscal Integration
3. Fully implement people’s mobility (Dakota)
4. 。。。？？？
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Possible Solutions
1. Generally, Central banks look after inflation and economic growth: a balanced mandate, but..
2. ECB’s only responsibility is price stability (CPI) ： – Unrealistic goal （ 17 countries ）– ECB is not concerned with stimulating growth
3. AND, even worse, When you have debt you should push inflation up, but that is not what the ECB does
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Possible Solutions
2. Eurozone has no fiscal integration– currently, each country look after its own budget– What about China and the US ？– A German tax envoy goes to Greece to collect
taxes and decides to spend the money in Berlin– Can people accept this ？
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Possible Solutions
3. Realize full people mobility– Easy in theory, not in practice– Language, culture, society, political systems– What about China and the US ？– Dakota can be emptied, but Belgium?
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Possible Solutions4. Break up of the EURO ！
– Or, reduce the scope– Re-introduce individual currencies– Every country can choose its own monetary policy（ print
money ）– Can depreciate currency， stimulate exports (Short term
is fine)– Painful in the short term ， but successful in the long term
PIIGS can leave, or Germany can leave EUROzone
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Possible Solutions
Message 7： Sacrifice the Euro to Save the European Union
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欧元区已经解体了
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Impact on China
• The Chinese economy, as a whole, is becoming less dependent on exports…apparently
• This year, there maybe a trade deficit
Therefore…
A slowing demand from Europe for Chinese goods is not going to have a big impact on Chinese economy – True?
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Key points on the RMB
• Countries have sovereign right to set it exchange rate as they wish (US, Italy, UK)
• No one knows the real value of the RMB
• The impact of a possible revaluation of RMB on US exports in far from clear,
• But, impact on China can be negative
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Plaza Accord and US$ devaluation
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Impact on China
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Impact on China
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Impact on China
• China should come to the rescue of Europe
• Not for charity, but to protect it’s own interest
• Chinese policy makers may underestimate this problem
Message 8： Chinese policy makers must pay closer attention
Summary1 Not Long after the end of WWI, Europe had been re-united
2 EU basically looks as if it was a single country
3 Eurozone： basically, never met, almost never, at least
4 “reciprocal help”:this concept is now in doubt
5 Unification process not easy
6 Debt crisis and Eurozone crisis are two different things
7 Sacrifice the Euro to Save the European Union
8 Chinese policy makers must pay closer attention
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最近的时间• 2011 年 10 月份：欧盟高峰会：新的财政
条约• 2012 年三月份：希腊新的纾困• 2012 年四月份：法国大选